Elections in multiple European countries are still pending

Huitong Network2month27Daily News - Monday(2month27day)The USD/JPY continued its previous downward trend after opening and briefly fell below112An integer level, breaking the low of over two weeks to111.92Afterwards, it rebounded slightly to112.20Frontline trading.

The US trade protectionism policy and the risk aversion sparked by geopolitical concerns in the market are the main factors leading to the sustained decline of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

Elections in multiple European countries are still undecided, and Scotland has sparked the voice of a new round of independence referendum. Previously, The Times reported that British Prime Minister Theresa May's team was preparing for a new independence referendum in Scotland. Huitong Network believes that, combined with the uncertainty of Brexit progress in the UK, political risks in multiple countries are constantly increasing, and the recovery of risk aversion is expected to become the driving force for a new round of yen appreciation.

This week, investors need to focus on Tuesday(2month28day)US President Trump's speech in Congress seeks more details on regional trade issues.

JPMorgan Chase had previously stated that US trade protectionism policies would lead to a reduction in Japan's trade surplus, but the first thing that would happen would be a sustained decline in the US dollar against the Japanese yen exchange rate.

In addition, attention should also be paid to the United States, which will be announced later in the day1The initial monthly rate of durable goods orders is expected to be based on this data, which is currently expected by the market-0.5%Bounce to1.6%。 According to analysts from Western Pacific, the decline in durable goods orders last month was mainly due to the sharp decline in demand for defense aircraft, excluding the initial month on month value of durable goods orders for transportation0.5%The defense sector is often a volatile factor. If the data performs well as expected, then the US dollar may have an opportunity for a short-term rebound.

Technically speaking, the short-term technical indicators of the US dollar against the Japanese yen are bearish, with a focus on the support level below2Monthly low point111.60The resistance level above is112.60，112.80and113.80Near.FXStreetChief AnalystValeria Bednarikexpress,4In the hourly chart, the exchange rate is below multiple moving averages, and the kinetic energy indicator is biased towards empty,RSIThe indicator is also at the neutral line50Running below indicates that the exchange rate may further decline.
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