Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD2month23Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Deng Fute:
AUD/Last year, the US dollar4The upward trend of the mid-term adjustment range since the beginning of the month has encountered resistance and has limited the direct expansion of the mid-term upward trend. From the hourly chart trend, the Australian dollar/The US dollar has repeatedly crossed the moving average system, with an objective sideways trend. The horizontal range of the Australian dollar in the short term is0.7650-0.7730Between now, it is expected that the short-term sideways trend will continue.
　Industrial Investment:
The Australian dollar fluctuated violently overnight, exploring all the way0.7710On the front line, but quickly recouped the day's gains. However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting suppressed the US dollar and pushed the exchange rate to a new high0.7713However, it quickly declined again and accelerated its decline in the early morning session of the Asian market today, returning to its original state0.7660First line. The optimistic words of the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday provided some support for the Australian dollar, but there was a lack of further impetus for the Australian dollar to rise before strong resistance.
Daily chart display of rising and falling0.77There is strong resistance above, but below20The daily moving average support is still expected to continue to rise.4The hourly chart rose and fell, but the intensity was limited, maintaining an upward trend. The hourly chart fluctuates sharply, with intense competition between long and short positions. Suggestions for the day0.7660Going long on the front line, 0.7710Seeking backhand short selling opportunities on the front line.
Support position:0.7660 0.7645 0.7605
Resistance level:0.7700 0.7720 0.7735
　AustraliaGCG：
The overall trend of the Australian dollar is still consolidating at a high level. Yesterday, due to the influence of the US dollar, the Australian dollar began to rise at the end of the Americas session and touched here0.77Above, the Australian dollar began a significant decline in early trading today due to the influence of Australian data. From the market perspective, the overall trend of consolidation of the Australian dollar is still relatively bullish,H4The support and resistance levels up and down are also more obvious, and the consolidation trend can be treated as consolidation,0.77Empty orders above and below0.7640Multiple nearby orders can enter the venue.
　　HugeHaojue Group:
Australia and the United States rose yesterday0.31%, highest point in the day0.7714But it fell sharply this morning and has already fallen below yesterday's lowest point,KThe line shape is yin wrapped in yang, and the daily line levelMACDThe indicators are starting to diverge downwards, and short-term testing will be conducted2/21Low point0.7645Short term sentiment towards Australia and the United States0.7500Nearby, visible in the short term0.7640Nearby, multiple operations are prohibited.
　　FX168：
AUD/USD exchange rate0.7700A few points above the checkpoint, showing a slightly bullish tone in the short term, due to4On the hourly chart, technical indicators rebounded from the central axis and then turned upward, while the exchange rate rose from20A mild rebound at the bullish moving average0.7670Dynamic support appears nearby. At the current node, the currency pair needs to rise above this month's high point0.7731And the broad weakening of the US dollar is necessary to continue the upward trend0.7815。
Support position:0.7670 0.7630 0.7600
Resistance level:0.7735 0.7770 0.7815
Dahua Bank:
AUD/USD: bullish, if closing below0.7710Neutral.As mentioned last day, unless the Australian dollar can remain at0.7710Above the horizontal level, otherwise further increase to0.7775/80The possibility continues to decrease. The Australian dollar briefly touched the US market0.7714The upward trend clearly lacks momentum. Currently, unless the Australian dollar closes in the US market0.7710Above, otherwise it will turn to a neutral position.
ANZ Bank:
The significant decline in the Australian dollar earlier appears to be more about tail risk than core expectations. The increase in commodity prices exceeds expectations, market independence remains abundant, and volatility is expected to remain controllable, all of which are bullish for the Australian dollar. The valuation of the Australian dollar has also been revised, and now there are unfavorable pricing factors. Even with tail risk, the current level of the Australian dollar is more defensive than other cyclical currencies.
Therefore, the Australian fundamentals will further stabilize, and there is still a risk of a premium for the Australian dollar. And the rise of the US dollar may exceed the performance of monetary policy, which makes the Australian dollar/The US dollar has some further downside risks. It is expected that the Australian dollar will maintain its current range for a longer period of time, while raising expectations for the Australian dollar. We suggest investors buy the Australian dollar on dips instead of selling short on highs.
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7650 0.7610 resistance 0.7760 0.7830
The Australian dollar continues its slightly volatile trend, and currently it is still experiencing a collision between the upward trend and the top resistance level. After recent fluctuations, the risk of the Australian dollar's downward trend is gradually increasing, especially if it is unable to break through the upper limit for a long time0.7760In this case, investors need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback in the Australian dollar.For the short term, the Australian dollar remains strong0.7650-0.7760Operating within the new oscillation zone, if we break below the oscillation support level as expected, the target below will be0.7600The integer threshold,;The first position above is0.7760The important resistance, if broken further above, is last year's high point0.7830Location of.

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

05:30Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in refined oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to0217)150.2-107.5-423

05:30Last week in the United StatesAPIKuhin regioncrude oilInventory changes(10000 barrels)(to0217)-127-173

Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in gasoline inventory(10000 barrels)(to0217)71.7-162.5-89.3

Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in crude oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to0217)994332.5-88.4

21:30U.S.A1Monthly Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index0.14Waiting

21:30Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0218)23.924.1Waiting

21:30Four week average of initial jobless claims in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0218)24.5Waiting

Last week's quarterly survey in the United States followed up on the number of claims for unemployment benefits(to0211)207.6206.5Waiting

22:00U.S.A12monthFHFAHouse Price Index(the annual rate)6.1%Waiting

U.S.A12monthFHFAHouse Price Index(Monthly rate)0.5%0.4%Waiting

22:45Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index for the Week in the United States(to0219)48.1Waiting

23:30Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in natural gas inventory(Billion cubic feet)(to0217)-1140Waiting

Focus:Vantage FXWanzhi: The Federal Reserve's minutes repeat the same old tune, mentioning the risk of a stronger US dollar and lowering the exchange rate（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/17022301/）
　　

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