Dawn is approaching, and the worst of the crude oil market has come to an end?

Some people say that next year iscrude oilIn the year of the bull market.


Just two weeks after the "historical event" that marked the first negative drop in crude oil, the crude oil treasure event that caused countless people to lose their homes has only come to an end today. Crude oil has long risen from the abyss of continuous decline, and the scenery has skyrocketed.


What kind of inflation method? Up for five consecutive days, with a total increase of nearly50%. The May Day holiday has come to a successful end, and the soaring journey of the United States and the United States continues,WTIcrude oil6monthfuturesA one-time increase in contract23%。Even events such as the Texas Railroad Commission's rejection of the oil production reduction meeting in the United States cannot hinder the recovery of oil prices.


After all, in the face of multiple news such as a gradual economic restart and a reduction in crude oil production, international oil prices are like a wild horse running wild.


As "oil analyst" Trump said, once the US economy restarts and recovers, oil demand will immediately recover, and the rise in oil prices will follow closely. After all, no one understands oil better than Trump.


ExxonMobil and Chevron, the top two oil companies in the United States, claim to reduce production every day this quarter40Ten thousand barrels of oil. US energy companies are continuing to reduce the number of oil drilling platforms and have continued to do so7Week. Meanwhile, cities in the United States and around the world are gradually lifting their economic lockdowns,OPEC+A new round of production reduction will be implemented on May Day.


Under the overwhelming negative news, there are faint signs of a crude oil bull market. The sharp decline in investment in the oil industry is in a difficult situation, rather than the dual decline in oil production and natural oil field production in OPEC countries. Once these problems persist for a long time, igniting the crude oil market and causing a surge in oil prices is only a matter of time.


Faced with a decline in oil production and a partial rebound in crude oil demand, Goldman Sachs has raised its expectations for next year's oil prices. Goldman Sachs estimates2020Brent crude oil prices will reach35.77dollar/Barrel,2021Year is55.63dollar/Barrel, expected oil price to be2021Return to mid cycle level in the second half of the year.


Global fund managers have been buying derivative contracts related to crude oil for five consecutive weeks, and they are betting that the worst-case scenario in the crude oil market is over and dawn is approaching.

△ witRecent upward trend chart, sourceGKFXPrime

Of course, some people also believe that the rebound in oil prices is just a flash in the pan, and the excess supply in the market still exceeds the planned scale of production reduction. The view that oil prices are still vulnerable to new setbacks is not uncommon.


Senior crude oil traderAndyhallBelieving that,wtiIt is not impossible for crude oil prices to return to negative prices in the near futureVType rebound will not come either. The measures to save the oil market, such as halting oil production, reducing the number of oil drilling wells, and reducing investment in the crude oil industry, are only temporary solutions rather than fundamental solutions. The excess capacity has never disappeared and can be quickly restored.


And in the early hours of Wednesday Beijing time, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced that in order to facilitate delivery, the New York Mercantile Exchange's light and low sulfur crude oil andWTIHouston crude oil futures contracts can be traded and settled at negative prices.


GKFXPrimePerspective


Regarding whether crude oil will continue to rise, the editor also brings to everyoneGKFXPrimeRelevant opinions of analysts.

Opinion 1: The demand for crude oil has increased, and oil prices continue to rise.

The United States is wavering between protecting the economy and protecting people's lives, and ultimately capitalism is pouring into the economy, which is a strong shot for crude oil. After the global economy "forcibly recovers," demand for crude oil will increase. Secondly,5month1Start of DayOPEC+And American oil companies will start a two-month period100010000 barrels/Japan's production reduction action will also help drive up oil prices.

Opinion 2: Trading crude oil still requires determination。

After the crude oil chart closed last month, it formed a long shadow line, which is often a signal of trend reversal in the candle chart principle. But personally, I believe that the previous statistics of crude oil bottoming out are basically necessary3-4The candle chart time is six months, so trading crude oil not only requires good judgment, but also determination.

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