Jinling Youdao10.24What impact will the US presidential election have on the market conditions for crude oil and silver next week

       In the history of speculative markets, no one was able to accurately predict every fluctuation of the market for a long time, but why are so many people able to continuously and stably make money from the market? This is a question that I have pondered for many years, and I feel that the most important conclusion I have drawn is that successful traders also predict market trends, but they never argue with the market situation itself. They only objectively respond to the reality of the market and do not try to find subjective reasons to prove their correctness. I don't want to say how powerful I am, I just want to say that you are lucky because you met me; I also want to say that you are unfortunate because you missed me.


　　2016The two candidates for the US presidential election, Hillary Clinton and Trump, both support the US oil industry in policy, which is not conducive to cooperation among international oil producing countries. Therefore, oil prices may not continue to rise. Market expectations of the two candidates supporting the US oil industry will lead to a decline in oil prices.


Trump's goal is to achieve complete energy independence in the United States and abolish drilling restrictions, making him perhaps the person who can benefit the oil market the most. However, Hillary's plan is to make the United States a clean energy power, which may also provide much-needed support for oil prices.


If Hillary takes office, oil prices will be higher than those under Trump, which will benefit those who already hold oil assets but not benefit consumers. According to Hillary, she hopes to take office after10Increase the use of clean energy within the year, thereby reducing the United Statescrude oilConsumption and limitations on hydraulic fracturing methods for exploring shale oil.


In addition, she plans to reduce tax subsidies for the oil and gas industry and invest heavily in clean energy. She also pointed out that climate change is a real and urgent threat, and the United States must become a super clean energy power to overcome the challenge.


Experts believe that Hillary Clinton hopes to promote clean energy, which may indeed reduce market demand for crude oil in the long run. However, in the medium term, she has hinted that she will continue the environmental protection policies of the Obama era, directly limiting crude oil supply and coal production, which can alleviate the country's oversupply of crude oil,WTIOil prices may be even higher than the Trump administration.


In contrast, Trump's perspective on the energy market is completely different. He once proposed to develop an "America First" energy plan, increase oil and gas production, and limit the US Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)The power, relaxation of coal production restrictions, and releaseKeystonePipelines, etc., and encourage operators to drill for oil in mainland reef layers. Experts believe that these measures will definitely increase the supply expectations of crude oil and coal, thereby lowering prices.


According to authoritative sources, Trump clearly hopes to revive the shale industry. Previously, foreign media speculated that if Trump takes office, he will appoint the founder of shale giant Continental Resources, who is also known asCEOHarold Hamm serves as the Minister of Energy. He said that if crude oil is bullish for the long term, traders may favor Trump. However, Trump's inauguration may lead to a recession in the United States, and his actions are unpredictable, which is detrimental to any asset.


　　goldIn terms of silver, it is influenced by the political situation in the United States and Brexit factors in the UK. At present, the strengthening of gold prices and the uncertainty of the US political situation and the policies of the new president will benefit the gold price11Performance during the month,11After the month, the price of gold may fall. If Hillary is elected, US policy will not change significantly and gold prices may fall back;If Trump is elected, uncertainty will persist for some time, and there is a chance for gold prices to rise again. Regarding oil prices, both candidates support the US oil industry in their policies, which is not conducive to cooperation among international oil producing countries, with Saudi Arabia and the United States being the two major ones.


　Overall, regardless of who takes office in the White House, crude oil and gasoline prices may only slowly recover during the first term.


Analysis of the market trend of crude oil asphalt and operational suggestions


　　OPECThe production restriction agreement is still fermenting, and investors are looking forward to Russia andOPECReaching an agreement will keep crude oil prices at50Above USD. In addition, the Russian Minister of Energy will report toOPECThe leader of Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producing country, has proposed suggestions to support oil prices, which may include freezing crude oil production. With the accelerated growth of the number of crude oil drilling platforms in the United States, concerns in the market that rising oil prices may prompt US shale oil producers to increase production have deepened. The number of active crude oil drilling platforms in the United States has increased again this week11Seats, the total number has reached443Seat, increasing for the eighth consecutive week. What does this mean for future oil prices to choose from?


　　51The support of the US dollar fell below, and the daily chart weakened and closed in a bearish position on Thursday. The physical price effectively broke through the short-term moving average support, and the price moved away from the moving average support. Short cycle indicators all experienced varying degrees of decline, coupled with the weakening of the next day's bearish closing, the bearish view on the daily chart should be established. At the four hour level, prices have been continuously weakening with bearish positions in various moving average systems, and short-term indicators have maintained a downward trend, clearly indicating a bearish advantage. After a few days of high consolidation, crude oil prices continued to decline on Friday with support, which is in line with our expectations50The support at the checkpoint is in danger, and breaking through may only be in terms of time.


From the daily chart, it can be seen that a candlestick with a lower shadow line was closed on Friday, and the price was closed at the bottom line5Above the daily moving average51Around the US dollar,5Daily moving average10The daily moving average is flat with support,MACDThe indicator is near the zero axis, and the fast and slow lines are running in a cross adhesive manner. The red kinetic energy is insufficient,KDJThe indicator runs downwards,RSIThe indicators diverge upwards. Combining message and technical aspects for analysis,50The US dollar, as the lifeline of oil prices, plays a strong supporting role and is expected to11month30In the days leading up to the crude oil conference, oil prices will experience a significant period of volatility, but they can still be sustained in the short term! Investors in the crude oil market need to pay attention next weekOPECThe news of production freeze and facing pressure from a rising US dollar, it is expected that crude oil prices may continue to be bearish next week. Contact Weixin for investment guidance on spot crude oil asphalt and silver:jlyd868


Suggestions for US crude oil operations next Monday:


　　1、50.1Buy long near the US dollar, stop loss0.3USD, target50.8Near the US dollar;


　　2、51.1Short near the US dollar, stop loss0.3USD, target50.4Near the US dollar;


　Silver Technology Analysis:


　The recent silver market has been relatively weak, and there is not much room for fluctuations. Yesterday, I continued to receive17.80Nearby suppression. The second highest point failed to break through. The final daily chart turned negative and fell back. But the entityKThe line is still very small. The silver four hour chart shows that it has been very weak recently. Daily analysis, always in a state of one90A market with box fluctuations within a profit range of individual points,KDJThe indicator's dead cross diverges downwards, but in recent times, due to fluctuations, silver has steadily landed and gradually started to turn around,CCIThe indicators have turned and are extending upwards, and the market is always breaking through in fluctuations. Silver has already been preparing for fluctuations10In these days, it is expected that silver will experience an upward break, indicating that the mid line order is about to come.


Suggestions for next Monday's operation of Baiyin:


　　1Rebound17.70-17.80Carry out empty order operations nearby and stop loss18.0, look at the goal17.50Nearby;


　　2Below17.40-17.30Multiple order operations nearby, stop loss17.30Below, look at the target17.60-17.65Nearby;


　　The biggest enemy is not greed, not fear, but luck. There is a reason why one cannot make money by hoping for a small probability of accidental events happening or not happening. Many mentality experts who ultimately passed the level of greed and fear were defeated by luck. Expectations usually don't appear, while worries often become reality. The market has fluctuated greatly this week, and friends who are not good at grasping the market and placing orders can privately chat about Jin Ling Youdao's own Weixinjlyd868I will provide you with necessary advice and strategies based on your actual situation.

In the history of speculative markets, no one was able to accurately predict every fluctuation of the market for a long time, but why are so many people able to continuously and stably make money from the market? This is a question that I have pondered for many years, and I feel that the most important conclusion I have drawn is that successful traders also predict market trends, but they never argue with the market situation itself. They only objectively respond to the reality of the market and do not try to find subjective reasons to prove their correctness. I don't want to say how powerful I am, I just want to say that you are lucky because you met me; I also want to say that you are unfortunate because you missed me.