兴业投资：英国通胀远超预期 英镑登上1.23Gateway

兴业投资：英国通胀远超预期 英镑登上1.23Gateway
2016year10month19day
euro/dollar
周二欧元/The US dollar basically gave up its gains on Monday and fell back again1.10Pass, lowest descent1.0969, suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar. The inflation data released by the United States overnight is mixed. Data display, United States9monthCPIThe monthly rate meets expectations as0.3%The annual rate is also determined by1.1%Ascend to1.5%;coreCPIThe monthly and annual rates did not meet expectations and increased respectively0.1%and2.2%. The impact of this data on the expected interest rate hike in the United States this year is not significant, and the market still generally believes that12There is a high possibility of interest rate hikes in the month, and as a result, the US dollar has rebounded slightly. At present, the market is shifting its focus to the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday, which is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged. However, the outlook for future bond purchases still needs to be learned from Draghi's speech. Today you can follow the Eurozone8Monthly production rate of the construction industry/Annual rate and the United States9Monthly data on new housing construction and construction permits.
日图欧元兑美元无法突破亚市早盘高点1.1026, closing on1.10Below. Short to medium term bearish.4Hourly chart exchange rate hovers around recent decline1.1205-1.0963of23.6%Reverse gear1.1020Nearby, the exchange rate has returned to a slightly bearish position20SMABelow, the kinetic energy index hovers around100Below.RSISelf oversold rebounded. But it is still below the recent low, indicating a lack of buying enthusiasm.38.2%The retracement level coincides with Thursday's high point1.1055If broken, it will be corrected to rise higher.1Hour chart1.10After a slight fluctuation above the checkpoint, the previous trend of fluctuation and decline continued.
Support position:1.0950/1.0910/1.0860
Resistance level:1.1020/1.1055/1.1100
pound/dollar
pound/美元受空头回补和英国通胀数据回升的支持而连续第二日反弹，最高上探一周多高位1.2323，当日收复1.23关口。数据显示，英国9monthCPIAnnual growth rate1%，相对于八月份的0.6%出现了大幅增长，且高于市场预期的0.9%, creating2014year11The highest since the beginning of the month.9月通胀上升的最大原因是服装类产品的价格上升符合往年的普遍趋势。此前，英国央行行长表态称，将允许通胀小幅超过2%的目标值，以支持经济、避免失业率升高。这意味着英国央行可能不会采取相应的紧缩型货币政策来控制通胀。不过，投资者需谨防英国退欧方面的负面消息对英镑的打击。今日重点关注英国就业报告，预计9月失业率将持稳于2.2%，失业金申请人数将增加0.32万。如果数据好于预期的话，英镑可能会在1.23关口上方扩大涨幅。
技术上，日图连续两日小幅走高至20Above the daily moving average(1.23frontline)，需确认能否企稳于该关口上方才能判断是否可以进一步上涨。4小时图汇价反弹至温和看涨的20SMA上方，位于1.2215附近。动能指标继续走高，尽管位于超买区域，RSI失去上行动能，但守住59附近。表明汇价在升向1.2475之前可能陷入盘整。1Hour chart from1.2140附近温和走高至1.2295一线，日内关注汇价能否企稳于MA200upper.
Support position:1.2260/1.2220/1.2180
Resistance level:1.2320/1.2375/1.2430
dollar/Japanese yen
日内近期经济数据较清淡，因此近期走势基本跟随市场情绪在变动。欧美股市涨势出现停滞，难免令市场的避险情绪有所回升，促使日元小幅反弹。美元/日元连续第二日小幅下跌，震荡交投于七周高位，略微收于104关口下方。隔夜日本财政大臣麻生表示在密切关注汇市，以谨防日元过度波动影响日本经济。今日亚市中国公布的零售销售等重磅数据表现虽符合预期，但依旧显示中国经济增长缓慢，市场的避险情绪可能不会出现特别大的变化，或将对日元构成支撑。
日图自周初以来汇价处于整理阶段，波动不大，但过去数日来看汇价上行动能有所降低，汇价已经走出更低的低位，和更低的高位。汇价技术指标处在消极区域，尽管汇价看跌动能有限，但未有信号表明汇价将延续上行。4小时图显示动能指标温和朝北，处在100上方，但相对强弱指标加速向下，处在48附近，汇价维持在均线远上方，支持汇价短期下行，但不足延续下行。汇价下行的支撑位处在 100 Daily moving average102.60 Near.1小时图示100小时均线突破200小时均线，两条均线处在现价下方，表明汇价长期下行动能有限。
Support position:103.70/103.30/102.95
Resistance level:104.10/104.40/104.90
dollar/Cad
从本周以来，商品货币的涨势可谓喜人。美元/加元已经是连续第四日反弹，周二收录十字星阴线，整理近期跌势，持稳于1.31关口。国际油价当天的反弹为加元上涨提供动力。市场对OPEC限产预期的乐观态度以及美国APIcrude oil库存的大降令国际油价重新在50关口上方走高。不过油价的前景似乎并不是非常乐观，走势可能会较震荡。今日需重点关注加央行利率决议，预计加央行将维持0.5%的利率不变，重点关注其行长的讲话基调，将影响加元的走势。
日图连续多日下跌，但1.3050一线的支持较强，可能会限制汇价的跌幅。4小时图逐步接近震荡区间的底部1.3050一线，可能暂时会维持在该水平上方。小时图MA50(1.3130frontline)受阻延续此前震荡走势，但维稳于1.31一线上方将仍有反弹的机会。
Support position:1.3050/1.3000/1.2950
Resistance level:1.3180/1.3250/1.3300