Industrial Investment:APICrude oil growth rate is not as expected Oil prices have bottomed out and rebounded

Industrial Investment:APIcrude oilThe growth rate is not as expected Oil prices have bottomed out and rebounded
2017year3month1day
Crude oil:
On Tuesday, crude oil bottomed out and rebounded, with the United StatesAPIThe lower than expected increase in crude oil inventories helped crude oil rebound at the end of the trading day, but it still closed slightly lower on the day and remained fluctuating at a high level within the range. United StatesNYMEX 4Monthly crude oilfuturesfall0.04USD, decline0.07%Report54.01dollar/bucket,Monthly cumulative increase2.22%;ICEBrent4Monthly crude oil futures decline0.61%Report55.59dollar/Barrel, with a cumulative increase of last month1.69%。
Although the closing prices of crude oil in the two regions were basically the same on Tuesday, the fluctuations on that day were still relatively large. Due to the presence ofAPIBefore the release of crude oil inventories, there were widespread concerns in the market that inventory growth would exceed expectations. Coupled with the rise of the US dollar index, crude oil in both regions quickly fluctuated to the lowest level of the day53.16and55.40. After the release of data from the New York market, crude oil quickly rose, achievingVType rebound. According to the latest data, as of2month24During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased250.210000 barrels to5.18Billion barrels, expected to increase310Ten thousand barrels.
In addition to the lower than expected increase in US crude oil inventories, the rise in intraday crude oil was also boosted by the following two factors. Firstly,WSJAccording to reporters, the White House denies previous rumors about an executive order for ethanol fuel. Previously, the President of the Renewable Energy Association of the United States stated that the White House is preparing to change the obligations of biofuels to all parties involved(From importers and refiners to end operators of storage, transportation, and sometimes blended fuels)Administrative orders. Next, ten minutes later, Reuters reported that,2monthOPECThe fulfillment rate of crude oil production reduction will remain stable at94%, higher than previously expected82%。
Beijing time today10:00US President Trump will speak in Congress, and investors also need to closely monitor whether Trump will mention clues related to energy. Before the content of his speech was announced, there was a strong risk aversion in the market, which is expected to exert pressure on oil prices. In addition, you also need to pay attention to the United States in the eveningEIACrude oil inventory, it is expected that the volatility of crude oil will increase today.
USD Index:
On Tuesday in New York, the United States announcedGDPEconomic data basically meets expectations, US Q4GDPThe annual rate correction value is1.9%Expected to be2.0%;GDPThe correction value for the deflator index is2.0%Expected to be2.1%. But the data has little effect on boosting the US dollar. Overnight, Federal Reserve Congressman Dudley delivered a hawkish speech, stating that the reasons for tightening policy are greatly strengthened and may be subject to interest rate hikes in a relatively short period of time. Official Williams even exclaimed that the issue of interest rate hikes will be addressed3The decision on monthly interest rates has received serious consideration from central bank decision-makers. In recent days, Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish remarks, increasing expectations of interest rate hikes and increasing their probability66%. This led to a bottoming out and rebound of the US dollar, forming a trend in New York tradingVType rebound, continue to remain stable at101Above the checkpoint. Today, the market closely follows Trump's congressional speech, which covers policy issues such as Obama's healthcare reform, infrastructure construction, tax reform, and immigration. However, Trump seems to have not disclosed too many details, and the reaction of the financial market has not been fully manifested yet. It is expected to fluctuate significantly in the European and American period today. In addition, evening inflation dataPCEIt is also worth paying attention to.
technical analysis
US crude oil:
Daily chart: still affected by the top of the interval54.15The suppression on the front line has strong resistance at this level, and breaking through this resistance in the short term may be difficult. However, the lower shadow line is longer, indicating stronger support below.
4Hour chart:MA100The nearby support is expected to retest the resistance of oil prices54.35。
Hour chart: from54.20The first line of oscillation plummeted to53Near the checkpoint, it has temporarily rebounded to54Above the integer level, we need to confirm whether it can stabilize this position within the day.
Overview: There is a possibility of high levels in the upper exploration range. Be cautious during the day and it is recommended to53.70Short positions in nearby light positions, let's take a look first54.15Look again55.00Stop loss set at53.50Below.
Brent crude oil:
Daily chart: still affected by the top of the interval57.20Frontline constraints, but the retreat of oil prices remains stable20Above the daily moving average, the top position of the interval may be re measured.
4Hour chart: Rush up and fall back toMA100Supported by this position nearby, the random indicator is bullish, indicating a possibility of upward movement.
Hour chart: effective breakthrough56.60The first line position will accelerate upwards.
Overview: There may be an upward trend. Suggest within the day56.30Long on the front line, take a look first57Look again57.50Stop loss set at56Below.
Follow on Wednesday:
Australia2monthRBAAnnual rate of commodity price index
Switzerland1monthUBSConsumption indicators
Switzerland2monthSVMEPurchasing Manager Index
Italy/France/Germany/eurozone2Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value
Germany2Monthly unemployment rate/Unemployment report
Bank of England1Monthly mortgage loan permit/change
britain1monthM4Monthly rate of money supply/the annual rate
Germany2monthCPIHarmony and HarmonyCPIMonthly rate/Annual rate initial value
U.S.A1Monthly personal income and expenditure rate
U.S.A1monthPCE And the corePCEAnnual rate of price index/Monthly rate
Canada2monthPMIFinal value
U.S.A2monthISMManufacturing Index
U.S.A1Monthly construction expenditure monthly rate
Bank of Canada3Monthly interest rate resolution
Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in crude oil inventory
Speech by Federal Reserve official Brad