Golden Release Liang Qiandong8.2/8.3黄金原油开盘走势分析及日内交易策略

Profitability is everyone's dream, but why do most people do things that run counter to profitability every day. It is impossible for every transaction to determine the world; It is also impossible for every failure to cause physical and mental damage. But it's getting further and further away from success, but getting closer and closer to failure because many times it stops success but continues failure. Review the incorrect concepts and methods in daily operations, and find out how many of them are the directions that have been adhered to before. Many people are complaining, but every day they continue to do foolish things such as chasing orders, resisting orders, locking positions, relocating positions, changing positions at will, frequent trading, randomly cutting meat, increasing positions against the trend, chasing gains and losses, and so on. If you have made all the above mistakes and do not repent, then you are not suitable for trading at all. Complaining cannot solve problems, resisting orders cannot change direction, and frequent trading only leads to missed profits and increases the probability of mistakes. If the direction is wrong, resistance cannot be carried, and successful individuals do not follow the usual path. Only after the phoenix is reborn from the ashes can success be more solid and lasting.
　　
Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning strategies. Do not attempt to capture all fluctuations, nor expect to judge every segment of the market correctly.
　
　　goldMessage surface:
　　
　　7The U.S. Dollar Index fell in July4.4%，为十年来最大单月跌幅，盘中最低触及92.53, for2018year5月以来新低；欧元和英镑创出十年来最大月度涨幅，并且今年以来主要货币兑美元首次月线全线上涨。美国国债收益率下跌、实际收益率接近历史低点、美国二季度GDP创记录最大降幅、美国对新冠疫情持续恶化且应对相比欧洲令人失望，美国总统考虑推迟美国大选，都令美元承压明显。
　　
　　美联储主席鲍威尔7month29日表示，美国新病例激增，以及旨在遏制病毒传播的限制措施，已经开始拖累经济复苏。消费者明显减少消费，召回暂时解雇工人的速度明显放缓，尤其是小企业。鲍威尔的发言证实了许多经济学家和其他分析师近几周来所持的观点，即新病例在南部和西南部多州呈爆炸式增长，令经济快速复苏的希望变得渺茫，这是美元指数持续下跌的原因之一。
　　
Gold technology:
　　
　　黄金周五亚盘开盘直接暴走，连阳上涨最高给到了前高位置1982附近出现了承压，引爆了黄金多投情绪，随后欧美盘回撤中，金价多投都守住了布林带中轨支撑出现震荡走高，同时我们也是给出了回撤多单布局，获利非常稳健且可观，日线收线大阳线，高价破前高价，低价回撤没有破前低价格，布林带开口向上，金价继续运行在上轨上方，黄金触及1981位置震荡运行了四个交易日，趋势指标金叉继续向上发散中，整体表现多头强势中。如图所示，黄金运行在上升趋势线上方，向上发散，同时趋势指标在黄金突破1958水平位置后出现了金叉向上，若金价守住该位置支撑金叉有望出现延续。
　　
　　因为周线级别再次收大阳线，表现了在本周黄金多投占据主动，趋势可能出现延续，下周我们首先选择顺势看待行情，看涨黄金思路不变，就黄金支撑位首先关注1959dollar/盎司位置，然后就会考验1951水平，若下破就需要考验多头趋势最后关卡1930美元水平。上方阻力位关注1982水平，进一步上破就需要考验1999美元。综合来看梁乾东认为，下周交易上重点关注黄金开盘价格波动，高开或者低开概率，操作建议上考虑回撤布局多单为主，上方关注1983-1999USD resistance, follow below1959-1930USD support.
　　
　　crude oilMessage surface:
　　
　　7In January, the international oil price basically maintained a narrow fluctuation trend, with relatively small overall fluctuations and insufficient amplitude throughout the month10%，极为罕见。一方面，美国、巴西、印度等国的新冠疫情大幅恶化，令市场担忧需求前景，OPEC+decision8Starting from January, the scale of production reduction will be reduced, putting pressure on oil prices; On the other hand, some economic data shows that the global economy has already passed its worst period, and the United States5The record reduction in crude oil production in January and the sharp drop in the US dollar have hit a new low in over two years, providing support for oil prices.7月份，美国原油futures震荡于38.54-42.51Region, reporting40.43dollar/Barrel, with a monthly increase of1.53%； Brent crude oil41.03-44.89Regional fluctuations, reported43.71dollar/Barrel, month line last week approximately5%。 The cumulative fluctuation amplitude of both oils is less than4USD. Although the increase was not significant, US crude oil continued to rise for the third consecutive month, while Brent crude oil rose for the fourth consecutive month.
　　
　　8月份全球新冠疫情的发展令人令人担忧，美国、巴西、印度的确诊人数和死亡人数持续增加，单日新增确诊人数和单日死亡人数屡次刷新记录，日本、澳大利亚、韩国等国出现了第二轮新冠疫情的明显迹象，都暗示全球经济在未来一段时间内很难大幅增长，此前的经济快速复苏预期基本消失。原油的需求前景也明显恶化，这明显削弱了油价的上涨动能。
　　
Technical aspects of crude oil:
　　
　　原油周五高开后出现低走，亚盘时段回撤后在40.5位置出现承压，维持区间震荡，美盘时段出现了空头延续，下跌加速给到39.6位置得到支撑，尾盘时段再次反弹收复部分失地，表现了原油下方成在支撑。周线级别收线结束了连阳格局，出现收阴，进一步表现了多头趋势的调整，若后期继续向下可能会进一步考验周线级别支撑。在日线级别，布林带收口向右走平，油价下破前期三角整理的趋势线，但是收盘留有下影线，严格意义上讲只能算是虚破，若后市出现向上突破，油价还是有继续上涨的概率。如图所示，油价在周四下跌后运行在下降趋势线下方，同时也是在前期震荡箱体支撑位38.7位置得到支撑。综合来看梁乾东认为，油价处于震荡格局中，下周重点关注周一开盘情况，交易上继续维持高空低多策略对待，上方关注40.9-41.2美元支撑，下方关注39.6-39.0USD support.
　　
　　【新手该如何正确投资黄金、原油】
　　
　　1Control emotions - Investors must be calm and control their emotions. They must calmly respond to sudden changes in the market, otherwise they will miss out on opportunities due to indecision. It is best to be prepared to deal with various possibilities before entering the market, so that when encountering sudden changes in the market, one may not feel too surprised and at a loss.
　　
　　2Starting with small-scale trading - For beginners in the market, it is necessary to start with small-scale trading, gradually grasp trading patterns and accumulate experience, and then gradually increase positions.
　　
　　3Avoid being eager for quick success and instant benefit - there should be no desire for quick success and instant benefit in transactions. Investors should not enter the market based on their subjective desires in trading. Successful investors generally strictly separate their emotions from trading activities, and bear heavier risks based on the opposite market trend and personal wishes.
　　
　　4Be prepared to accept failure at any time - Gold investment carries risks, and trading failure is inevitable throughout the entire transaction. It is also an important way for investors to gradually learn from and accumulate experience. When faced with investment failure, only by carefully summarizing can investors gradually improve their investment ability, avoid risks, and strive for profitability.
　　
　　5Better miss than make mistakes - opportunities are always present, and seizing them requires a pair of bright eyes rather than quietly waiting for an empty opportunity.
　　
　　6Develop investment plans that are suitable for oneself - life requires planning, investment requires planning, and investment is not an overnight process. Only by strictly executing can one profit from it. So how to become a profiteer in the gold investment market is crucial.
　　　　结语：投资的首要原则是规避风险，如果不能规避风险，那么赚再多的钱，有一天都会还回去，任何一个人的成功都有其方法，而投资交易也必有其原则，积少成多、以小搏大是交易的根本。而有很多人却忘记了初衷，把利益看在眼前，却把风险挂在墙上，熟不知在市场当中，个人是多少的脆弱，多么的渺小，若不懂的规避风险，就像航行在大海的一只小船，随时会被风浪打翻。止损是我们常说的话题，但却永远有人触碰红线，逆势是死亡的加速，但却永远有人用尽毕生的信念死扛到底，当功亏一篑、覆水难收之时，很多人接受不了爆仓的结果和绝望的处境，但却仍然想不起当初不设止损。错误随时都会发生，而诱惑无处不在，无规矩不成方圆，这个规矩就是红线，这个规矩就是隐形的陷阱，如果一个交易者会打开自己的交易记录并找出使自己亏损的交易，并总结出原因，说明他离盈利已经很近了。