Crossing the Sea 2016year10month26day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month26day

Focus this week:
10month26day(Wednesday)
U.S.A9Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A9Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A10monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A9Monthly sales of new houses

10month27day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit Revision
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft
U.S.A9Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed



Important economic data released today:
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value512.9
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value2,172.5
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index‧Previous value223.1
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate‧Previous value3.73%
20：30 U.S.A9Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance‧Previous value584.0A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30 U.S.A9Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory‧Previous value-0.1%
21：45 U.S.A10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value52.3
21：45 U.S.A10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧forecast52.3‧Previous value52.3
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly New Home Sales Annual Rate‧forecast60.010000 households‧Previous value60.910000 households
22：00 U.S.A9月新屋销售月率‧forecast-1.0%‧Previous value-7.6%



News of the Week

U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe initial value is53.2, for2015year10The highest since the beginning of the month
FHFA: USA8Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.7%, up from the same period last year6.4%
U.S.A10The monthly consumer confidence index has decreased98.6
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank10The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is negative4



10month25day
LondongoldMorning order price:1269.30
London gold afternoon fixing price:1269.40



Today's Introduction

U.S.A8月房价比去年同期上涨5.1%，因上市房屋数量减少，购房者不得不竞价购买，而抵押贷款利率处于低位，薪资有所增长，以及低失业率，也扶助提振房价走高。美国10月大型企业研究会消费者信心指数下跌至98.6，9月该指数为103.5，现状指数和六个月预期指数均走低。

美元周三显著回落，周二曾一度高见至99.12, this is2month1日以来最高。有关美联储年底前升息的预期升温，支撑了美元。据芝加哥商业交易所(CME)集团的FedWatch，市场押注美联储12月升息的机率为78%。市场焦点将在于周五公布的美国第三季成长数据，接下来焦点则会在下周公布的美国就业报告、以及11月初美国总统大选前。



XAU London Gold - 节日需求支撑金价

金价周三持坚，印度10月底节庆旺季前的实货需求增强，抵销了美元走强的影响。印度DhanterasandDiwali等节日之前黄金需求料将升温，Diwali亦是传统上赠送黄金作为礼物的节庆。金价周二曾触及10month5The highest in recent days1276.67USD.The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold Trust 周二的黄金持有量较周一增加0.34%to956.83Tons.

技术图表所见，在1250Near the level, a good technical bottom has been temporarily established, and the short-term gold price is expected to develop steadily. Currently, it is relatively close to resistance reference1287and1302USD, next level material is1313。下方支持见于1271and1256USD, further estimated as250Balance moving average1231USD.

London Gold10month26day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1271 – 1287
Resistance level:1302 – 1313
Support bit:1256 – 1241

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88, amplitude only60Remaining points. And below, there is a more obvious technical support200Balance moving average, currently located at17.34Horizontal. In the current situation of sideways trading, it is believed that once the level is broken, the silver trend will also usher in a unilateral trend. If it falls below the above technical support level, the extended lower trial level will be seen17.30and16.60Horizontal; On the contrary, if there is a definite breakthrough upwards17.90US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise18.20To the extent that18.50The US dollar is facing significant resistance18.80Horizontal.

London Silver10month26day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.60 – 18.20
Resistance level:18.50 – 18.80
Support bit:17.30 – 17.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton



EUR euro - The central bank maintains a loose stance, while the euro continues its weakness         

欧洲央行总裁德拉吉指出，该行已经意识到超宽松的货币政策让金融行业付出越来越大的代价，并不倾向于维持负利率太长时间。德拉吉的言论或进一步降低欧洲央行再度调降存款利率的可能性。德国财政部长朔伊布勒在另一场会议中表示，国际上日益形成一种共识，认为货币政策已经达到了极限。朔伊布勒还表示，他相信国际范围内存在过多的流动性和债务。

In September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range, it has already fallen below the bottom at the beginning of the month, and it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market trends will be launched in the short term. In addition,1.11Also250The position of the balance moving average will be considered as short-term resistance, and larger resistance will be estimated at50Balance moving average1.1180Horizontal. Down to1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the euro has initially fallen below this support on Friday. If the exchange rate continues to remain below this level next week, the weakness of the euro is expected to continue, and a significant decline is expected to be extended1.07To the extent that1.05Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Germany11monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧France10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Italy8Monthly retail sales
Thursday: Eurozone9monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧For household loans‧Italy10Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Italy9Monthly salary index

Related news
France10月消费者信心指数由前月97Ascend to98
Germany11monthGFKConsumer confidence index has decreased9.7, for4Monthly low point
Germany9Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.1%, down from the same period last year1.8%

德拉吉称该央行已经意识到超低利率政策的代价上升

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1100 – 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.0900* – 1.0700



JPY yen - Policy Differences between the United States and Japan, Weak Development of the Japanese yen

日本政府九个月来首次上调对工业产出的评估，对企业信心看法的谨慎程度减弱，不过总体看法突显出经济复苏仍然脆弱。政府发布的10月经济报告维持整体评估，称经济仍在温和复苏但仍显疲弱。对工业产出的评估优于上月，上月评估说法为持平。在此同时，政府连续第二个月调高对企业信心的看法，称企业信心几乎持平，不过部分领域仍持谨慎态度。

As seen in the technical chart5月底起始之下降趋向线，至今形成阻力于104.30，美元兑日圆经过近期的一段整固行情后，若突破此趋向线阻力，则可望开展新一轮上升。由于相对强弱指标及随机指数维持着向上，似乎汇价继续走高之机会较大。较近阻力先看105关口，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.50，留意美元兑日圆7month21日触及的高位在107.47，这更显得此区的重要性。支持位方面，则会以100Balance moving average103水平为较近参考，较大支撑预估在102.20and101.50Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
Friday: Japan9All monthly household expenses‧National CoreCPI‧Nationwide as a wholeCPI‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate

Related news
月报：日本政府九个月来首上调工业产出评估，称经济仍温和复苏

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 104.30 – 105.00 – 107.50
support 103.00 – 102.20 – 101.50



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

英国央行总裁卡尼表示，随着决策者下周将考虑是否降息，央行无法忽略英镑下跌对通胀的影响。卡尼还对议员们称，政治层面的批评不会影响到他是否留任英国央行总裁的决定；但警告称任何对央行独立性的干预，都将损及英镑和并推升政府借贷成本。他并称，下周英国央行的议息会议“毫无疑问”将会把英镑的疲势纳入考量。

周二英镑最低跌至1.2081美元，为两周半来最低，此前英国央行总裁卡尼表示，央行在应对货币贬值对通胀造成的影响方面能力有限。在英国央行下周将召开会议之际，卡尼的评论浇熄了欧洲将会出现更多货币宽松的预期。

图表走势所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，同时，5Tianhe10天平均线正呈黄金交叉，估计若汇价仍然未有进一步破底的情况下，将面临大举反扑的风险。阻力先探上周高位1.2329，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.25and1.2630水平。支持位预估在1.2080and1.20Gateway.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK9monthBBANumber of approved mortgage loans
Thursday: UK Season 3GDPinitial value‧britain10monthCBIRetail sales difference
Friday: UK10monthGfKConsumer confidence index

Related news
britain10月工业订单差值从9The negative of the month5Reduce to negative17, creating2New low since September

英国央行总裁卡尼称不能无视英镑“相当明显的”下跌

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 - 1.2630
support 1.2080 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
瑞士央行总裁乔丹称必要时可能进一步下调负利率，直升机撒钱非瑞士央行的政策工具

Focus:
Thursday: Switzerland9UBS Group(UBS)Consumer index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 第三季通胀率上升，弱化降息可能性

澳元周三大幅走高，攀升至0.77上方，因好于预期的通胀数据降低了澳洲近期降息的可能性。澳洲第三季消费物价涨幅大于预期，核心年通胀率逾一年来首次上升。这促使投资者几乎完全排除了澳洲央行近期降息的可能性。周三公布的数据显示，澳洲第三季消费者物价年增率为1.3%，超越增长1.1%的预估。澳洲央行青睐的基础通胀指标--Season 3CPI截尾均值年增率为1.7%。利率期货市场再度大砍进一步降息的可能性，暗示澳洲央行在11month1日政策会议降息的机率仅有4%。澳洲央行下周举行月度政策会议，料将维持指针利率于纪录低位1.5%。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指数及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，示意澳元兑美元短期或见进一步反弹空间较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看25Balance moving average0.7620及近期连日守稳的0.7580水平，上升趋向线0.7520则为较关键支撑。

Related news
Australia Season 3CPIUp from the previous quarter0.7%, up from the same period last year1.3%
Australia Season 3CPI截尾均值较前季上升0.4%

Focus:
周四：澳洲第三季出口物价季率‧Seasonal import price rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7620 – 0.7580 – 0.7520*



NZD New Zealand dollars - 维持弱势下行

纽西兰央行将于11month10日开会，外界预期该行几乎肯定会降息至纪录低位1.75%，不过届时可能是当前周期的最后一次降息。

技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7190and50Balance moving average0.7250Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: New Zealand9Monthly trade balance‧New Zealand8Monthly imports‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Related news
央行总裁称，降息将使央行更接近使用非常规工具

Canada8Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500







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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)