Xiao Yizhou:6.1黄金早间最新走势分析及操作策略指导。

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　　goldtechnical analysis

Tuesday(5month31day)Spot gold is under pressure as the US dollar index rebounds significantly to102Pass, stay away from the ones created overnight4month25New low since the beginning of the day101.297。 The hawks of the Federal Reserve continue to speak up, demanding that interest rates be raised at every subsequent meeting within the year50个基点。但美联储激进加息引发的经济衰退风险限制了金价卖压。若有任何迹象显示通胀仍将居高不下，或者表明美国民众薪资持续上升，经济表现坚挺，美联储可能会在7月后维持激进加息策略，因此大举做多黄金并不明智选项。策略师指出，实际利率是支撑金价上涨的关键因素，其他推动金价上涨的因素目前市场也不乏炒作，包括乌克兰战争引发的地缘风险，全球供应链进一步紊乱，加剧通胀并引发经济衰退。分析师发布报告称，在收益率上升之际，金价看跌，“债券市场人气将是判断黄金未来走势的关键。此外要注意的是，欧元区通胀初值和美国咨商会消费者信心指数可能给更广泛市场情绪带来的新线索。”据CFTC的统计数据，投机性金融投资者最近似乎对黄金持更开放的态度，在截至5month24日的一周内，他们的净多头头寸增加了40%, reaching6.1万份。如果事实证明这不仅仅是昙花一现，那么黄金很可能会从这方面获得提振。

　　日线结构上，虽然昨日再收阳，收于20日线上，但是连续两日均带有上影线，预示上涨动能并不强。同时今日开盘后，黄金即出现一波快速回撤至1847一线，这样的走势主要还是受美指突现回弹的影响，按照本周非农数据将公布，很有可能市场借机提前炒作预期，那么黄金短线的回升趋势可能也就会受到影响，甚至就此结束，重回偏弱格局中。短期内黄金下方继续先关注20Daily line1847争夺，下方甚至允许回撤200Daily line1840附近，如果今日回到20日线运行，那么基本就预示短线行情上涨趋势的结束，而回到200日线下，则预示行情将再度不如弱势震荡路线。日内上方则关注5Daily line1852争夺，如果行情都不能回到5日线上，可见市场情绪对于美指回弹，黄金转弱的预期还是很强的。

　　H4周期的震荡表现更加明显，布林收口，均线集中在布林中轨附近，是标准的高估底渣行情，暂时可见的区间范围在1845/1860，日内可围绕此区间做高空低多，由于周初整体偏弱，慢跌走势扩大的话，低位1845破位，下方则看1840。日内短线关注1840低点，下破1840则会走弱看1832-1830，此位是短期临界点，下破看空，不破继续震荡。

Golden Strategy:

Suggestions1842Empty, stop loss1847, Objective1836-1830Break the position to hold;

　　crude oilquotation:

Tuesday(5month31day)，国际油价延续涨势，来到120处受阻回落，创下近期走势新高，因欧盟同意削减从俄罗斯进口的石油。在美欧夏季驾驶需求高峰来临之际，这加剧了人们对本已紧张的供求形势进一步恶化的担忧。欧盟禁令将立即涵盖约2/3(通过海路)从俄罗斯进口的石油，目前尚不清楚如何补偿成员国所需付出的更高成本。

　　原油月线油价中长线遭遇2018year7月高位以来的一条下行趋势线的压力，3月油价曾短暂突破该趋势线，不过最终K线实体回退到趋势线下方。长期趋势线的压力不容小觑，油价可能面临去年4月触底反弹以来最大的压力，后市可能遭遇更大幅度的回调

　　日线震荡上破；MACD向上发散，均线多头排列，KDJ金叉运行，布林线向上倾斜，短线明显偏向多头。形态上来看，油价初步顶破了3month24Daily high point116.64阻力，初步宣告结束了3month10日以来的宽幅震荡行情，油价有望启动新一轮涨势。初步阻力在120整数关口附近，进一步阻力在3month9Daily high point126.84附近，鉴于120整数关口是一个整数关口阻力，仍需提防冲高回落的可能性。行情已经在下方116.64已经转化为初步支撑所在，5The daily moving average support is currently at115.29附近，若油价冲高受阻后回落至该位置下方，则需要提防假突破的可能性，10The daily moving average support is currently at112.85Near.

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