ZFXShanhai Securities: Gold Price Sprint4300The Great Wall of the US Dollar!

Last Friday（12month12Gold prices perform well, spot pricesgoldrise0.48%, receive reports per ounce4300Near the US dollar, the highest reached during trading4353dollar/Oz, this is from10month21The highest level in recent days. US futures also rose0.4%The settlement price has reached4328.3The US dollar. This upward trend has given gold bulls full confidence, especially after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time last week25After one basis point, the market's expectations for loose monetary policy have further increased.


1、 Wall Street is generally bullish, and investor enthusiasm is high

LatestKitcoThe results of the weekly gold survey in the news are encouraging, among Wall Street analysts85%It is expected that gold prices will rise in the coming week, with no one bearish, only15%I think it will be organized horizontally.Adrian DayExperts pointed out that the large-scale purchase of treasury bond bonds by the Federal Reserve (although not called quantitative easing) is good for gold. For individual investors,71%Bullish gold indicates strong sentiment on the main street.

Industry insiders emphasize that gold is currently the mainstream trend in the market, with central banks, pension funds, and investment funds continuing to buy. Short term profit taking will not change the technical upward trend.

2、 Global Monetary System Restructuring Supports Gold Prices


The current restructuring of the global monetary system provides a long-term logic for the rise of gold. The United States' weaponization of the US dollar has prompted countries to accelerate their effortsforeign exchangeThe optimization of reserve structure highlights the strategic value of gold as an asset that is not affected by sovereign credit. Currently, developed countries such as the United States and Germany account for a larger proportion of official global gold reserves60%However, the proportion of gold reserves in emerging markets such as China and India to foreign exchange reserves is still insufficient4%There is enormous room for improvement in the future. This trend of de dollarization and the demand for replenishing gold reserves will form the core support for the long-term bull market of gold.

3、 Long lead, but beware of pullback risk


Although the Federal Reserve has hinted at being cautious about further interest rate cuts until more data is released, investors still expect two opportunities for rate cuts next year, providing strong support for gold. As a traditional safe haven asset, gold continues to attract capital inflows in the context of increasing global uncertainty. Monday（12month15In the morning session of the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading at4306.17dollar/Around ounces.

Overall, gold is currently in a strong channel, with both fundamental and technical support for further gains, and the target is aimed at4350-4400The US dollar range. But the profit taking of silver and the hawkish divisions within the Federal Reserve remind us that short-term volatility will increase. Before this week's non farm payroll data, it is recommended that long positions in gold be the main focus, while light positions can be held4250-4280Layout for dips near the US dollar, with stop loss set at4200Below. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of the US dollar and US bond yields. If the US dollar continues to weaken, the upward space for gold prices will be further opened up. Risk averse individuals can pay attention to geopolitical events, such as the progress of the US Ukraine peace plan, which may trigger a rise in risk aversion. In short, after the data vacuum period ends, gold trading opportunities will become more clear. It is recommended to closely track real-time dynamics, operate rationally, and avoid chasing high risks.