Chen Jiazhe:黄金反弹渐弱关注1800，原油低位震荡警惕伊核谈判

When you see this article, I already understand that you are currently facing difficulties. First of all, Chen Jiazhe wants to make one point. It is a fate that you can see my article among millions of analysts. Since it is a fate, I hope to maintain it, find me, and communicate with me. So, the difficulties you are currently facing may be just one of the many examples that Chen Jiazhe has seen since becoming an analyst, So you can share all the problems you encounter with me, which not only allows you to learn more knowledge from me, but also to understand more principles. You can even continue to survive and make profits in this unpredictable market. Of course, you are currently continuously losing money, so you should ask yourself in your heart where the problem lies, or do you say that I lack a teacher who has a good understanding of myself? So I think as long as you carefully read Chen Jiazhe's article, you will definitely gain something and seize a straw in the current predicament.

Yesterday,gold价格小幅反弹，最高触及1790一线，波动并不是很大，周一经济数据较少，纽约联储调查显示美消费者对未来一年和三年的通胀预期大幅下降，就未来一年预期而言，预期下降是由汽油和食品价格增长预期的大幅下降所驱动的，同时美元和美债收益率下跌，给黄金价格提供支撑，不过，给金价提供更多支撑的是地缘政治局势担忧；黄金市场在上周非农数据后，市场对美联储9Monthly interest rate hike75个基点的预期大幅升温，目前仍可能会限制价格的上涨空间。

　　周三将发布的7monthCPI将是下一个重要经济数据，据市场目前预期，7monthCPIwith8.9%的速度增长。尽管预计7monthCPIAnd6月相比会放缓，但核心CPI将在环比基础上保持强劲。除了通胀数据，还需关注美8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值，预计最近汽油价格下降和股市反弹将导致市场情绪好转。另外，美联储官员本周会加大对通胀和劳动力市场趋紧的关注，这仍然是他们最关心的问题，而不是经济增长问题。

　　黄金价格近几日没有太大的波动，价格围绕着1780上下波动，形成横盘震荡走势，上方1800关口阻力强劲，短线上破有点难度。日线级别，布林带开口，价格在上轨附近横盘整理，价格的这波反弹暂时在这个位置附近滞涨，市场对9月加息预期的升温在一定程度上限制了价格的上涨，同时周三有通胀数据出炉，预期数据公布之前价格波动不会太大。4小时，布林带收口，价格冲高回落，在1890一线形成了头肩顶的形态，短线价格有回调迹象，日内操作思路上先看一波回落，上方关注1795-1800Regional resistance.

　　crude oil价格周一震荡上行，价格重新回到了90美元上方，受益于美7月非农就业岗位大增，我国7月原油进口反弹，缓解了经济衰退担忧，同时，乌俄就核电站遭炮击互相指责，地缘紧张局势提振油价。但美最新能源政策仍可能破坏经济增长，而为避免油价飙升，欧盟对俄惩罚性措施可能有所保留，低价供应的俄有助于提高亚洲炼油厂的利润率，而在今年晚些时候欧洲禁令生效以及可能对俄实施更多制裁之前，价格压力可能会持续存在，短线原油价格反弹有难度。

　　昨日，欧盟向伊朗核问题全面协议恢复履约谈判各参与方提交了一份关于恢复履行2015年伊核协议的“最终文本”，并期待各方对这一“最终文本”做出政治决定。欧盟外交官表示，所有可以协商的内容都已协商过，现在写入“最终文本”，各方需要对“最终文本”中每项技术问题和每个细节做出政治决定。欧洲国家希望美能够解除对伊朗制裁，以便让伊朗原油进入国际市场，缓解欧洲能源危机。

　　原油价格昨日虽然迎来了一波反弹，但很明显的可以看见，价格并没有突破关键的阻力位置。日线级别，布林带开口向下，价格在87一线暂时企稳，但昨日价格的反弹并没有破位走出新高点，整体走势还是震荡偏空。4小时，布林带走平，价格在低位形成横盘整理态势，保持87-91区间震荡，日内短线上方90.5-91.5区域阻力不破，价格还有继续走低的风险，操作思路上尽量以反弹高空为主。

Operational strategy:

　　黄金：反弹1788Short nearby, stop loss1795, Objective1760。

　　原油：反弹91Short nearby, stop loss92, Objective88。

Author's message:

The answer to all questions is never unique and unchanging. Whether the market is going up or down, you cannot control it yourself. Only by keeping up with the pulse of the market can you avoid being eliminated. The market cannot always go up or down, and what is certain is that it will always go right. Risk is an objective, inevitable, and under certain conditions, it also has certain regularity, so we should pay more attention to risk control in operation.

This article is provided by Chen Jiazhe. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. The above content is personal advice. Due to the timeliness of online publications, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source of the reprint.