EFS-Trump's Congress debut Gold heart trembles with fear

The market fundamentals news was relatively light on Monday, but due to high expectations from investors for Trump's "major statement" in Congress on Tuesday, the market was quite optimistic about the details of Trump's tax cuts and infrastructure expansion plans, which led to S&P500The index continues to reach new highs, whilegoldPressure correction.
Eurozone announced during yesterday's European period2The monthly economic prosperity index is108Slightly lower than expected108.1，2The final value of the monthly consumer confidence index is-6.2Consistent with expectations and previous values, while the United States announced in the evening1Initial monthly rate of durable goods orders and2The Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index performed well on a monthly basis, thusUSD IndexStep back100.65Nearby gains support to recover most of the decline, and if Trump's speech today meets market expectations, the US index is likely to break through101.50The resistance level in the vicinity was mainly dominated by narrow range consolidation prior to this.

In terms of gold, the world's largest goldETF-SPDROur gold holdings are841.17Tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, but due to investors being optimistic about Trump's tax reduction plan,USD IndexStabilizing and rebounding, gold rises and falls back to1250Nearby, the overall trend in the future is still dominated by fluctuations.

　　crude oilaspect,OPECThe reduction in production stimulates the rise of crude oil, while shale oil production in the United States recovers and US crude oil inventories hit a historic high. Oil prices have risen and fallen, and recent bullish and bearish news continues to hedge. The consolidation trend of crude oil ranges will continue.

Today we need to focus on the eurozone2monthCPIPerformance of data and the fourth quarter of the evening in the United StatesGDPAndPCEThe correction value of the annual rate of the price index, of course, the focus of the market is on Trump's policy speech in the capital during Congress. As he has already announced more policy details, the market also has high expectations for this. However, as the saying goes, the greater the expectation, the greater the disappointment. If Trump's performance does not go as planned,MeizhiThe risk of a significant pullback will be significant, so investors need to be cautious before that.

Specific technical aspects:

Crude oil daily chart

From the above daily chart, we can clearly see that the consolidation trend of crude oil ranges is more obvious, with strong resistance levels above55Nearby, the support interval is within5Daily moving average and20The probability of breaking the deadlock of narrow range crude oil fluctuations between daily moving averages in the short term is relatively low, and currently it is still mainly a wait-and-see approach.

Golden Daily Chart

Gold rose and fell yesterday due to the Scottish independence referendum and political turmoil in the Eurozone5There is some support near the daily moving average, and the upward trend of gold has not changed. For aggressive investors, they can take light positions1250Long nearby, stop loss1245Stop surplus1265。

S&P500Index daily chart

Due to investors having high expectations for Trump's tax reduction plan, S&P500The index continues to hit new highs, and specific details will be announced today. The stock market volatility will intensify, and due to significant uncertainty, it is currently mainly a wait-and-see approach.

　　HKG33Index daily chart

The recent high consolidation of Hong Kong stocks has not effectively broken through the resistance level above, and fell below yesterday10Supported by the daily moving average, there is a high risk of short-term pullback, and light positions can be24050Short nearby, stop loss24130Stop surplus23700。

EFS  Analyst: Deng Pan