The central bank and foreign exchange bureau have raised macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing

Use stable exchange rate tools again.

　　7month20Japan, People's Bank of China, Stateforeign exchangeThe bureau announced its decision to adjust the macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing of enterprises and financial institutions from1.25Up to1.5The aim is to further improve the macro prudential management of comprehensive cross-border financing, continue to increase cross-border funding sources for enterprises and financial institutions, and guide them to optimize their asset liability structure.

This is the time interval9Over the past month, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have once again adjusted the parameters of cross-border macro prudential regulation. This adjustment has been made to cover all aspects of enterprises and financial institutions, and has exceeded the upper limit. Analysts believe that this move aims to unleash more external debt financing potential for domestic enterprises and financial institutions, encourage external debt financing and help balance international payments, and also release policy signals to stabilize exchange rates and expectations to the market.

Encourage cross-border financing Relieve the pressure of RMB depreciation

Strong efforts, clear attitude, and predictable exchange rate stability, "commented market participants on the latest parameter adjustments. The reason for this is that firstly, enterprises and financial institutions have raised their overall standards, and secondly, the parameters have been adjusted to1.5A new high.

The macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing were first set in2016In, it was initially stipulated that the macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing were1, from2020Since the beginning of the year, there have been multiple adjustments, and the most recent increase was in the2022year10Month.

The higher the macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing, the higher the upper limit that enterprises and financial institutions can raise cross-border financing. "Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that this not only benefits small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises to better utilize various international and domestic channels to raise funds, but also directly increases domestic US dollar liquidity and alleviates the pressure of RMB depreciation.

According to Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, raising the macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing is conducive to increasing cross-border financing quotas for domestic enterprises and financial institutions, facilitating cross-border capital inflows, and optimizing the asset liability structure. At the same time, with the increase in domestic foreign exchange funds, the corresponding demand for foreign exchange settlement increases, which also has the effect of stabilizing the exchange rate.

Recently, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate may be a direct reason for the upward adjustment of macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing. The background of this parameter increase is that compared to the recent trend of the US dollar, the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB has increased. The financial management department has used policy tools to stabilize the foreign exchange market, guide market expectations, and avoid large fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate outside of a reasonable and balanced range, "Wang Qing said.

This adjustment is also consistent with the recent policy background. The recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China2023The second quarter regular meeting of the year pointed out that "comprehensive measures should be taken to stabilize expectations, resolutely prevent the risk of major fluctuations in the exchange rate, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

Release US dollar liquidity

Relieve external pressure on RMB depreciation

The current exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar is at7.2Nearby, this adjustment reflects the regulatory authorities' intention to reasonably guide market exchange rate expectations Wenbin said.

Looking back, the recent two increases in macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing correspond to a stage of significant pressure on the depreciation of the RMB.2022year10In January, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange raised the macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing of financial institutions and enterprises by1to1.25At that time, it was in the depreciation range of the RMB, and this adjustment is also the same.

Recently, the market has adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the pace of domestic economic recovery,CFETSThe basket index of the Chinese yuan exchange rate has fallen, and the US dollar index has fallen below it100Afterwards, there was a rebound, and the RMB exchange rate was depreciated in the short term Wu Dan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, explained that after the adjustment of parameters and the expansion of foreign debt quotas, the liquidity of the US dollar in the domestic market will increase, which will alleviate the external pressure of the recent depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, facilitate the balance of foreign exchange supply and demand in the market, and guide the market to maintain reasonable expectations of exchange rate trends.

Looking ahead to the exchange rate trend in the second half of the year, Wang Qing stated that under the continuous release of stable exchange rate signals, the RMB exchange rate is expected to be significantly repaired. With the implementation of regulatory policies, it is expected to have a significant correction effect on market expectations, and the RMB exchange rate will experience a significant rebound in the short term; The subsequent trend of the RMB exchange rate will mainly depend on the pace and intensity of the implementation of stable growth policies, as well as the macroeconomic trend in the third quarter.

In the long run, Wen Bin believes that the regulatory "exchange rate toolbox" is still relatively sufficient, mainly including tools such as foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio, forward foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, cross-border financing leverage ratio, and macro prudential adjustment coefficient for domestic enterprises' overseas loans. The financial management department can continue to provide reasonable and effective guidance to market expectations when necessary.

Encouraged by the news of increasing the macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing,7month20On the day, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar significantly strengthened. Among them, the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached its highest intraday level7.1620Compared to the previous day's closing price, it has appreciated by more than600Point; The offshore RMB/US dollar exchange rate rose sharply in the early trading session, breaking through one after another7.23、7.22、7.21、7.20、7.19Five passes.