Zhihao Dianjin:3.6Gold bulls are coming strong, and analysis and operation of gold and crude oil in the evening

Friday spot goodsgoldContinuously brushing the high for over a week to1676.65The US dollar, coupled with concerns over public health events, saw the US Treasury yield continue to hit a historic low. On Thursday, due to concerns over public health issues, the top three US stocksstock market indexBoth have fallen by more than3%At the same time, US bond yields continue to decline, and the market is concerned about the Federal Reserve3The bet on a monthly interest rate cut has been raised100%The US dollar index continued to hit a two month low. Affected by this, gold surged nearly40US dollars. The market has reached a consensus that the global economy may need a longer recovery time, which will continue to drive capital inflows into gold in the short term. According to data from the World Gold Council,2Monthly goldETFThe total value of holdings has reached a historic high and is expected to further increase. Pay attention to non farm payroll data within the day. The job market is currently an important support for the US economy, and if the data falls short of expectations, it will strengthen the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has been speaking intensively within the day, and the market will also look for clues from its speeches.
　　
Beijing Time3month6Day and evening21:30, will welcome the United States2Monthly non farm employment data. expect2Non farm employment will increase in the month17.5The growth rate is expected to be lower than last month, but it still reflects moderate growth in the labor market; The unemployment rate is expected to remain at3.6%unchanged,1The monthly average hourly wage is expected to increase year-on-year3%. Based on current market expectations, non-agricultural data is expected to be mixed, and the market will look for clues from sub data, including changes in manufacturing employment and population. If there is more data indicating that the US employment market is still strong, it is expected to provide support for the US dollar.
　　
So what do you think of non farm workers tonight? For this non-agricultural project, the expected market value is17.5Ten thousand people, which means that in order to be positive for the US dollar and negative for gold, the disclosed value must exceed market expectations17.5Ten thousand people. As for the current economic situation in the United States, although it is facing signs of slowing down due to the impact of the epidemic and influenza, it is still uncertain whether the situation will continueADPBased on the data release, currently, the employment situation in the United States is still stable. At present, the expected value of non-agricultural products is relatively low, which means that there is still a high probability that this non-agricultural product will face a positive impact on the US dollar and a negative impact on gold. This also indicates that gold may face certain constraints. Of course, if the announced value of non farm payroll is lower than the market's expected value, it undoubtedly indicates a downturn in US employment and the US economy, which is relatively negative for the US dollar and positive for gold. Once the data is released to be positive for gold, the bullish momentum of gold will further increase, which also means that gold will experience further gains at present. Please pay close attention to the actual data release situation.
　　
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　　3.6Analysis of gold market trend:
　　
Technically speaking, gold consolidated and closed strong yesterday, but after two trading days of consolidation, it held on1630Above, yesterday's breakthrough1653After pressing the dot, open the up space. Continuing the strong recovery trend at the beginning of the week, we revisited the previous high point and the daily chart's bullish line closed full. Today marks the end of the weekly work. At present, the short-term display of bulls remains strong, breaking through1663After the suppression, the suppression broke the trend line. In the short term, the Asian and European markets will continue this strong upward trend. Try not to chase orders after hitting a high in the US market, as this rapid rise in price exploration can easily be accompanied by a fall in price if the correction is not in place. Relying on the first step of the Asian and European stock market rebound1663Make breakthroughs in support points and take advantage of the trend in the short term.
　　
Short line4After sorting and accumulating momentum at the beginning of the week, the hour completed a breakthrough in pressure recovery, breaking through range fluctuations and returning to a strong upward trend. However, is this wave of rise continuing to extend long? It is still difficult to determine whether it will be a second exploration. The transformation of form involves walking and observing at the same time, in a preliminary sense. The short term is temporarily too much.4Hour continuous yang pulling upwards. Short term backpedaling can be done more first, and once the volume is increased, try not to chase. Today's support is on1666-1663At. Step back and look again first. If there is a direct strong breakthrough1690At high points, try not to chase orders at high levels. Beware of the risk of rapid rise and fall. At that time, we will combine the pattern during the trading session to see if we can arrange short positions. The sustainability of this upward trend is still an issue. It is not ruled out that there is a possibility of having a double top. Overall, in terms of short-term operation strategy today, Zhihao Dianjin's personal suggestion is to focus on a pullback to buy long, supplemented by a rebound to short, with a focus on short-term operations above1648-1652Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1626-1630Frontline support.
　　
　　3.6Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:
　　
Empty order strategy:
　　
Gold rebound1685-1688Short (buy down) two tenths of a position nearby, stop loss4Points, target1675-1670Nearby. Break the position to see1666frontline;
　　
Multiple order strategy:
　　
Gold Callback1660-1663Nearby long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss4Points, target1675-1680Nearby, break down and take a look1685frontline;
　　
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　　3.6crude oilFundamental and technical analysis:
　　
United StatesWTI 4Monthly crude oilfuturesElectronic disk prices Thursday(3month5day)Closing down0.77USD, decline1.65%Oil prices fell on Thursday as there were no signs of a slowdown in health incidents, intensifying concerns about the global economy and prompting investors to sell more high-risk assets such as stocks and crude oil, shifting funds towards safe haven assets. So far, Russia has stated that it will support extending existing production reduction plans instead of increasing production reduction efforts. Sudden public health emergencies exacerbate concerns about energy demand, while investors are concerned aboutOPEC+Achieve daily production reduction150Ten thousand barrels expressed suspicion, Brent crude oil fell below for the first time in over two years50USD.OPECproposalOPEC+At Friday's meeting, the current production reduction agreement will be extended until the end of this year, and it is recommended to6Reduce production every day before the end of the month150Ten thousand barrels, currently the key still lies in Russia. If Russia does not agree to this production reduction proposal, the oil market will be oversupplied. In this situation, oil prices will find it difficult to build a bottom and will plummet significantly on the basis of the current level.
　　
Technically speaking, crude oil fell and closed down under pressure yesterday, with the highest rebound47.50Under pressure on the front line, European and American markets broke through the previous day's low point during the trading period46.50Weakening, although accompanied by a rebound and a tug of war washing, the tail end still came under pressure and closed at a low level, the lowest45.60.And the daily chart closed with a small negative line. The daily chart rebound has not been sustained. Turning negative and falling, continuing to fluctuate and closing the weekly chart. Short term fluctuations within the day.
　　
Short line4When the hour falls below the support point, it slightly weakens. If you step back chronically, continue to explore and seek support. In terms of small cycles, the late night rebound was still ongoing47.50Under pressure below, there will be a small downward trend in the short term below this level. At least whether it can be further explored and rebounded depends on the pattern after the downward trend before making a decision. The current structure is relatively weak. And the breakthrough point46.60-80Still converted into resistance. Overall, in terms of today's trading strategy, Zhihao Dianjin's personal suggestion is to focus on rebounding and short selling, supplemented by a pullback and long selling; Follow Above46.8-47.0Resistance, pay attention below44.6-44.8Support!
　　
　　3.6Reference for crude oil operation strategy:
　　
Empty order strategy:
　　
Above the rebound of crude oil46.6-46.8Short selling nearby(Buy down), two tenths of a position, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target45.5-45.2Nearby; Dislocation44.8Near.
　　
Multi order strategy:
　　
Below the crude oil correction44.6-44.8Nearby long (buy up), 2/10 positions, stop loss0.4USD, target45.5-46.0Nearby; Dislocation46.5Near.
　　
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