MEXGROUP:Daily technical report(2020-3-16)

goldOn the one hand, in the current situation where global liquidity is almost depleted, hedging and cannot be fully reflected in the gold market; Traders need to recognize that the scenario of comprehensive easing by major central banks around the world and synchronous decline in gold may continue2008It will happen again after the year. Of course, in the short term, as the emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this morning may bring temporary relief to the liquidity contraction, gold and treasury bond may take the opportunity to rebound due to yield, but after that, gold still has a greater probability of facing a new round of selling
crude oilAs of now, there are already140Multiple countries and regions are facing the threat of pneumonia, resulting in the most severe contraction in crude oil demand in history. Therefore, the bearish trend of oil prices has almost become a foregone conclusion; In the short term, the significant filling of US strategic reserve crude oil inventories provides some support for oil prices, but overall, it may be of no help,28The low point of the US dollar may fall again soon.
In the foreign exchange market, the Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates this morning100Basis points and additional implementation7000The $100 million bond purchase plan will replace the Fed's interest rate decision originally scheduled for Thursday this week. In the short term, market liquidity will be eased, and there may be a temporary easing of the US dollar buying frenzy caused by the "money shortage". However, this is likely to fundamentally reverse the situation without laws and regulations, and the US dollar will still face forced strength in the future; Non US currencies will continue to face pressure in the context of a strengthening US dollar, but in the short term, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may limit the rise of the US index, posing a risk of short-term rebound for non US currencies.
MEXviewpoint
XAUUSD(gold)







Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1523 brace2: 1505
resistance1 : 1580 resistance2: 1605
Under the contradictory impact of liquidity scarcity and panic, the overall gold price is expected to maintain a dramatic shock pattern, but in the short term, it will be affected by the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut100Basis points and7000The $100 million expansion of the balance sheet will provide liquidity assistance in a relatively short period of time and stimulate gold buying.
Technically4The hour level was formed last Friday5The waves are falling, and there is currently an openingABCThe possibility of a rebound trend,ASegment rebound suppression point or at the dividing line38.2%Nearby (currently almost arrived),BSegment support or in the extension line61.8%，CSegmental rebound temporarily focuses on segmentation lines50%。
USOUSD(Meiyou)futures）







Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 31.0 brace2 : 28.0
resistance1：38.8 resistance2：44.0
Affected by the global spread of the pneumonia epidemic, both supply and demand are facing common pressure, and short-term factors include the oil price war and the United StatesSPRThe contradiction between inventory filling has also made oil prices anxious, maintaining the overall view that oil prices are volatile but weak.
Technically, traders can use spatial measurement structures as a reference for resistance support, and their current focus is on31The US dollar, but if it officially falls below, it will face retesting28The US dollar may even continue to face downside risks.
EURUSD (EUR/USD)







Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1.1050
resistance1：1.1326
The depletion of monetary tools by the European Central Bank, combined with liquidity shortages or subsequent disasters, continues to push the US dollar, putting overall pressure on the euro; However, this morning's emergency and significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may cause a short-term decline in the US dollar and a rebound in the euro.
Technically, the euro is falling to4Hour level rise segment61.8%Position support, the demand for rebounding and repairing the downward trend, provided that1.1050Can be sustained, rebound suppresses attention, blue segmentation line61.8%Location.
GBPUSD(GBP to USD)







Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：1.2260
resistance1: 1.2480 resistance2:1.2620
The short-term decline in the US dollar caused by the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut may hinder the rebound of the pound, but if the UK's "universal immunization plan" cannot be reversed, the pound may enter a trend of no return.
Technically, the pound has the possibility of rebounding and being suppressed by the upper channel line after falling below the channel structure, with a clear upper pressure on the segmentation line38.2%Nearby, after a short period of time, we still need to return to the main idea of high altitude.
USDJPY(USD to JPY)







Data source:MEX Markets
brace1:103.9 brace2：102.7
resistance1:108.0
The global shortage of the US dollar will continue to boost the overall US dollar, and the Bank of Japan's emergency policy meeting today may also release easing measures and put the yen at risk of falling; But at this stage, the Federal Reserve's emergency easing will cause non US currencies to face a rebound in the short term.
Technically, the US and Japan have already conducted rebound tests last Friday4The previous period of decline in the hourly level61.8%Location and signs of pressure, currently testing downward rebound segment segmentation line61.8%The demand for, and this point is in the early rebound period23.6%Point overlap. The support is relatively obvious, and short-term bears focus on this position, and may stabilize and rebound in the future.
AUDUSD(AUD to USD)







Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 0.6100 brace2 : 0.6000
resistance1：0.6330 resistance2 : 0.6400
At present, commodity currencies are still in a weak overall pattern under the drag of the epidemic, but the huge interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may bring a short-term rebound to the Australian dollar.
Technically, prices are falling below2018year9month30After the trend line supports it, this position is converted into suppression, combined with the Fibonacci segmentation line50%Structural repression allows traders to maintain a high-altitude strategy after a short-term rebound. Let's take a look below2008Annual low point.
NZDUSD(NZD to USD)







Data source:MEX Markets
resistance1 : 0.6160 resistance2:0.6270
brace2 : 0.5980
At present, commodity currencies are still in a weak overall pattern under the drag of the epidemic, but the huge interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may bring a short-term rebound to the New Zealand dollar.
Technically, the New York dollar jumped to the expansion line this morning61.8%The rebound in position indicates that there are signs of completion in the previous downward trend, and the next stage may enter a rebound correction phase. The overall trend will be followed up with a segmentation line suppression and risk will be strictly controlled in a short-term manner.
USDCAD(USD to CAD)







Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1.3690
resistance2：1.3992
The decline in crude oil and the easing measures of the Bank of Canada have put the Canadian dollar in an overall weak state; However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this morning may cause the Canadian dollar to face a short-term rebound.
Technically, the expansion line of the upward trend of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar this year200%Under pressure, the market is facing a short-term decline in demand, with clear support below the blue dividing line38.2%Near.
USDCHF(USD to Swiss Franc)







Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.9340 brace2 : 0.9188
resistance1：0.9595
Due to the emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve this morning, the US dollar index has been under downward pressure, leading to short-term strengthening of non US currencies; But the pursuit of the US dollar due to market liquidity may continue to drive up the US dollar in the future.
Technically, the US dollar fell against the Swiss franc before rebounding to this point61.8%Near the location, there is pressure, and there is a demand for rebound force in the short term. The support below is clearly in the rebound section61.8%Nearby, short bearers pay attention to this target and monitor the stabilization of this location in the future.
HK50(Hong Kong Hang Seng Index)







Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：22716
resistance1：24785 resistance2 : 26025
This morning, the Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates100At the same time, the People's Bank of China has announced a targeted reserve requirement reduction starting from today. The easing measures of major central banks around the world may cause a certain rebound in the stock market in the short term, and Hong Kong stocks will also be boosted.
The technical price ranges from1month20The decline since the beginning of the day is already expanding the line161.8%The position is temporarily supported, and the price may face a volatile recovery trend after a short-term stop in decline. The market rebound test expansion line can be viewed with caution during the day100%The pressure.
Focus on financial information/event
Note: ★ represents importance
09：30 Released by the National Bureau of Statistics70Monthly Report on Residential Sales Prices in Major and Medium sized Cities ★★★★
10：00 China2Annual rate of industrial added value above monthly scale ★★★★
20：30 U.S.A3New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month ★★★★
Within the day Emergency Policy Meeting of the Bank of Japan ★★★★