Xiao Yizhou:7.18Today's gold price trend, analysis of the latest trend of gold in the afternoon.

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Xiao Yizhou - The following is for the daygoldcrude oilDaily trend analysis and specific operational strategies

Gold trend analysis:

Monday（7month18日）亚市盘初，现货黄金低位窄幅震荡，目前交投于1712美元附近，上周五美国零售销售数据好于预期，但美联储官员进一步重申7Monthly interest rate hike75个基点，市场对加息100点的预期降温，同时，美元持续上涨之后有较大的获利了结需求，上周五美元回落近0.6%，周一延续跌势，给金价提供了一些支撑。短线来看，美元存在进一步回调需求，有望给金价提供进一步反弹调整的机会，而且俄乌局势依然紧张，存在进一步恶化的可能性，也有望给金价提供支撑。对全球经济衰退的担忧仍然笼罩市场，投资者需要留意中长线避险买盘的支撑情况。周一无重要经济数据公布。本周关注欧元区6monthCPIData, UK6monthCPI数据、欧美国家7monthPMI数据，留意日本央行利率决议和欧洲央行利率决议。

　　本周数据较为清淡，以技术面为主，前面讲过，暂时黄金还是保持空头趋势，没有明显的底部和反转信号，因此，本周交易还是以做空为主，至于能不能破位1700形成进一步的下跌趋势，则要看市场的表现。按照大跌趋势走出来，黄金刷新低点后可见的趋势点在1680，下方再深则不预测。相反，黄金已经在1700之上震荡了几个交易日了，暂时的低位有稳固的表现，随着市场买盘的进入，黄金在1700之上的支撑变强，反弹力度也会随之增加，目前技术面上方可关注日线5，10日均线压制1716，1730，1716之下是极弱，1735之下是弱势，周内如果黄金破位1730则可考虑趋势转变，大涨就即将来临，上方可见1775，1825，1860。这个走势大概可以看周三，周四时间周期的变化。对于日内行情而言，黄金暂时保持趋势空，走势大概是反弹再跌，再震荡。交易关注1716压制空，1716破位，则可反弹看持续上涨空间，交易也可转换回落多，上方关注618阻力位也就是1727Near.

Golden Strategy: Suggestions1718-20Short nearby, stop loss1727, Objective1705-1690；

Analysis of crude oil trend:

　　原油消息面解析：上周六(7month15day)本周美油价格维持震荡下行。美国方面公布的6monthCPI数据意外大幅度超预期，使得市场对美联储大幅升息的预期升温，这不利于油价。另外，本周美国总统拜登开启中东之行，希望敦促中东国家增产，该消息也给油价沉重压力。不过，上周公布的三大原油报告认为，当前市场上供应仍然有限，市场机构纷纷看多原油长期走势。本周投资者要密切关注拜登在中东的访问结果，以及市场对美联储升息前景的炒作。

　　原油技术面分析：从原油盘面走势来看周线上维持在宽幅震荡偏弱的走势中，原油近期的波幅拉得非常大。在日线运行节奏上基本是走出一波大幅下跌之后走一波反弹修复，然后继续下跌在日线上的下跌走势维持得比较好。在日线上目前虽有探底反弹但是延续的力度并不是太好，K线继续承压短周期均线运行。在短线周期上一波拉升横盘震荡之后技术形态已经开始在逐步走弱。日线上，上一个交易日行情先下后上，且收下影线较长的K线，显示下方有一定的支撑。指标上看，行情仍然沿着20日均线下行，行情总体偏强势。综合来看，原油今日操作思路上萧毅舟建议以回踩做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注99.5-100.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below95.0-94.5Frontline support.

Golden Strategy:

　　1Suggestions100关口触及空，损101.5, Objective98Below.

　　2Suggestions95一线多，损93.5Look97upper.

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