Return of Renminbi exchange rate6.9Below, it is expected that the Chinese yuan will be around its equilibrium level...

　　8month30Daily report on the middle rate of RMB to USD exchange rate6.8802, down from the previous trading day104Point. as of8month30day20At that time, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate report6.8998The lowest within the day is6.9211Offshore Renminbi to US Dollar Exchange Rate Report6.9104, also lower than the lowest point of the day6.9264There has been a slight rebound.

　　相较其他非美货币，人民币的波动幅度相对较小。分析称，短期内，在美联储货币政策维持紧缩的情况下，人民币对美元仍有贬值压力；但从国内经济基本面、贸易条件、国外金融条件来看，人民币兑一篮子货币贬值空间不大。

　　人民币汇率相对其他非美货币波动幅度较小

　　8month30As of today, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has decreased compared to the previous trading day8month30day20At that time, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate report6.8998The lowest within the day is6.9211Offshore Renminbi to US Dollar Exchange Rate Report6.9104, also lower than the lowest point of the day6.9264There has been a slight rebound.

From2020year7Within a year and a half after the month, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates are basically at6.3-6.8Fluctuated within the range until this year5Breakthrough once in mid month6.8At the checkpoint, but later the RMB rebounded and returned to6.6-6.7Level. this year8Starting from mid month, the Renminbi has been continuously declining, with onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates falling below the US dollar one after another6.8、6.9Gateway.

　　另一边，美元指数从8month10Of105Ascend all the way from left to right8month22Of108Above, the seven trading days since then have remained at108Above, to8month29Daily highest breakthrough109.4。

　　光大银行金融市场部分析师周茂华对新京报贝壳财经记者表示，美联储不断释放鹰派信号，市场对美联储激进加息预期升温，加之市场对欧洲经济前景悲观预期，推动美元短期强劲反弹，人民币等非美货币集体走弱。

　　周茂华还指出，值得关注的是，人民币对一篮子货币汇率指数仍处于100Above, it reflects that the RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, mainly due to the relatively greater depreciation of non US currencies other than the RMB.8month11Recently, the fluctuation range of the Renminbi among major international currencies has been relatively minimal.

　　事实上，不仅仅是人民币，其他非美货币近期也出现明显贬值。其中，日元和欧元的下跌已经维持了一段时间。美元兑日元汇率从今年初的115Falling all the way from left to right7Of135about,7month14Daily drop below139；8month29On the day, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen broke through138, approximation139, already approaching7month14The low point set by the day. The euro remains weak against the US dollar this year7In mid month, the euro fell below the US dollar for the first time1：1After,8month22The Japanese euro fell below parity again against the US dollar, and then8month23Exploring under the Sun0.990Since then, the euro to dollar exchange rate has remained below parity level,8month29Daily closing0.9998。

　　鲍威尔“鹰派”讲话扭转市场预期 US inflation has not yet peaked

　　近期美元的强势与美联储主席鲍威尔的“鹰派”表态有关。8month26At the Jackson Hole Central Bank annual meeting, Powell delivered a hawkish speech that exceeded expectations. Powell said, "Restoring price stability may require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for a period of time. The historical record strongly warns against premature policy easing

　　鲍威尔还暗示，即使降低通胀的紧缩措施可能会牺牲就业和经济增长，但这是需要付出的代价。他表示，降低通胀可能需要经历一段持续的低于趋势增长率的时期，劳动力市场状况也很可能会有所软化。“这些都是降低通胀的不幸代价。但如果不能恢复价格稳定，将意味着更大的痛苦。”

　　鲍威尔的讲话扭转了此前市场对于美联储货币政策即将转“鸽”的预期。芝商所（CME）FedWatchThe tool shows that currently the market is concerned about the Federal Reserve9Monthly meeting interest rate hike75The expectation of one basis point has significantly increased. In7At the monthly meeting, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second consecutive time75By one basis point, raise the target range of the federal funds rate to2.25%-2.50%. stay7After the announcement of the monthly meeting results, the market expects the Federal Reserve to9The pace of monthly interest rate hikes will slow down,9Monthly interest rate increase50The probability of exceeding one basis point70%Interest rate hike75The probability of one basis point is insufficient30%Before the Jackson Hole Conference,8month22The Japanese market for the Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate increase50Basis points and75The expected probability of one basis point is almost the same; Just one week later,8month29Day, interest rate hike75The probability of one basis point is already as high as72.5%。

　　工银国际首席经济学家程实指出，美国通胀并未见顶，控制通胀是长期首要任务。7The main reason for the decline in monthly US inflation data is the significant correction in energy prices. However, Powell believes that the current overall US inflation rate decline still does not support the peak of US inflation, as inflation expectations and core inflation have not yet seen a significant and sustained downward trend. From the perspective of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the current widespread inflation in the market no longer supports the Fed to end interest rate hikes early. At the Jackson Hole annual meeting, the Federal Reserve readjusted its expectations for terminal interest rates, emphasizing that the path of interest rate hikes will remain stable and coherent. This means that before inflation falls back to its target level, the Federal Reserve will continue to use "raising interest rates and maintaining them" as the main tone of its monetary policy path in the coming period. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve will try to avoid a "hump shaped interest rate path" as much as possible in the future. Frequent forward guidance and extreme interest rate path shifts will only gradually make the market lose patience with the Federal Reserve.

　　程实预测，9The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates this month75A basis point, the annual interest rate hike is3.75-4.25Basis points.

　　未来走势如何？分析称人民币有望在均衡水平附近运行

　　接下来人民币汇率走势将如何变化？

　　周茂华表示，从目前人民币面临的环境看，由于欧美政经前景不确定性将加剧全球foreign exchangeMarket fluctuations, if the European energy crisis continues by the end of the year, inflation and economic prospects worsen beyond expectations, will inevitably push up the strength of the US dollar, and there will still be depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan against the US dollar. But the renminbi is expected to operate near equilibrium levels and normalize two-way fluctuations. The overall situation of domestic epidemic prevention is improving, with policy support for ensuring supply, stabilizing prices, relieving difficulties and assisting enterprises, and stabilizing growth. This will continue to promote the steady recovery of domestic consumption, investment, and foreign trade, which is the greatest certainty in the world. In addition, China's supply chain industry chain has resumed smooth operation, foreign trade structure has been optimized, foreign trade enterprises have improved quality and efficiency, foreign trade resilience is sufficient, the long-term allocation value of RMB assets has become prominent, and international balance of payments will remain basically balanced; The elasticity of the RMB exchange rate has also significantly increased.

　　周茂华预计，人民币年底“破7”The possibility is not high. On the one hand, the domestic economic recovery trend is clear, and the international balance of payments is basically balanced; On the other hand, in recent times, the market has fully priced the Federal Reserve's policies, the trend of the US economy has slowed down, and coupled with the European Central Bank's aggressive interest rate hikes, the foundation for the short-term significant strengthening of the US dollar is weakening. He expects the Chinese yuan to experience a bottoming out and rebound trend in the second half of the year. In the medium to long term, the RMB exchange rate will maintain a stable operation and a slow appreciation trend.

　　华泰证券研究员易峘指出，由于美元进入冲高筑顶阶段，短期人民币汇率可能承压，但兑一篮子货币贬值空间不大。从贸易条件角度分析，人民币汇率贬值压力并不高于欧元、日元、英镑等其他主要货币，贸易顺差也支撑人民币长期竞争力，人民币相对损失不会超过欧日，所以，人民币兑一篮子货币贬值压力不大。

　　易峘还提出，人民币汇率走势也提醒我们，在外需下行压力加剧的宏观背景下，稳增长力度需进一步加码加速，才能够有效稳预期，防止再次出现股、债、汇共振走弱局面。当前亟须更多重塑市场信心的宏观刺激政策，同时经济基本面自身增长动能的恢复也相当关键。