Crossing the Sea 2016year10month27day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month27day

Focus this week:
10month27day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit Revision
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A9Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Italy9Monthly Salary Index Monthly Rate‧Front value remains unchanged
17：00 Italy9Monthly salary index annual rate‧Previous value+0.6%
18：00 britain10Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Retail sales difference‧Predict negative2‧Negative front value8
19：30 U.S.A9月建筑许可年率修订‧Previous value122.510000 households
19：30 U.S.A9月建筑许可月率修订‧Previous value+6.3%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders‧forecast+1.0%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value-0.2%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense‧Previous value-0.8%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.9%
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(10month22Day and Week)‧forecast25.5ten thousand people‧forecast26.0ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(10month22Day and Week)‧forecast25.175ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(10month15Day and Week)‧forecast206.8ten thousand people‧forecast205.7ten thousand people
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed‧forecast+1.2%‧Previous value-2.4%



News of the Week

U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe initial value is53.2, for2015year10The highest since the beginning of the month
FHFA: USA8Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.7%, up from the same period last year6.4%
U.S.A10The monthly consumer confidence index has decreased98.6
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank10The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is negative4
U.S.A9月新屋销售较前月上升3.1%to59.3万户，接近九年高位
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIThe initial value is54.8, creating2015year11The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A9月商品贸易逆差初值为560.8USD100mn



10month26day
LondongoldMorning order price:1273.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1270.50



Today's Introduction

美国新屋销售增加且贸易逆差收窄，反映第三季GDP增长加速

U.S.A9月新屋销售意外上涨，尽管前三个月的数据被下修，但仍反映出楼市需求动能持续。周三发布的其它报告显示，第三季经济增长加速，增速超过当前的预期。9月的商品贸易逆差大幅收窄，批发和零售库存增加。商务部称， 9月新屋销售较前月上升3.1%，经季节调整后年率为59.3万户，接近7月触及的九年高位。但前三个月的数据被下修，新屋销售总计较初值减少8.5万户。新屋销售数据月度之间波动较大，容易被大幅修正。新屋销售较去年同期增长了29.8%。经济学家原本预计，上月独栋屋销售年率下降至60万户，独栋屋销售占整体房屋销售的9.8%。尽管数据被下修，第三季新屋销售仍较第二季增长。不过，住宅建设可能连续第二季给国内生产总值(GDP)造成一定的拖累。根据路透调查的经济学家，第三季GDP可能增长2.5%，快于第二季1.4%的温和增速。但贸易数据初值显示，9月商品贸易逆差收窄5.2%, to561亿美元，因出口强劲。数据暗示，第三季GDP增幅可能超过预期。另外，9月批发库存增加0.2%，零售库存增加0.3%。政府将于周五发布第三季GDP初值。



XAU London Gold - 节日需求支撑金价

The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust 称，周三黄金持仓量下滑1.49%to942.59吨，周二为956.83吨。以盎司计算，黄金持仓量从30,762,925.73盎司降至30,305,189.24ounce.

印度本月底将庆祝印度教最重要的两个节日，即财神节(Dhanteras)和排灯节(Diwali)，黄金通常在这两个节日期间作为礼物赠送，这可望帮助支撑金价。

技术图表所见，在1250Near the level, a good technical bottom has been temporarily established, and the short-term gold price is expected to develop steadily. Currently, it is relatively close to resistance reference1287and1302USD, next level material is1313。下方支持见于1271and1256USD, further estimated as250Balance moving average1231USD.

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88, amplitude only60Remaining points. And below, there is a more obvious technical support200Balance moving average, currently located at17.34Horizontal. In the current situation of sideways trading, it is believed that once the level is broken, the silver trend will also usher in a unilateral trend. If it falls below the above technical support level, the extended lower trial level will be seen17.30and16.60Horizontal; On the contrary, if there is a definite breakthrough upwards17.90US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise18.20To the extent that18.50The US dollar is facing significant resistance18.80Horizontal.

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton
10month26Day - 11395.28ton



EUR euro - 呈技术反弹，中线维持弱势

欧洲央行消息人士告诉路透，几乎可以肯定，央行会在明年3月初原定到期日后继续购债，并会放宽购买限制，以确保有足够的债券可以购买。央行决策者将根据新的成长和通胀预期，在12月会议上决定量化宽松(QE) 计划未来的结构和期限。消息人士并指出，央行将评估按出资比率购债、单一发行人购买限制和收益率限制等规定。消息人士称，延长购债计划就意味着，央行不得不放宽一些自己设定的购债限制，因为符合购买条件的德国公债越来越少。欧洲央行可能考虑的一项调整是，减少购买符合购买条件的债券开始出现稀缺的国家的债券。另一个可以解决无德债可买的方法是，放松‘最低收益率限制’，即公债收益率不能低于负0.4%的欧洲央行存款利率的限制。

欧元兑美元自月初以来持续走弱，至本周二跌至1.0848，创三月份以来最低水平。然而，周三欧元出现显著反弹，回返至1.09水平，在之前三个交易日均未可明确跌穿1.0850水平，促使了欧元作出技术性修正。鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数亦自超卖区域回升，可望短期欧元尚有进一步反弹空间，首个阻力应先指向1.10关口，至于上至250Balance moving average1.11水平应会面对较严峻阻力。另外，亦要留意，从中期走势而言，欧元兑美元尚处弱势发展。周线图所见，汇价已跌破由年初起始之上升趋向线支撑，而10周平均线跌破25周平均线，亦示意着欧元的下跌趋势，估计中线重要支撑区域将是1.0450to1.05。

Focus:
Thursday: Eurozone9monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧For household loans‧Italy10Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Italy9Monthly salary index

Related news
France10月消费者信心指数由前月97Ascend to98
Germany11monthGFKConsumer confidence index has decreased9.7, for4Monthly low point
Germany9Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.1%, down from the same period last year1.8%

德拉吉称该央行已经意识到超低利率政策的代价上升
消息指欧洲央行几乎可以肯定明年3月后会继续购债，放宽QE规定

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1000 – 1.1100 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.0850 – 1.0500* – 1.0450*



JPY yen - 黑田东彦暗示下次会议不会放宽政策

日本央行总裁黑田东彦周四表示，央行并不打算试图压低超长期政府公债的收益率，即便其收益率进一步上涨，因为央行专注的目标是控制好10年期以内的收益率曲线。黑田东彦在国会表示，他认为目前无需改变负0.1%的短期利率目标以及近零水位的10年期公债收益率目标，暗示日本央行将在下周的利率审议会议上按兵不动，不会进一步放宽政策。超长期公债收益率的过度下滑，将会挤压养老基金和寿险公司等投资者的利润率，这是日本央行在上个月综合评估政策时列出的大规模刺激计划的成本之一。

美元兑日圆周四走高，美国公债收益率上升以及对美国联邦储备理事会(FED)年内升息的预期升温给美元带来支撑。继美联储政策制定者的一系列鹰派言论后，CME GroupofFedWatch工具显示，市场目前预计美联储12The possibility of monthly interest rate hikes is74%。对于美联储2016年升息的押注亦对美国10年期公债收益率构成支撑，使之在亚洲盘中升至1.813%，逼近本月所创的五个月高点1.814%。

As seen in the technical chart5月底起始之下降趋向线，至今形成阻力于104.30，美元兑日圆经过近期的一段整固行情后，若突破此趋向线阻力，则可望开展新一轮上升。由于相对强弱指标及随机指数维持着向上，似乎汇价继续走高之机会较大。较近阻力先看105关口，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.50，留意美元兑日圆7month21日触及的高位在107.47，这更显得此区的重要性。支持位方面，则会以100Balance moving average103水平为较近参考，较大支撑预估在102.20and101.50Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
Friday: Japan9All monthly household expenses‧National CoreCPI‧Nationwide as a wholeCPI‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate

Related news
月报：日本政府九个月来首上调工业产出评估，称经济仍温和复苏

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 104.30 – 105.00 – 107.50
support 103.00 – 102.20 – 101.50



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

图表走势所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，同时，5Tianhe10天平均线正呈黄金交叉，估计若汇价仍然未有进一步破底的情况下，将面临大举反扑的风险。阻力先探上周高位1.2329，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.25and1.2630水平。支持位预估在1.2080and1.20Gateway.

Focus:
Thursday: UK10monthCBIRetail sales difference
Friday: UK10monthGfKConsumer confidence index

Related news
britain10月工业订单差值从9The negative of the month5Reduce to negative17, creating2New low since September

英国央行总裁卡尼称不能无视英镑“相当明显的”下跌

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 – 1.2630
support 1.2080 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
瑞士央行总裁乔丹称必要时可能进一步下调负利率，直升机撒钱非瑞士央行的政策工具

Switzerland9月消费指数从前月的1.53Ascend to1.59

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 第三季通胀率上升，弱化降息可能性

技术图表所见，相对强弱指数及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，示意澳元兑美元短期或见进一步反弹空间较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看25Balance moving average0.7620及近期连日守稳的0.7580水平，上升趋向线0.7520则为较关键支撑。

Related news
Australia Season 3CPIUp from the previous quarter0.7%, up from the same period last year1.3%
Australia Season 3CPI截尾均值较前季上升0.4%
澳洲第三季出口物价较前季上升3.5%，进口物价下滑1.0%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7620 – 0.7580 – 0.7520*



NZD New Zealand dollars - 维持弱势下行

纽西兰统计局周四公布，纽西兰9月录得贸易逆差14.36亿纽元，截至9月的一年贸易逆差为34Billion New Zealand dollars.9月出口共计为34.7亿纽元，进口共计为49.0Billion New Zealand dollars.

技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7190and50Balance moving average0.7250Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand9The monthly trade deficit is14.4Billions of New Zealand dollars
New Zealand as of9月的一年贸易逆差为34Billions of New Zealand dollars

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Related news
央行总裁称，降息将使央行更接近使用非常规工具

Canada8Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500



CLZ 12Monthly oil - 市场对减产计划存疑，油价承压回吐

纽约期油自上周高位51.93美元回落，目前徘徊在50美元附近，因对石油输出国组织(OPEC)组织协调减产能力的疑虑带来拖累，不过，坚挺的需求和围绕委内瑞拉局势的担忧为市场提供支撑。在OPEC成员国委内瑞拉中，反 政府示 . 威的扩散与加剧引发石油行业担心，该国石油生产可能受到影响。美国能源资料协会(EIA)周三公布，上周美国crude oilInventory reduction55.3Ten thousand barrels, market estimate for increase170万桶。美国原油库存在八周内第七周意外减少，和秋季库存通常上升的趋势相反。秋季美国炼厂进入维修季，导致原油库存通常上升。在EIA数据公布后，油价缩减跌幅。不过，油价反弹的势头受到抑制，因对11month30dayOPEC会议达成其减产计划存在疑虑。目前焦点仍然在一个月后举行的OPEC会议，伊朗、利比亚和尼日利亚似乎都不会承诺减产。

As seen in the chart trend, currently25The balance moving average is at49.20，若见油价明确跌破，料将维持回吐走势，下方较大支撑见于47.50and46.50水平。预估上方阻力在50and52USD.



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)