王德诚：下周现货黄金黄金TD期货黄金基本面解读和行情分析

    I haven't written an article for a week because of some things. Through communication with some investment friends this week, I discovered a99%The fatal mistake that all investors make is to only operate in the short term. The author can confidently tell investment friends that any trader who only operates in the short term will definitely lose, and it is basically impossible to make a profit. Only by focusing on medium to long term trading and supplementing it with short-term trading can you have a profitable opportunity. Otherwise, you will find that in the end, all of your principal has become transaction feesfuturesFortunately, the first-hand handling fee is only a few tens of yuan. If you do itgoldforeign exchange一手三百或者六百多的手续费，你每天频繁短线交易的成本太高。长期做交易的投资朋友肯定对一种现象深有体会，那就是盈利三单还抵不上一单的损失，但是你一旦把单子拿成了中长线盈利个几百个点，你就会发现一个中长线的单子的盈利可以抵得上十来个短线单子的损失，这就是纯短线交易的缺陷。所以笔者劝诫各位一定要远离那种每天让你频繁操作短线的老师，一定要调整心态学会把短线单子慢慢拿成中长线单子。

    好了，现在开始分析伦敦金、黄金TD和期货黄金的下周行情走势。　

   基本面利多因素：

　　1.美国当选总统拜登公布1.9A trillion dollar stimulus plan, the first part of a two-step plan; among3500Billion US dollars for local aid, in addition1600亿为疫苗和检测费用。大规模刺激计划的推出将提振黄金的需求。

　　2.美联储主席鲍威尔周四表示，“现在不是讨论退出超宽松货币政策的时候”，并承诺在美联储开始讨论缩减大规模购债计划之前，会提前发出大量通知。宽松货币政策将打压美元，利好黄金。

　　3.美国最新公布的数据显示，至1month9日当周初请失业金人数录得增加96.5万人，增幅为去年3月末以来最大，预期78Ten thousand, the previous value is determined by78.7Revised to 1000078.4万。这显示出随着新冠病例的增加，劳动力市场正持续受挫。疲弱经济数据往往利空美元，利多黄金。

Fundamental bearish factors:

　　1.美元指数上涨逾0.50%Report90.76，本周有望上涨0.7%, for11周来最好单周表现。美元上涨令以美元计价的黄金承压。

　　2.index10年期美国国债收益率在接近10个月高点附近徘徊，上周开始回升至1%以上。长期债券收益率的稳步上升，可能最终削弱对贵金属的部分兴趣。

　　3.美国商务部周五公布，12Retail sales have decreased in the month0.7%，为连续第三个月下降。经济数据显示新冠肺炎疫情对经济的持续影响提振了对避险货币的需求，美元兑一篮子货币周五全线上涨，触及近四周高点。美元上涨令以美元计价的黄金承压。

   Technical analysis:

    伦敦金方面：周五黄金还是走了回落，亚盘依托1845震荡上行，欧盘承压1856回落，美盘断崖式下跌破位日内起涨点1845，起涨点的失守意味着黄金多头在尾盘不可能再有所作为。

　　凌晨，黄金价格一度下探至1823，尽管收盘之前出现过反弹，但已经无力回天，日线最终报收大阴，多头反击任重而道远。日线图看，本周黄金走了阴阳循环也走了震荡，震荡的区间在1863-16，1816位置没有在周五收盘时段跌破，这对于春节前多头反击无疑是最好的消息。

　 because1863-16区间不破，意味着黄金此刻依然是大跌之后的盘整状态，既然是盘整，那么有可能向上破位1863，也有可能向下破位1816，我们只需要静待方向出来，方向出来之后做破位跟踪即可，破位1863回调做多，跌破1816反抽做空，这属于大方向的思路。在1863-16区间破位之前，希望大家尽可能的去观望，没有合适机会千万不要盲目开仓，因为震荡行情是最难操作的行情，方向不明节奏便不好把握，只有尽可能的观望才能立于不败之地。

　　以上，是笔者王德诚对黄金本周在1863-16区间震荡的一点粗浅看法，希望在下周整体的交易过程中能够对大家起到一点帮助。

  goldTD方面走势跟随伦敦金，下周重点关注377.2一线附近的得失，实破就大趋势转空，后市操作转高空为主，不破则这轮回调结束，后市依旧看涨破新高。

   期货黄金方面走势也是跟随伦敦金，对于沪金主力合约，重点关注380一线的得失，破与不破走势分析参考黄金TD。

  

    写在文末：做交易我一直在强调理性投资，何为理性投资？笔者一直认为理性投资的第一点就是要认识到投资理财的风险性，不管你是做黄金Foreign exchange transactions还是期货交易，他都有很大的风险，所以你们一定不要投入太多资金去玩这东西，炒外汇或者炒期货没那么好赚钱，特别是你们在什么都不懂得情况下，就更不要投入太多钱去交易。我看见有些业务员的文章里今天晒单盈利几千美金，明天翻倍多少资金,I feel embarrassed when I look at it myself. A simulated transaction created by a simulated account is deceiving people. It's not like making so much money when it comes to trading. If it were to make so much money, wouldn't it be like becoming a multimillionaire long ago? Why bother writing articles here. So all investment friends must remain rational, open their eyes to distinguish between truth and falsehood, and use a small amount of funds to trade. Do not let investment affect your normal family operation, let alone be forced to increase funds and continuously lose money when the position is about to explode.

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。