MexGroup：晨早快讯（2020-03-05）

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Focus of foreign exchange market

Trading preference – This week is relatively beautiful and beautiful/Rui（USDCHF）. Although the euro has recently been hit hard by the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut50个基点而获得提振。但考虑到公共卫生事件可能导致部分欧盟国家陷入衰退，叠加欧洲央行也即将降息，导致了欧元承压下行。其实，我们近期也一再提示欧元（EURUSD)The rebound is basically coming to an end.1.1150The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.





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英国方面，英镑因一名欧盟官员称与英国的贸易谈判开局良好后触及日内高位，但考虑到肺炎影响，英国央行降息预期较强。因此，短期我们还是维持英镑为震荡偏弱结构，短期可关注下方1.2800Support.

商品货币方面，澳元在G-7The best performing currency is due to the country's fourth quarterGDPBetter than expected, second is the Australian Federal Reserve's interest rate cut25个基点以后进入观望期，这些都令澳元多头跃跃欲试。另外，昨日加拿大央行降息50The basis points meet market expectations, but considering market expectations, the Bank of Canada will also4Monthly interest rate reduction25A basis point, the Canadian dollar is generally weak.





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避险货币方面，近期美联储为应对公共卫生事件造成的经济冲击，紧急降息50Basis points, USD（DXY）Under pressure. But based on the data released yesterday,ADP和服务业数据均好于预期，给美元带来了提振。并且，我们在前面两天一直提示大家美指（DXY）On97The following are all good supports.

昨日，日元随全球股市上涨而走低。就目前来看，我们认为美/Day on107The following are all good supports, with a slight rebound in the second half of the week.





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It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.

MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7Currency Hedge Portfolio. The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.96%And reach a new historical high, this week's combination and as of Beijing time3month05day07:05The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).





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commodity market

Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡偏多的结构。从长期来看，随着美国长期国债收益率的创新低，以及各国央行已经采取降息行动，我们认为黄金是有核心上涨逻辑的。但短期风险偏好回归，打击了对黄金等避险资产的需求。因此，我们短期维持黄金为震荡走势，中期上调金价终于1650dollar/ounce.

In terms of oil prices, yesterday, the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia over production cuts drove oil prices down. But considering the interest rate cuts andOPEC+The expectation of expanding the scale of production reduction is still there, and oil prices still have some support. Technically, 43For the ultimate support position, 49We believe that the short-term pressure will continue to rise after a brief correction.





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stock market index前瞻股指方面，随着全球利率下调是带来了一定支撑。港股周三窄幅震荡，早盘呈VThe trend of the pattern is in the end of the trading day26300Repeatedly around the point. Closing, Hang Seng Index closed lower0.24%。

盘面上，汽车、香港本地银行板块疲软，黄金、内房板块造好。考虑到全球市场的疲弱，建议近期投资者以防御为主。技术形态上，28000It's a lot of pressure, below25500Medium term support requires special attention.





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abstract

CFTCCapital flow data shows that net short positions in the euro and yen are at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions is still increasing. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.





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XAUCan continue to hold.

Europe/Mei can profit from being eliminated.





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Economic Calendar

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