Wang Decheng:16Japanese crude oilPTA豆粕期货基本面分析

   

                    Wang Decheng:16daycrude oilPTASoybean mealfuturesFundamental analysis

   Before writing the market analysis, let me talk about the matter of hedging: Today I want to talk about a very important point, and I hope all investment friends can listen to it. Everyone must bring a stop loss when placing orders, and never lock up positions. Essentially, locking up positions is a form of denying one's misjudgment of the market. On the surface, he appears to have kept your position safe, but in reality, he has taken up your funds and risk rate. After locking the position, he becomes hesitant when it comes to placing orders. Many people are reluctant to stop losses and like to lock up their positions. They always think that if the market rises, they will make a profit by taking more orders and can take out more orders, Then when the market falls, I will take out short orders. This way, not only can I make a profit, but I can also solve the problem at the same time, killing two birds with one stone. This is a beautiful idea, but in reality, it is often not like that. When the market really rises, they won't dare to level their long positions. They are afraid that if their long positions are tied, the market will continue to rise. This way, the short positions will become deeper and deeper, so they have to bear it all the time. In the end, they will waste overnight fees for nothing until their positions are liquidated. So, never lock up your position, always bring a stop loss. Otherwise, it will only be a repeat of the bloody failures of previous investors.

Crude oil:

　　需求方面，德国总理默克尔警告称，德国将在下个月面临新冠疫情的新高峰，1Month and2月将是特别艰难的两个月，这一表述令1月初延长封锁时间的可能性升高。IEA月报数据显示，由于重新实施封锁措施，欧洲的需求下滑，预计2020年第四季度石油需求将因新一轮封锁而同比下降62010000 barrels/日，同时将2021年石油需求增幅下调至超过1010000 barrels/Day, expected2021Annual oil demand will increase57010000 barrels/日。但另一方面，受汽车生产提振，美国11月制造业产出增幅高于预期，但未来几个月动能可能放缓，因再度爆发的新冠疫情迫使工人留在家中，工厂暂时关闭。供给方面，由于新冠病毒在世界部分地区肆虐，能源需求仍然脆弱，欧佩克轮值主席、阿尔及利亚能源部长阿塔尔表示，无法保证欧佩克及其盟友在4月前将原油产量提高20010000 barrels/日，尽管本月早些时候已达成逐步达到这一水平的协议。库存方面，API报告显示，美国上周原油库存增加20010000 barrels to4.95亿桶，上周原油进口减少6.810000 barrels/Day.IEAThe monthly report shows that,10月份经合组织原油库存减少553010000 barrels to31.29亿桶，比5年均值水平高出1.83Billion barrels.

　　策略：多国批准辉瑞疫苗的使用，提振原油需求预期，但英国伦敦进入三级疫情警戒、德国可能延长限制措施时间，OPE、EIA、IEA连续下调原油需求预期，需求仍然面临较大不确定性。原油需求仍然脆弱，原油需求增幅将仅为50万桶，与OPEC+next year1月份增产的幅度相同,产油国呼吁停止增产行动。原油现实需求疲软，叠加美国库存增加，限制油价涨幅，但市场对疫苗后行情有较大期望，油价长期趋势依旧以涨势为主。

　PTA：

　　供应方面来看，福海创450万吨装置计划12month17日停车；疆中泰10month3日进入停车，原重启计划延迟至20日；珠海BP11010000 tons12month12日检修，PTA开工下降，短期供应或将缩窄。需求端来看，江浙地区聚酯市场盘整，需求清淡。其中，涤纶长丝产销47.80%，涤纶短纤产销39.82%，聚酯切片产销28.72%。总体来看成本端仍有一定支撑，PTA期货仓单数量持续上升分散PTA现货的流通性过剩压力，从后市供需来看，供需偏累库，PTA市场或承压。周末BP检修，福海创计划检修，新疆中泰重启推迟，PTA检修较为集中，但后期供应端开机负荷维持高位，需求端季节性走低，供需矛盾较为突出，后市需要关注供应端的装置检修及需求端的下滑节点。

　　策略：综合来看，原油市场走势偏强，PTA成本有支撑；但原油后市难以持续上冲，PTA反弹空间受限。供应端或有收缩，但需求端目前仍维持高位，整体供需累库幅度短期收窄，12月下旬之后再度加大累库，持续到春节前后。供需或影响市场反弹力度，关注下游需求动态。

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粕类：

　　豆粕期货价格震荡，豆粕成交减少，总成交8.82万吨。豆油期货价格下跌，豆油成交清淡。

　　12月开始进入巴西大豆关键生长期，此间降雨充足程度将影响大豆单产，因此未来巴西天气仍是市场关注焦点。在全球大豆库存消费比偏低的情况下，任何产量的调减都可能进一步加剧供需紧张的局面。上周国内豆粕库存回升。推算当周豆粕表观消费量在150万吨左右，相对于往年同期仍处在较高的水平。另外从季节性来看，油粕比一般在年末触及高点，在上半年呈现偏弱走势。因此若国内豆粕消费持续旺盛，未来油粕比仍有回落的可能，这将给DCE豆粕价格上涨打开空间。CBOT大豆1月合约价格关注1135cent/蒲式耳附近支撑，DCESoybean mealM2105合约关注及3050reach3100element/吨附近支撑。

　　逻辑和观点：巴西干旱天气导致大豆减产对价格的利多基础目前尚不稳固，但未来仍有减产的可能，CBOT大豆价格仍有可能因此走高。首选策略为以3050为止损做多M2105合约。

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat:wdc4561。