Huang Yijin: Gold and SilverTDRisks cannot be ignored, and Trump remains a key focus of market attention

　

　  since2month18Recently, the world's largestgoldETF——SPDRThe position has not changed and remains at841.17Tons, this suggests that many fund managers are not significantly optimistic about the future of gold in the medium to long term. Although in the past few weeks, political risks in Europe, especially the election situation in France, have boosted the market's risk aversion, it is currently widely believed that the French far right candidate Le Pen will not win the second round of elections. This week's risk aversion has weakened, causing gold prices to lose some of their further upward momentum. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that,2017Since the beginning of the year, the economic data in the United States has remained relatively strong1monthCPIMonth on month increase0.6%, creating2013year2The largest month on month increase since the beginning of the month; And the market expects the evening21:30The fourth quarter of the United States releasedGDPThere will be some upward revision; The heavyweight of the United States will also be announced on Wednesday evening1monthPCEThe price index, currently expected by the market, is also relatively strong, which will help the US dollar strengthen and may drag down gold prices.


Key data focus:


    Wednesday(Beijing Time3month1day)before dawn4:00Chairman of the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia, USA2017yearFOMCVote Committee Hack(Patrick Harker)We will also deliver a speech on economic issues,4:30Williams, Chairman of the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, United States(John Williams)They will also make speeches, and if these officials make more hawkish speeches than they have already done, it is expected to further boost market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve3The expectation of taking action on a monthly basis will help the US dollar strengthen and put pressure on gold prices. In addition to economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials, Trump will be available in Beijing time3month1day10:00The speech in Congress remains a key focus of market attention, as the market looks forward to obtaining more details on its fiscal policy, especially in areas such as tax reform and infrastructure.


Technical analysis of gold:


    Gold, breaking through the upper band position of the Bollinger Bands despite poor overnight data performance, has since fallen back due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, but it is still consolidating1250Above the US dollar. From the daily chart, it can be seen that the next day, gold collects a small overcast star, and the Bollinger Belt runs in a contracted pattern with a short period of timeMA5、10Continuously crossing the golden cross up to the Bollinger track1236A support is formed at the front line position, while the upper part is supported by the Bollinger Belt track1260US dollar suppression on the front line, attached imageMACDIndicator on0The trading volume below the axis crosses, and the indicator shows a weak trend;


From the four hour line, it can be seen that gold has risen and fallen above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, with signs of contraction in the Bollinger Bands,MA5/MA10Moving average at1256The dead cross near the US dollar suppresses its upward trend; Attached diagramMACDIndicator on0Dead cross operation above the axis, with a neutral green energy output indicator; In summary, as risk aversion gradually weakens and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March suppresses gold prices, it is expected that there is a risk of further decline in gold prices. Meanwhile, investors are also paying attention to President Trump's speech in Congress tomorrow, which is expected to announce tax reform policies.

　　
    Evening reference strategy for gold operations:


　　1The rebound of gold1260-1262Short can be made near the US dollar, stop loss4Point, look at the target1250-1248USD;


　　2Gold touches1248Buy long near the US dollar, stop loss4Point, look at the target1255-58Around the US dollar.


　　AugoldTDTransaction made on279.48element/Ke, follow below in the evening279Support, attention from above280Resistance, first look at high-altitude operations, then buy on dips and be bullish after the downward support stabilizes;

GoldTDOperation suggestions refer to:


    Gold price touched280element/Buy down near K, stop loss view280.50Yuan, look at the target279Yuan;


　　AgsilverTDTransaction made on4219element/Kilograms, follow below in the evening4200Support, attention from above4250Resistance, operate at a high altitude first, stabilize with downward support, and then buy on dips and be bullish;


SilverTDOperational strategy reference:


    Silver price touched4250element/Buy and drop near K, set stop loss4280Yuan, target4200Yuan;