Wang Decheng:28日铁矿橡胶焦煤焦炭原油期货基本面和行情分析

     

    The most important point I have always emphasized in investment and financial management is rationality. What is rationality? The first point of rationality is not to invest too much money in playing this thing. The author suggests not to invest more than your family's annual income50%，绝对不要把全部或者大部分资金拿来玩这东西，特别是女同志。理性的第二点就是一定要认识到投资的风险性，投资有风险，二八定律永远存在，不要听一些业务员瞎忽悠怎么怎么好赚钱，做foreign exchangeperhapsfutures跟做股票一样，永远都是七成人亏损一层人保本两层人盈利，你要充分认识到这行没那么好赚钱，不要指望靠他去发财致富。你如果选择做投资，就一定要放平心态去把他当作一种娱乐消遣去对待，一定不要让投资理财影响你的正常的家庭运转。要是盈利了那就恭喜你，要是亏损了也不影响正常生活。

    好了，接下来我们开始分析现货主要期货产品的下周的行情走势。

   铁矿：

     技术面：铁矿2105合约周五先抑后扬中阳线报收1063(Last day's price)1036），行情结束单边涨势，然而快速回调一步到位，能否转弱还需观察。

     铁矿石普氏指数166.5，现货青岛港PB粉1116，港口库存12404.45万吨，钢厂铁矿石库存可用天数27天。钢厂开工需求高位回落，受制于季节性和利润不佳，炉料库存充裕，钢厂矿石库存健康。外矿上半年供给受限，后期复产修复，供给2021仍有望转暖，港口库存当前低位已逐渐开启回升。矿石高低品级价差回落，钢厂红利出净高品代替焦炭优势渐弱，废钢对矿石亦有替代作用。外盘矿石回升，现货成交回暖有限，基差修复转负。全球终端需求进一步向上打压，美国粗钢产量锐减，后期铁矿石供需环境仍不乐观。人民币中长期仍存在贬值预期但短线升值，海运进口成本延续低位。

   橡胶；

     今日橡胶小区间波动200Multiple point reporting14180小阴线行情，乘用车生产227.8Year-on-year growth of 10000 vehicles8.0%； retail208.1Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth8.0%, achieving continuous5Months8%The highest growth rate in the past two years is around.1-11Monthly cumulative retail growth rate-8.3%, compared to1-10Monthly cumulative growth rate-10.2%promote2个百分点，体现行业的稳步回暖态势。此外11Monthly retail of new energy vehicles16.9Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year increase9.7Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth rate136.5%, penetration rate of passenger car retail market8.0%Becoming the core driving force for the growth of passenger car retail.

      rubber2105合约，橡胶破位大跳水洗盘阶段行情，后期有望延续剧烈波动走势，王德诚建议橡胶冲高14280-14390区间分批进场空单策略，短线注意14090and14010止盈保护，中长线带好利润保护持有放大利润。

   

   

    焦炭焦煤：

　  焦炭增仓2.11万手，上涨96.5元或3.50%Report2851element/吨；焦煤增仓1.03万手，上涨63元或3.87%Report1689element/吨；动力煤增仓0.67万手，上涨20元或2.99%Report688.4element/Tons.

　　焦煤今日增仓的情况下重返强势上涨的形态，期价报收大阳线，在经历了3个交易日的调整之后再次拉升。所谓强者恒强，期价并没有出现转弱的信号，回踩10日均线附近确认支撑有效之后受到资金推动继续保持强势，顺势操作为主。焦炭同样是增仓的情况下也出现了强势上涨的行情，目前报收2连阳的情况下再次逼近前期高点，新的一周突破的概率较大，保持多头思路，新高之后还有上涨空间。切勿摸顶做空。

　　郑煤今日增仓的情况下也出现了止跌之后的强势反弹行情，期价报收大阳线，收盘站上日均线的支撑。笔者建议投资者保持偏多的思路，681之上积极参与多单，如若后市继续增仓的话，那么还有上涨空间，期价重返700整数关口的概率大增。

     crude oil（2102）；

　   原油减仓0.22万手，上涨2.4元或0.78%Report309.6element/Bucket.

　   INE原油今日减仓的情况下保持强势反弹的节奏，期价报收2连阳。接下来关注日线能否突破311.5附近的平台压力位，展开调走之后的第二波上涨行情。目前外盘因圣诞节休市，那么国内能否迎来补涨行情值得期待，建议布局条件单，以免错过最佳进场点。

   

     Written at the end of the article: Friends who work in futures know that futures are traded on a time share basis, at night11The market will stop at midnight, and traders don't have to stay up late to watch the market. That's really tiring. For doinggold原油的交易者，笔者也一直强调一种投资状态：严格轻仓操作，严格带上止损，严格减少操作，不要投太多资金交易，把交易当做一种消遣，每天输点赢点也无所谓，不影响正常的家庭运转，这样任凭风吹浪打，你也可以胜似闲庭信步，哪还需要熬更守夜的去看盘分析行情，行情一旦波动较大就心惊肉跳的，别到时候账户没盈利反倒把身体搞坏了。

   

     Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat:wdckdj。