Wang Shuqi: Federal Reserve minutes fall short of expectations, US dollar obstructed goldT+DOvernight slight rebound

Wang Shuqi: Federal Reserve minutes fall short of expectations, US dollar obstructed goldT+DOvernight slight rebound

　　
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released in the early hours of the morning showed that many attending members expressed the view that if the employment market and inflation data released later meet or are stronger than current expectations, it may be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again soon.
　　
The meeting minutes also showed that the lack of details in the Trump administration's new economic plan and the degree of uncertainty it brings to the Federal Reserve are one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged. At future meetings, the Federal Reserve will begin discussing the reduction of its balance sheet;FOMCWill be on3Release charts on uncertainty expectations in the monthly meeting minutes.
　　
In the long run, although European politics still provide safe haven support, the overall market is still optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike process, and the US dollar remains relatively strong, which may limit the upward space of gold prices.
　　
Allianz Chief Economic Advisor and Bloomberg columnistMohamed El-ErianOn Twitter, it was said that considering the meeting minutes and recent data performance, the market is concerned about3The implied probability of a monthly interest rate hike seems too low.2The monthly employment report, especially the salary increase, will have an impact on the Federal Reserve's3The consideration of monthly interest rate hikes has a significant impact.
　　
Goldman Sachs stated in a statement that our economists expect to raise interest rates three times this year, with an expected6The possibility of monthly interest rate hikes is80%We also expect a slight increase in US real interest rates over the longer term, putting downward pressure on gold prices.
　　
It is worth mentioning that investors also need to pay attention to changes in the European election situation, especially in France. Recently, French far right presidential candidate Le Pen's approval rating slightly declined due to the arrest of his assistant, and investors need to pay attention to changes in safe haven sentiment.
　                  　
Thursday(2month23day)goldT+DCompared to the previous night, there was a slight rebound, and currently trading is in275.95element/Near K, due to the hawkish nature of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes released in the early hours of the morning not meeting market expectations, the US dollar has fallen from a week high, and the market is still in a wait-and-see situation. The overall gold price remains volatile, and investors need to pay attention to several important US data next week and speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen and other officials.
　　
International spot gold Thursday(2month23day)In the early trading session of Asia, the market remained basically unchanged1237dollar/Around ounces. Wednesday(2month22day)Due to the Federal Reserve1The monthly meeting minutes suggest that there is uncertainty in President Trump's new economic policy,3The probability of monthly interest rate hikes subsequently decreased and suppressed the decline of the US dollar against a basket of currencies. Gold prices rebounded from the daily low after the minutes were released and returned to the market once again1240dollar/Below the ounce, the overall trend is high consolidation. On Thursday, investors still need to pay attention to the performance of economic data such as initial unemployment claims in the United States.
　　
Technically speaking, at the daily level, the overnight gold price has once again bottomed out and rebounded, but overall it is still in the1210-1245Within the range of the US dollar. In terms of indicators,MACDGreen kinetic energy columns are emerging, with double-line horizontal bonding,KDJThe indicator fluctuates at a high level. Breaking through200Daily moving average1261Before the US dollar, medium-term risk remained neutral.4HFrom a level perspective, short-term gold prices are expected to remain high1210-1245The US dollar fluctuates, and if it breaks, it is expected to further rise.
　　
At present, the initial resistance to gold prices is located in1245USD, further resistance in1250、1270as well as1300US dollars. In terms of downward trend, initial support is in1226as well as1216/07The US dollar, further supported by1200/1198、1180、1172、1158、1147、1125、1100as well as1073USD.
　　
In terms of operational strategy, it was still suggested on Wednesday to take advantage of the downward trend in gold prices1232-1229The opportunity for the US dollar to fall is cautious, with light positions buying long on dips and stop losses set1226Below the US dollar, look at the target1237-1240US dollars. From the performance on that day, the strategy was effective. 【2month22Daily Gold Investment Morning Report
　　
On Thursday, it is suggested to use the gold price to1231-1228The opportunity for the US dollar to fall is cautious, with light positions buying long on dips and stop losses set1226US dollars, look at the target1235-1238USD.
　　
GoldT+DOn Thursday, it is also recommended to adopt a cautious and light position long strategy.
　　
Author: Wang Shuqi WeChat:wsq144