Crossing the Sea 2016year10month19day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month19day

Focus this week:
10month19day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly overall capital flow
U.S.A8Monthly foreign investment purchasing US government bonds
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index
Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A9Monthly housing construction starts

10month20day(Thursday)
U.S.A10Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A9Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A9Monthly leading indicator monthly rate



Important economic data released today:
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value509.6
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value2,189.8
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index‧Previous value216.7
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate‧Previous value3.68%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly building permit annual rate‧forecast116.510000 households‧Previous value115.210000 households
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly building permit rate‧Previous value+0.7%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly housing construction annual rate‧forecast117.510000 households‧Previous value114.210000 households
20：30 U.S.A9月房屋开工月率‧Previous value-5.8%
22：00 Bank of Canada Rate Resolution‧forecast0.5%‧Previous value0.5%



News of the Week

U.S.A9Monthly industrial production increased compared to the previous month0.1%
New York Fed10The monthly manufacturing index is negative6.80Touching5Lowest since month
China9Monthly broad money supply(M2)Year-on-year growth11.5%
China9Monthly new RMB loans1.22Trillion yuan
中国三季度GDPYear-on-year growth6.7%, month on month growth1.8%
中国前三季度GDPYear-on-year growth6.7%
China1-9月工业增加值同比增长6.0%，社会消费品零售总额增长10.4%
China1-9月固定资产投资同比增长8.2%
China9Year-on-year growth in added value of industries above designated size per month6.1%
U.S.A9monthCPIUp from the previous month0.3%, up from the same period last year1.5%
U.S.A10monthNAHBThe housing market index is63



10month18day
LondongoldMorning order price:1261.65
London gold afternoon fixing price:1258.20



Today's Introduction

中国第三季GDP一如预期增长6.7%，工业生产不如预期

中国三季度GDP增速持平于二季度，符合市场预期。工业数据较好以及投资消费明显回升支持经济持稳，料四季度仍能保持这一态势。国家统计局周三公布数据显示，三季度国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长6.7%，持平于二季度，符合路透调查预估中值，环比则增长1.8%；前三季度GDP同比增长亦为6.7%。统计局并公布，1-9月固定资产投资同比增长8.2%，符合路透调查中值。9Year-on-year growth in added value of industries above designated size per month6.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增10.7%，路透调查预估中值分别为6.4%and10.6%。


Federal Reserve9月会议纪录显示支持上调贴现率的联储银行增至九家

美联储公布的贴现率会议记录显示，在9月会议上支持上调贴现率的地区联储银行增至九家，这是联储接近收紧政策的最新迹象。有三位联储决策者对政策决定持反对意见，支持立即上调指标利率。且美联储似乎已经准备好，一旦就业和通胀进一步增强，将在12月升息。根据CME Group的数据，交易员目前预计美联储12The possibility of monthly interest rate hikes is65%。

周二数据方面，美国9月剔除食品和能源成本的核心CPIUp from the previous month0.1%，8月时攀升0.3%。这令核心CPI同比涨幅放缓至2.2%，8Month is2.3%。数据致导市场略微削减对美国12月升息的押注。联邦基金利率futures走势暗示，美联储12月升息的可能性从70%下降至约65%。美联储主席耶伦上周表示，联储可能允许通胀率超出其目标水准。



XAU London Gold - Low level consolidation of gold prices

参加London Gold and Silver Market Association(LBMA) 年会的代表预计，金价在接下来12个月中将反弹，达到远高于每盎司1,300The level of the US dollar.

金价周三维持涨幅，因美元走软。周二数据显示，美国9月消费者物价录得五个月最大同比涨幅，因汽油和房租大涨。这显示通胀稳步上升，可能使美国联邦储备理事会(FED)继续迈向12月升息。

As shown in the technical chart, the gold price is currently relatively close to the resistance reference1272and1282USD, next level material is1290。下方支持见于1260and1250USD, with significant support1239, further estimated as250Balance moving average1226USD, gold price from2Monthly rise and fall250The antenna continues to rise, so if the future falls short of this area, or there is a signal that gold prices will usher in another round of decline, the key will be to1200The US dollar barrier.

London Gold10month19day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1260 – 1272
Resistance level:1282 – 1290
Support bit:1250 – 1239

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton


10Maturity date of monthly gold futures:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Breaking the Triangle and Extending Weakness under Silver Prices

据周一提交的法庭文件，德意志银行同意支付3,800万美元和解有关德银与其它银行共谋操纵银价的指控。

In terms of London silver, in the past two months, the overall fluctuation of silver prices has gradually narrowed and formed a triangular pattern. As the silver price falls below at the beginning of the month, it is expected to maintain a weak development. The estimated lower extension support is200Balance moving average17.20as well as16.90USD, next level material is16.60美元。向上较近阻力可参考18.00and18.30USD, reference for significant resistance18.60USD.

London Silver10month19day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.50 – 18.00
Resistance level:18.30 – 18.60
Support bit:17.20 – 16.90

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton
9month30Day - 11270.04ton
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton



EUR euro - Exploring the Beauty Finger98Pass, non US maintains pressure

美元指数周三自七个月高位回落，此前US Consumer Price Index(CPI) 显示核心通胀略为减弱，促使市场缩减对美国联邦储备理事会(FED)12月升息的押注。9月剔除食品和能源成本的核心CPIUp from the previous month0.1%，8月时攀升0.3%。 coreCPI同比涨幅放缓至2.2%，8Month is2.3%。联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储12月升息的机率为65%左右，比美国CPI数据公布前的70%有所下降。今早中国公布一连串数据后，主要货币的整体反应有限，因为没有太大的意外。中国第三季gross domestic product(GDP) 符合市场预期，9月工业增加值低于预期。

欧元兑美元持稳在1.10水平附近。欧洲央行周四召开政策会议前，市场态度谨慎，令欧元承压。外界广泛预期欧洲央行将维持政策不变，关于未来资产购买计划的决定预计要推迟到12月做出。

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range and entering the end region of the triangular pattern, it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market will be launched in the short term. The top of the triangle is located at1.1260At the bottom, see1.1140The euro fell against the US dollar last Friday1.10Below the horizontal level, it has initially broken through the triangular pattern; In addition,1.11Also250The balance moving average position is expected to see a wave of decline in the euro, which will further lead to1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal. The upper resistance is estimated to be50Balance moving average1.12Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Eurozone10Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.1000 – 1.0900 – 1.0700



JPY yen - Policy Differences between the United States and Japan, Weak Development of the Japanese yen

The Bank of Japan, in its quarterly report on Monday, maintained the economic assessments of six out of nine regions unchanged and raised the economic assessments of two regions. But the central bank2013year1The assessment for the East China Sea region has been lowered for the first time since the beginning of this month, stating that the region's economic expansion is weakening. In its7In the monthly report, the central bank stated that the region's economy is showing a moderate expansion trend.

The US dollar index suspended its recent gains and fell on Tuesday, breaking away from a seven month high as investors evaluated their expectations for US monetary policy in the near future. The US dollar fell slightly against the Japanese yen to104Below. Bank of Japan10month31day-11month1A policy meeting will be held on the day and new quarterly growth and inflation estimates will be released. However, as the central bank just readjusted its policy framework last month, it is expected that policies will not be relaxed in the near future. According to a Reuters corporate survey released on Tuesday, Japanese companies have little confidence in the recent policy shift by the Bank of Japan. Many companies believe that this move will not generate the long-awaited inflation, nor will it stimulate companies to increase investment or affect the economy.

In terms of technical trend, the US dollar has been rising against the Japanese yen for several days, and the significant increase last Tuesday has even broken through the top of the triangular pattern formed in the past three months. After the pattern breaks through, it indicates that the exchange rate still has a tendency to further rise, and the target can be seen first105Gateway. In addition, at the beginning of this year, the high point reached6month24Daily low99.08Calculate the cumulative decline of,38.2%Rebound level107.70Expand to50%Then it is110.40. as for200Balance moving average108.10It can also serve as another basis for resistance. The closest supporting material is102.30, with significant support estimated at50Balance moving average101.80and100Pass, please pay attention9In the second half of the month, the exchange rate made repeated attempts, but remained stable100Therefore, it will be regarded as a key support level for the mid-term trend.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.70 – 108.40 – 110.40
support 102.30 – 101.60 – 100.00



GBP pound - Domestic and foreign troubles suppress the trend of the pound

英镑兑美元周二上涨0.95%，创六周来最大涨幅，并触及一周高位1.2326。英镑空头回补被触发。之前一位代表英国政府的律师表示，退欧协议 “很可能”须获得议会的批准，另外，英国通胀数据强于预期。投资者基本认为，整体而言，英国议员对硬脱欧的支持力度不及首相特雷莎梅及其指定负责退欧协商的部长们。

As can be seen from the chart, the GBP/USD has fallen below the starting point of this month1.30After the checkpoint, it continues to be in a downward trend, and it is expected to extend the downward target to1.22To the extent that1.20At the entrance, the larger supporting material is1.18Horizontal. The estimated upper resistance is1.2500and1.2620The next level material is1.2830Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK9Annual rate of monthly average weekly salary income‧Monthly rate of people claiming unemployment benefits‧UK as of8According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate
Thursday: UK9Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy%
Friday: UK9Monthly deduction of net public sector loans from state-owned banks‧Public sector net borrowing(PSNB)‧Shortfall in revenue and expenditure in the public sector(PSNCR)

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2620 – 1.2800
support 1.2200 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
10month20day(four)Switzerland9Monthly trade balance(Swiss franc)‧Previous value30.25Yiyi surplus

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - The President of the Central Bank expressed satisfaction with the exchange rate level

澳元兑美元周三止住了近日涨势，因中国工业增加值数据略低于预期，但总体经济增长平稳。中国国家统计局周三公布，三季度国内生产总值(GDP)Year-on-year growth6.7%，持平于二季度，符合路透调查预估中值，这缓解了那些在今年稍早担心中国经济会硬着陆的投资者的担忧。另外，美国隔夜公布的数据未能支持美元。数据显示，核心消费者物价指数(CPI)升幅放缓，略微降低了美国联邦储备理事会(Federal Reserve/FED)stay12月升息的可能性。

As shown in the technical chart, AUD/USD8month11Daily high0.7760，9month8Daily high0.7732，9month29Daily high0.7711Despite the gradual decline in high levels, it is expected that the Australian dollar will still see room for adjustment in the short term. Calculated from the cumulative increase from the low point in May to the high point in August,50%The callback amplitude is0.7450The low point reached in September also happened to stop in this area. If it expands to61.8%Will reach0.7380Horizontal, this position is also250The location of the balance moving average; If it breaks further, there is a chance to try again5month24Daily low0.7145. The upper resistance is seen in0.77The downward trend line of is estimated to have significant resistance as0.78Horizontal.

Related news
Meeting minutes: The central bank emphasized the impact of the third quarter inflation data on11The importance of determining monthly interest rates

Focus:
Thursday: Australia9Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7700 – 0.7800
support 0.7450 – 0.7380* – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - Inflation data triggers a jump in the New Zealand dollar

until9月初，纽元兑美元年内涨幅已近10%，不过此后纽元下跌4%。纽元兑澳元也逼近平价水平。今年大部分时间里支撑纽元的因素一直是该国的利率。纽西兰利率水平要高于日本、欧洲和美国的超低利率甚至负利率。不过，利差可能会缩小，从而削弱纽元的吸引力。纽西兰央行11month10日的下次政策会议上，或将调降指标利率，因第三季0.2%的年通胀率远低于央行设定的1-3%The goal of.8月时纽西兰央行降息25Bps to2.00%。与此同时，投资者在押注美国联邦储备理事会(FED)Will be on12月升息。

纽元兑美元涨至0.7235，为连续第四日上涨，受周二强于预期的通胀数据和全球奶制品价格上涨提振。技术走势而言，纽元兑美元上周勉力守住0.70At the checkpoint, there was a technical rebound afterwards and remained stable on Monday0.71Horizontally above. As shown in the technical chart, the New Zealand dollar has fallen below the upward trend line formed in the past five months, showing a downward trend; along with10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7150and50Balance moving average0.7260Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7170 – 0.7260 – 0.7320
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
10month18day(two): Canada8Monthly manufacturing sales rate
10month19day(three)Bank of Canada Interest Rate Resolution
10month21day(five): Canada9monthCPIMonthly rate‧Central Bank CoreCPI‧Canada8Monthly retail sales‧Deduction of retail sales of automobiles

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)