"Needle tip against wheat awn"The rift between the US and Japan over the exchange rate issue remains

The two-day G7 summit（G7）Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting on Saturday（5month21The closing ceremony was held in Sendai, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Major member countries such as Japan, the United States, and Germany have failed to reach consensus on key issues such as exchange rate fluctuations and the implementation of fiscal stimulus, which is consistent with the expectations of many analysts.

There are different opinions between the United States and Japan regarding the recent exchange rate fluctuations. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso（Taro Aso）It is believed that there have been some speculative behaviors and one-way fluctuations in the exchange rate market recently, which are not desirable. This emphasizes the importance of exchange rate stability and believes that excessive and disorderly exchange rate fluctuations will cause damage to the real economy. But US Treasury Secretary Jack Lu（Jack Lew）It is believed that the current exchange rate market is not in a disorderly state.Foreign exchange gold

Jinhui Finance introduced yesterday that,

Taro Aso:

[blockquote]
G7Reiterate the importance of exchange rate stability. excessiveforeign exchangeFluctuations damage economic and financial stability;G7The country has confirmed the existing foreign exchange agreement. The recent foreign exchange fluctuations are mainly unilateral and speculative. Emphasizing the importance of exchange rate stability; We need to avoid exchange rate competition and depreciation.

We have informed US Treasury Secretary Lu about the issue of speculation and unilateral trends in foreign exchange. Inform Lu that stable foreign exchange is important and that Lu does not want to see unexpected trends in foreign exchange. Each country has expressed its own views on exchange rates. If there are some differences in the issue of foreign exchange, it is not surprising; There is not much disagreement with the United States on foreign exchange issues. It is obvious that the recent trend of foreign exchange is not orderly.[/blockquote]
Jack Lu:
[blockquote]
G7Member states reaffirm their foreign exchange commitments andG20It is very important for member states to maintain communication on foreign exchange fluctuations, and there has been good communication with Japan on foreign exchange and other issues. The fact that consensus has been reached in Shanghai sends a very powerful signal.

The disorderly fluctuations of foreign exchange are limited.G7It is normal for member countries to have differences in their policy combinations. It is impossible for a policy model to be suitable for any member country. There was no detailed discussion on the foreign exchange watchlist.[/blockquote]
Nikkei News commented that senior US officials pointed out that the yen exchange rate is "orderly," following the example of Treasury Secretary Jack Lu4Mid month statement. However, Jack Lu used the word "recently" to make the time appear vague, and this time the speech of a high-ranking US official specifically mentioned "the past few months".

[blockquote]
At the beginning of the year, it was1USD exchange rate120The exchange rate of the Japanese yen is around5At the beginning of the month, JapangoldDuring the weekly break, the value increased to approximately105Japanese yen. The Japanese monetary authorities believe that the trend of yen appreciation is very rapid. Some analysts believe that due to the trend of the exchange rate, we are at a critical juncture where we have to reveal our 'intervention weapon'.

Due to the explicit mention of the "several months" period by senior US officials, Japan's exchange rate assessment was rejected, causing a complete loss of face.

The tense stalemate between Japan and the United States is the United States4The semi annual exchange rate report released at the end of the month. Japan, Germany, and China have been added to the newly established "surveillance list"5Several countries and regions have stated that they will monitor their exchange rate policies.

Previously, the US Treasury Department had announced that countries and regions such as China, Germany, and Japan would be included in the new foreign exchange watch list. The United States also warned that the worsening trade imbalance with the United States may lead to more scrutiny from the three countries mentioned above, and the United States does not rule out future retaliatory actions.[/blockquote]
According to Reuters,G7Cracks in fiscal policy and exchange rate may lead toG7Member states have reached a consensus of 'going their own way' to mitigate the risks hindering global economic growth. Due to years of aggressive monetary policy approaching its limit,G7The divergence among member states in addressing issues such as weak inflation and slowing growth is growing.

Needle tip against wheat awn

Many investment banks and analysts are now skeptical about how much policy ammunition the Bank of Japan still has, as well as its ability to achieve inflation and economic targets. Although many investment bankers still believe that the central bank cannot resist intervening,105The checkpoint was once considered a possible intervention point, but the enormous pressure from the United States ahead is still believed to constrain the central bank's actions, making positions betting on the rise of the yen even more reckless.

Especially with the addition of current account surplus and global uncertainty due to concerns about China's economic growth, the demand for safe haven yen will be boosted, making the call for bullish yen even stronger. Even though some commercial traders as "smart money" have started to hold net short positions in yen, the rise of yen is unlikely to come to an end as long as the US mountains remain unresolved.
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