Crossing the Sea 2016year12month2day

Crossing the Sea 2016year12month2day

Focus this week:
12month2day(Friday)
U.S.A11Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A11monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index

12month5day(Monday)
U.S.A11monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A11Monthly employment trend index
U.S.A11monthISMNon manufacturing index

12month6day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly International Trade Balance
美国第三季单位劳工成本修订
美国第三季非农业生产率
U.S.A10Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A10月扣除运输的工厂订单月率
U.S.A10Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision

12month7day(Wednesday)
U.S.A10monthJOLTS职位空缺数

12month8day(Thursday)
U.S.A10Monthly Consumer Credit
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

12month9day(Friday)
U.S.A12月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值
U.S.A10Monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A10Monthly retail sales rate



Important economic data released today:
17：30 britain11monthMarkit/CIPS建筑业采购经理人指数(PMI)‧forecast52.2‧Previous value52.6
18：00 eurozone10Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%
18：00 eurozone10Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast-1.0%‧Previous value-1.5%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly non-agricultural employment positions‧Forecast increase17.5ten thousand people‧Previous value increase16.1ten thousand people
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly private employment positions‧Forecast increase16.5ten thousand people‧Previous value increase14.2ten thousand people
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly manufacturing employment positions‧Forecast increase0.3ten thousand people‧Previous value decrease0.9ten thousand people
21：30 U.S.A11月政府部门就业岗位‧Previous value increase1.9ten thousand people
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast4.9%‧Previous value4.9%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly average hourly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.4%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly and weekly average working hours‧forecast34.4‧Previous value34.4
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly labor force employment participation rate‧Previous value62.8%
21：30 Canada11Monthly job changes‧Predicted decrease2.00Ten thousand‧Previous value increase4.39Ten thousand
21：30 Canada11Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast+7.0%‧Previous value7.0%
21：30 Canada11Monthly employment participation rate‧Previous value65.8%
21：30 加拿大第三季劳动生产率季率‧forecast+1.0%‧Previous value-0.3%
22：45 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)-New York Corporate Activity Index‧Previous value719.3



News of the Week

U.S.A11month ADP民间就业岗位增加21.6Ten thousand
U.S.A10Monthly personal income increased compared to the previous month0.6%，个人支出较前月增长0.3%
U.S.A10月成屋待完成销售环比几乎持平
11Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)升至去年1The highest in the past month57.6
China11Monthly official manufacturingPMIby51.77, for2014year7The highest since the beginning of the month
China11月非制造业商务活动指数为54.7%，创逾两年最高--National Bureau of Statistics
中国财新11Monthly manufacturing industryPMIlower50.9，为两年多来的次高
U.S.A10月建筑支出较前月上升0.5%至七个月高位
U.S.A 11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value increases54.1

达拉斯FED总裁支持升息，认同特朗普经济政策



12month1day
LondongoldMorning order price:1168.75
London gold afternoon fixing price:1161.85



Today's Introduction

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)本周达成2008年以来首份减产协议后油价大涨，提升了通胀预期和美国公债收益率，进而支撑了美元，但在周五非农就业报告公布前，投资者仍持谨慎立场，再加上美元大涨之后的获利了结压力，打压美元稍告回落。特朗普效应在11月引领美元涨势，美元指数上周一度触及13年半高点102.05。而近期美国公布数据也大多向好，市场因而愈发认为美联储本月稍晚几乎笃定升息，明年还将再有两度升息。联储官员已经表示，逐步升息计划或需加快，以适应新政府可能推升通胀的经济计划。而随着特朗普团队承诺迅速填补联储职位空缺，并推出可能改写决策者核心经济假设的税收和财政计划，联储或很快发生变化。美国财长被提名人努钦(Steven Mnuchin)AcceptingFox Business专访时指出，新政府的计划可能迅速改变耶伦试图打造的以合议及共识为导向的决策模式。

周末意大利将举行修宪公投，以及奥地利举行总统大选，在接连经历英国公投脱欧和特朗普赢得大选两大黑天鹅事件后，投资者担心欧元即将面临新一波的政治风险。在民粹风越刮越猛之际，这些政治事件令投资者绷紧神经严阵以待。进入下周，澳洲央行、加拿大央行、和欧洲央行会议亦将值得关注，此外还有多位央行官员讲话，可望一窥其利率政策立场以及对经济的看法。经济数据方面，有多项PMI、CPI、贸易收支和GDP数据将公布。



XAU London Gold - 金价超卖反弹，料受制千二关口

由于美国就业数据公布之前美元走软，金价周五从2月初以来最低位反弹，但仍可能录得连续第四个周线跌幅。周四金价曾跌至2month5The lowest in recent days1160.38美元。投资者涌向股市、而非金市，这可以从黄金上市交易基金(ETF)的卖盘明显看出。The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust 黄金持仓量周四下降1.54%to870.22吨。上月黄金持仓量下降超过6%。

技术图表所见，向上阻力料为1187美元，下一级关键仍在1200美元关口，较大阻力在1214and1234美元。反之，倘若金价仍是受制于1200美元关口，则金价仍会继续探低趋势。支持预估在1169and1153美元，较大支撑见预料于1136and1120USD.

London Gold12month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1169 – 1187
Resistance level:1203 – 1214 – 1234
Support bit:1153 – 1136 – 1120

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month7Day - 949.69ton
11month8Day - 949.69ton
11month9Day - 955.03ton
11month10Day - 941.68ton
11month11Day - 934.56ton
11month14Day - 928.93ton
11month15Day - 927.45ton
11month16Day - 926.26ton
11month17Day - 920.63ton
11month18Day - 915.29ton
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton
11month23Day - 891.57ton
11month24Day - 891.57ton
11month25Day - 885.04ton
11month28Day - 885.04ton
11month29Day - 885.04ton
11month30Day - 883.86ton
12month1Day - 870.22ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
1Monthly goldoptionDue date:12month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year11month2day)

Global:33092.4ton(+114.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton(-0.3ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1838.5ton(+5.0ton)
Russia(7)：1542.7ton(+16.6ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价缓步探低

伦敦白银方面，银价过去两周亦是步步探低，暂见在16美元关口上方持稳，上周三及周五的低位均触及16.14美元。技术走势而言，较近阻力预估在17.00and17.40，关键则会是200Balance moving average17.64美元，在十月份为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考。下方支持预估在16.40and16.00，较大支持预料为15.00The US dollar barrier.

London Silver12month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.40 – 17.00
Resistance level:17.40 – 18.00 – 18.80
Support bit:16.00 – 15.50 – 14.90

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month7Day - 11148.60ton
11month8Day - 11148.60ton
11month9Day - 11178.11ton
11month10Day - 11136.79ton
11month11Day - 11095.48ton
11month14Day - 11080.73ton
11month15Day - 11080.73ton
11month16Day - 11080.73ton
11month17Day - 11080.73ton
11month18Day - 11891.89ton
11month21Day - 11891.89ton
11month22Day - 10796.00ton
11month23Day - 10796.00ton
11month24Day - 10796.00ton
11month25Day - 10766.50ton
11month28Day - 10766.50ton
11month29Day - 10766.50ton
11month30Day - 10766.50ton
12month1Day - 10766.50ton



EUR euro - 处于盘底阶段

法国总统奥朗德表示，他将不寻求连任，放弃2017年总统大选 。这一史无前例的决定，为其它左翼候选人敞开了大门。法国现任总统不寻求连任，为数十年来首见。近期的所有调查均预测，不论是奥朗德还是其它社会党候选人，都不可能通过首轮投票。调查预测，总统大选最后的角逐将在法国前总理、中右翼候选人菲永和法国民族阵线主席勒庞之间展开。受此消息影响，欧元进一步扩大涨势。

意大利公投有可能否决总理伦齐的宪政改革，而他已经赌上了自己的政治前途，恐将重蹈卡梅伦覆辙，成为再次栽在公投上的欧洲国家领导人。这种结果或造成意大利脆弱的银行业系统出现波动，并被视为欧洲反建制情绪高涨的又一个迹象，也许会削弱投资者对欧元区的信心。此外，据路透报导，欧洲央行将把购债计划延长至3月份之后，且考虑下周四政策会议后就最终结束资产购买计划发出正式信号。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已在出现回升，或见欧元兑美元短线下跌动力开始放缓，实际上欧元近日已有所回稳，但能否保持反弹势头成疑。估计只要1.05这个半百关口可守稳，则可望维持涨势。预估较近阻力先参考1.0680and1.0750，上月低位1.0848则为另一依据。反之，若1.05关口失守，延伸下一级支持为去年3Monthly low1.0456，进一步则会看至1.0380Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Eurozone10monthPPI
12month5day(one): Italy11monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France11monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany11monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone11monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone12monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone10Monthly retail sales
12month6day(two): Germany10Monthly industrial order rate‧欧元区第三季GDP修订
12month7day(three): Germany10Monthly industrial output rate
12month8day(four)：欧洲12Monthly central bank refinancing rate‧Deposit interest rate
12month9day(five): Germany10Monthly export rate‧进口月率‧trade balance

Related news
Germany10Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.3%, down from the same period last year0.1%
Germany10月零售销售按月劲升2.4%，创逾五年来最大增幅
Germany10Menstrual season adjustmentILOIncrease in employed population13,000
Germany10月实质零售销售较前月增加2.4%, decreased compared to the same period last year1.0%

欧洲央行总裁德拉吉称，增长停滞是欧洲经济的最大风险
法国现任总统奥朗德宣布不寻求连任

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0680 – 1.0750 – 1.0848
support 1.0500 – 1.0456 – 1.0380



JPY yen - 美元续受追捧，日圆延续弱势

美元兑日圆周五自九个半月高位小幅回落，投资者在美国就业报告出炉之前保持谨慎。该数据料将为未来几天的市场走势奠定基调。美元兑日圆周四一度涨至114.83On11month9日触及接近101水平的低位后，已经录得13.5%的涨幅。

技术图表所见，预料美元兑日圆上方阻力先参考100Monthly average line114.90水平，下一级看至25Monthly average line115.30and116。支持位方面，110关口将反过来成为支撑依据，较近支撑见于110.80Horizontal.

Focus:
12month5day(one): Japan11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
12month6day(two): Japan10Monthly overtime pay
12month7day(three): Japan12Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index‧Japan11monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan10Monthly simultaneous indicators‧Leading indicators
12month8day(four): Japan10Monthly current account‧日本第三季GDPRevised month on month annual rate‧GDP季订修订‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index
12month9day(five)：日本第四季大型制造业景气判断指数

Related news
央行审议委员樱井真称，疲弱日圆可推升通胀

日本第三季企业资本支出同比下降1.3%, for2013年以来首见下滑
Japan11Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe final value is51.3

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.90 – 115.30 – 116.00
support 110.80 – 110.00



GBP pound - 技术超买

英国脱欧事务大臣戴维斯周四表示，在脱欧之后，为了保有最大程度的欧盟市场准入，英国将考虑为此向欧盟支付款项。在明年开始正式的脱欧协商之前，政府正在确定其协商的立场，而商业界正寻求确保政府不会“硬脱欧”；所谓硬脱欧，是将减少移民放在比继续留在欧盟单一市场更为优先的地位。在戴维斯发表上述言论之后，英镑冲至数月高点，而英镑贸易加权指数料将创下6month23日脱欧公投以来最佳单日表现。

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑经历在本月上旬的反弹走势后，过去一周波动收窄，大致处于1.23to1.25的区间内争持。自上周一跌破1.25水平后，则连日向上亦受制此区域，故1.25仍是较近阻力参考，而50Balance moving average1.2530则为下一级阻力，倘若可冲破此区，进一步攀升目标料为1.27and1.28水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向再陷弱势，向下瞩目于上升趋向线1.2320，较大支持位预估在1.2180and1.2080Horizontal.        

Focus:
Friday: UK11monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
12month5day(one): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI
12month6day(two): UK11monthBRC零售销售年率
12month7day(three): UK11monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧three monthsHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index‧britain10Monthly industrial production‧Manufacturing output
12month8day(four): UK11monthRICSPrice difference
12month9day(five): UK10月建筑业产出‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Related news
Bank of EnglandMPC委员弗利葛称，维持利率不变对英国经济最有利

NATIONWIDE: UK11Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.1%, up from the same period last year4.4%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500/30* – 1.2700 – 1.2800
support 1.2320 – 1.2180 – 1.2080



CHF Swiss franc - 弱势延展

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1.0150and1.02，1month29Daily high1.0257将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Focus:
12month2day(five)Switzerland Season 3GDP
12month6day(two)Switzerland11monthCPI
12month9day(five)Switzerland11Monthly unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0150 – 1.0200 – 1.0257
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - Constrained0.75Gateway

澳元周五持稳，因坚挺的大宗商品价格及澳元兑日圆需求强劲，帮助抵消了来自美元的压力。澳元兑美元持于0.74水平附近。周五的数据显示澳洲10月经季节调整零售销售较前月增长0.5%，好于路透调查预估的增长0.3%。该强劲数据帮助缓解企业投资和建筑数据疲软后，对经济更严重放缓甚至衰退的担忧。澳洲央行将在下周召开今年最后一次议息会议，外界广泛预期该央行将连续第四个月维持指标利率在1.5%不变。铁矿石和煤炭价格上涨，扶助市场人气。澳洲央行周四公布，11月大宗商品价格指数大增10.2%, up from the same period last year24%。不过，随着美国通胀率升高的预期推动美债收益率及美元跳升，澳元走势短期内可能更多受到全球性因素的影响。投资者将密切关注今日稍后的美国就业报告，以及周末的意大利修宪公投。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数开始自超买区域出现回落，同时，连同周三市况，澳元兑美元已连续三日受制于0.75关口，若短线依然没可出现突破，估计澳元又将面临走低风险。较近阻力预料为100Balance moving average0.7580水平，下一级看至0.7740。支持位则会回看250Balance moving average0.7430and0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145。

Related news
澳洲第三季新资本支出经季节调整后较前季下滑4.0%
澳洲第三季经季节调整建筑资本支出较前季下滑5.7%
Australia2016/17年度资本支出最新估值为1,069AUD 100 million
Australia10Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustments0.5%

Focus:
12month5day(one): Australia11monthAIGService Industry Index‧ANZ整体招聘广告‧澳洲第三季商业库存‧Previous value+0.3%
12month6day(two)：澳洲第三季流动帐平衡‧Australia12Monthly central bank interest rate decision
12month7day(three): Australia11monthAIG建筑业指数‧Australia Season 3GDP
12month8day(four): Australia10月商品及服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
12month9day(five): Australia10Monthly housing financing‧Investment oriented housing financing

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500** – 0.7580 – 0.7740
support 0.7430 – 0.7290 – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - test250MA

纽元兑美元方面，由上周初至今，纽元在浮沉在0.70区间上，从图表走势所见，纽元兑美元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹势头，如今又回落此水平，料将备受考验，倘若今趟下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着250Balance moving average0.6950，技术上有机会组成双底型态，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数均已呈上升状态，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看0.7150and100Balance moving average0.72水平，下一级关键则料为0.74Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7150 – 0.7200 – 0.7400
support 0.7000 – 0.6950 – 0.6800 – 0.6676



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
Friday: Canada11Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate
12month6day(two): Canada10Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import‧Canada11monthIvey PMI
12month7day(three)Bank of Canada Interest Rate Resolution
12month8day(four): Canada11Monthly housing construction annual rate‧Canada10Monthly building permit rate‧新屋价格指数‧加拿大第三季产能利用率

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Canada9Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)