Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD2month28Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

　　Deng Fute:
AUD/The mid-term surge of the US dollar has reached4The upper edge of the adjustment range since the beginning of the month0.7740Encountering obstacles and falling back, the mid-term turbulence continues. From the hourly chart trend, the Australian dollar/The short-term upward trend of the US dollar has hit a new high and encountered resistance, but it has turned downwards. After a continuous decline, the Australian dollar has been hovering around a falling low point since yesterday0.7660Slow adjustment, short-term adjustment range within0.7660-0.7710Between now, the Australian dollar will further decline after a short-term adjustment0.7650. Short line support0.7650Resistance0.7720。
　AustraliaGCG：
The current volatility of the Australian dollar is as small as usual. Overall, the exchange rate is also around0.77The price at the checkpoint fluctuates up and down, with a pressure range above it0.7730-0.78The interval position also suppresses the exchange rate, while the lower position0.7650The nearby area also provides support for the exchange rate, fromH4From a level perspective, the exchange rate is still in a pattern of more volatility, so the Australian dollar still chooses to remain in the0.7650-0.7660Buy within the range, but currently the quality of direct trading of AUD is not as good as that of AUD cross trading.
　　TeleTrade：
AUD/The rebound of the US dollar was hindered and turned into a slight decline, earliercrude oilThe rise in prices of commodities such as iron ore and iron ore once boosted the Australian dollar to a daily high0.7707;But as the US dollar rebounded in the late trading session, the Australian dollar/After wiping out all earlier gains, the US dollar turned into a volatile downward trend and ultimately0.7670Nearby, there was a slight decline. It is worth noting that last weekCFTCThe long position in the Australian dollar has once again increased significantly, approaching the previous high, and the risk of long liquidation is gradually increasing;In addition, the recent weakening of the momentum of commodity prices has hindered the recent rise of the Australian dollar. Both Australia and China lack data today, but the United States will announce the actual results for the fourth quarter one after anotherGDPAnnual quarterly rate correction value, fourth quarter personal consumption expenditure annual quarterly rate correction value1Monthly commodity trade account and2The monthly consultation chamber's consumer confidence index and other data results are expected to trigger the Australian dollar/Fluctuations in the US dollar. However, the focus of the market remains on President Trump's later speech in Congress.
Key resistance:0.7680/0.7700/0.7720
Key support:0.7650/0.7620/0.7580
Technically speaking, after the rebound of the exchange rate was hindered, it turned into a volatile decline, with two consecutive declines recorded on the daily chart. At present, the opening of the Poly Plus channel on the daily chart has significantly narrowed,4The hourly chart shows that the exchange rate is affected byMA(10)0.7680The suppression of the market may lead to a further decline in the future0.7650and0.7620On the contrary, only by breaking through the above resistance can we further rebound to yesterday's high0.77and0.7720
　　FX168：
AUD/The US dollar remains unchanged against the technological outlook, falling into a trap2The monthly range is relatively high-end, but the upward trend has not been maintained0.7700Above the gate.4The technical indicators on the hourly chart continue to support the downward trend as the currency pair approaches20Encountering suppression of selling interest while looking at the average line, andRSIThe indicator has turned lower, currently located at45Nearby, the kinetic energy index is accelerating its decline in the negative area, currently located at2Weekly low. Nevertheless, the currency needs to fall below0.7600Only then can we confirm that the exchange rate will continue to decline in the coming days0.7450。
Support position:0.7640 0.7600 0.7555
Resistance level:0.7710 0.7740 0.7770
　　NBA：
The trend of the Australian dollar continues to contradict expectations, with the expectation that it will continue to approach the low point from its high point0.70Nearby. At the same time, the US dollar is struggling to recover its position1The loss of land in the month has resulted in a higher global economy, commodity prices, and risk appetite than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year. To some extent, this momentum will continue for a period of time, during which commodity currencies will remain stable.
Overall revision of expectations for the next few quarters of the US dollar, Australian dollar/USD1Quarterly end target direction0.77(Previously0.73);Section2The quarterly target is0.75(Previously0.72);Section3The quarterly target is0.73(Previously0.70), still maintained2017The year-end goal is0.70Unchanged, continue to anticipate2018The year will be lower than the above level. That is to say, as the US dollar reignites its rise, commodity prices are expected to weaken and risk appetite sentiment will decrease.
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7650 0.7610 resistance 0.7760 0.7830
From a recent perspective, the trend of the Australian dollar has been relatively stable and has been consistently0.76-0.7760Running within the range, the bottom shows a gradually rising trend, but it can be seen that there is greater pressure above and it has been delayed in breaking through.The strengthening of the US dollar yesterday did not have a significant impact on the Australian dollar, which is still in the0.7650Running above the short-term support level, positive market sentiment and investors' pursuit of risky assets continue to provide support. However, after recent fluctuations, the risk of the Australian dollar's decline has gradually increased, especially if it cannot break through the upper limit for a long time0.7760In this case, investors need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback in the Australian dollar. If the Australian dollar falls below short-term support levels0.7650The lower goal is to0.7600The integer threshold of,;The first position above is0.7760The important resistance, if broken further above, is last year's high point0.7830Location of.

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

20:45Last week in the United StatesICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales(Compared to last week)(to0225)-1.1%Waiting

Last week in the United StatesICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales(the annual rate)(to0225)+0.6%Waiting

21:30Revised Consumer Price Index for the Fourth Quarter of the United States(Annualized quarterly rate)2.2%Waiting

21:30Revised core personal consumption expenditure price index for the fourth quarter in the United States(Annualized quarterly rate)1.3%Waiting

21:30US Q4 ActualGDPCorrection value(Annualized quarterly rate)1.9%2.1%Waiting

21:30U.S.A1Monthly wholesale inventory(Monthly rate)1.0%0.4%Waiting

U.S.A1Monthly wholesale sales(Monthly rate)+2.6%Waiting

US Q4GDPCorrection value of deflator index2.1%2.1%Waiting

US Q4 annualized actualGDP(Billion US dollars)167125Waiting

21:55Last week's Red Book commercial retail sales in the United States(the annual rate)(to0225)+1.1%Waiting

Last week's Red Book commercial retail sales in the United States(Monthly rate)(to0225)+0.5%Waiting

22:00U.S.A12monthS&amp/CS10Housing price index in major cities(the annual rate)4.5%Waiting

U.S.A12monthS&amp/CS10Unregulated housing price index in major cities(Monthly rate)0.2%Waiting

U.S.A12monthS&amp/CS20Housing price index in major cities(the annual rate)5.27%5.30%Waiting

U.S.A12monthS&amp/CS20Unregulated housing price index in major cities(Monthly rate)0.9%0.7%Waiting

22:45U.S.A2Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index50.353Waiting

23:00U.S.A2Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index111.8111Waiting

23:00U.S.A2Monthly Consultation Chamber Consumer Status Index129.7Waiting

U.S.A2Monthly Consultation Chamber Consumer Expectation Index99.8Waiting

23:00U.S.A2Monthly Richmond Fed Service Industry Income Index15Waiting

U.S.A2Monthly Richmond Fed Retail Revenue Index40Waiting

U.S.A2Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index1210Waiting

U.S.A2Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipment Index13Waiting

Focus:Vantage FXWanzhi: Market Focus on Trump's Speech, Expected to Intensify Volatility This Week（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/17022801/）
　　

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