兴业投资：鹰派FED矛头直指强美元 法国选情向好欧元逆袭

兴业投资：鹰派FED矛头直指强美元 法国选情向好欧元逆袭

2017year2month23day

euro/dollar

欧元自隔夜亚市午盘跌破此前低位整理区间1.0520一线后加速下行，最低下探1.0493，随后企稳在纽约午盘快速拉升，最高上探1.0572，日图收录螺旋桨，发出企稳回升信号。一度令市场不安的法国大选出现新转机，促使欧元自低位强势反弹：法国中间派政客贝鲁表示，他将不会在今年参选法国总统，并表示支持独立候选人马克龙，而稍早，继法国共和党总统候选人菲永被曝出“空饷门”丑闻后，极右翼政党总统候选人勒庞也因涉嫌虚设欧洲议员助理职位而陷入风波。凌晨美联储会议纪要鹰派十足，强调相对快的加息是合适的，但认为通胀压力大幅上升的风险不大，同时将矛头直指美元，称美元走强带来下行风险。美元在会议纪要后仅短暂走高就转为大幅下行，且市场对美联储3月加息的预期再度降温，可能不利于美元后期走势。今日缺乏重磅消息，美元可能延续弱势。

日图收录螺旋桨且收于1.0520上方，短线可能有反弹需求，4小时图先抑后扬，短线阻力位于1.0575，小时图自低位强势拉升，短线仍偏强。日内建议1.0520Top long, top break1.0575follow-up.

Support position:1.0520 1.0470 1.0440

Resistance level:1.0590 1.0635 1.0660

pound/dollar

英镑继续在区间震荡，早盘自1.2500一线震荡走低，最低下探1.2422，随后维持在该当上方来回拉锯。英国四季度GDP季修正值季率增长0.7%Beyond expectations0.6%，但年率增长2%Less than expected2.2%。英镑在数据后扩大跌幅，但依旧未能摆脱近期的区间，甚至美联储会议纪要后走势仍然特立独行。汇价仍在等待英国政府有关退欧进展的更多消息，在此之前，维持高抛低吸操作。

日图短线震荡方向不明，维持在1.2370-1.2500Interval oscillation.4小时图方向不明，上下均缺乏动能。小时图破败1.2500但下行动能不强。日内建议1.2400-1.2500Interval operation.

Support position:1.2430 1.2380 1.2345

Resistance level:1.2480 1.2530 1.2565

dollar/Japanese yen

汇价隔夜呈N型走势，最低下探112.89, highest touch113.66。美联储会议纪要前，风险情绪明显主导汇价走势。法国“女版特朗普”勒庞涉嫌“空饷门”，而中间派政客贝鲁退出大选并与独立候选人马克龙联盟，让市场对勒庞赢得大选的担忧缓和。不过，美联储会议纪要打击强势美元，且美联储尽管直言要尽早加息，却没有明确暗示3月加息，重创美元。

日图在中期支持100日均线收录带下影线阴烛，随机指标倾向走高，但短线113.80-114阻力重重。4小时图横盘整理，上下均缺乏动能，小时图多空拉锯，短线缺乏方向。日内建议113一线做多，看113.70附近表现决定进一步方向。

Support position:112.90 112.50 112.10

Resistance level:113.70 114.20 114.60

AUD/dollar

澳元隔夜剧烈震荡，一路上探0.7710On the front line, but quickly recouped the day's gains. However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting suppressed the US dollar and pushed the exchange rate to a new high0.7713However, it quickly declined again and accelerated its decline in the early morning session of the Asian market today, returning to its original state0.7660First line. The optimistic words of the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday provided some support for the Australian dollar, but there was a lack of further impetus for the Australian dollar to rise before strong resistance.

日图冲高回落显示0.77There is strong resistance above, but below20The daily moving average support is still expected to continue to rise.4The hourly chart rose and fell, but the intensity was limited, maintaining an upward trend. The hourly chart fluctuates sharply, with intense competition between long and short positions. Suggestions for the day0.7660Going long on the front line, 0.7710Seeking backhand short selling opportunities on the front line.

Support position:0.7660 0.7645 0.7605

Resistance level:0.7700 0.7720 0.7735