3.4Will gold continue to fall after a sharp rise? Analysis and Operation of Today's Gold and Crude Oil Trends

goods in stockgoldTuesday(3month3day)Short term rapid rise and approach40The US dollar hit its highest intraday high in the US market1630dollar/Ounces, due to the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut50One basis point is mainly to cope with the constantly changing risks of the virus. At the same time, the federal funds ratefuturesIt shows that there will be more interest rate cuts this year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has hit the US dollar, helping assets denominated in US dollars such as gold rise. On the other hand, the pandemic situation in many parts of the world is still deteriorating, which has kept the demand for safe haven gold strong.
　　
Tuesday（3month3In the evening, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate50Basis points, adjust the excess reserve ratio（IOER）Downregulation50Bps to1.1%. Federal Open Market Committee of the United States（FOMC）Consensus on the decision to lower interest rates. The Federal Reserve stated that the reason for the interest rate cut is due to the constantly changing risks posed by the virus. It will closely monitor economic development and its impact on the economic outlook, and will use relevant tools to take appropriate actions to support the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve stated that the fundamentals of the US economy remain strong.
　　
Gold rose to1640Above the US dollar, the rebound from the lower day exceeded50US dollars. Yesterday's increase basically recouped last Friday's decline, and it is not surprising that there was a big rise after the sharp drop in gold. However, we did not expect it to be so fast. This is indeed because the pandemic has had a significant impact on the US economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to urgently announce interest rate cuts50One basis point, and the intensity of this interest rate cut will also be unprecedented. US federal funds rate futures display2020There will be more interest rate cuts this year, according toCMEThe Federal Reserve observes that the market is concerned about the Federal Reserve's role in4Further interest rate cuts in the month25Bps to0.75%-1.00%The probability is still as high as68.6%. So for the future, gold will undoubtedly continue to rise.
　　
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　　3.4Analysis of gold market trend:
　　
From a technical perspective on gold: Looking at the daily chart, gold has once again caused a big upset. Unlike Friday, the price of gold surged again yesterday1649First line, with a daily increase of64US dollars. Coincidentally, this position happens to be the high point of last Friday, so this rise also indicates that the correction cycle of gold has passed, and it is still an upward channel. The only difference is that the retracement is slightly deeper, but it does not affect the structure of gold! From a structural perspective, the gold price range saw through a tug of war, and after a trading day of correction, gold returned to last Friday's high as expected. But obviously, this position is not the current high point, and gold bulls are bound to continue to attack. The high of 107 may only be a matter of time!
　　
From a four hour perspective, the golden US market saw another surge, reaching its highest point1649On the front line, we can see the strength of the bulls. And what we need to do with such a strong increase is to take advantage of the trend to avoid further deepening of the trend! Overall, in terms of short-term operation strategy today, Zhihao Dianjin's personal suggestion is to focus on a pullback to buy long, supplemented by a rebound to short, with a focus on short-term operations above1658-1660Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1628-1626Frontline support.
　　
　　3.4Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:
　　
Empty order strategy:
　　
Gold rebound1658-1660Short (buy down) two tenths of a position nearby, stop loss4Points, target1640-1530Nearby. Break the position to see1528frontline;
　　
Multiple order strategy:
　　
Gold Callback1628-1630Nearby long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss4Points, target1650-1655Nearby, break down and take a look1660frontline;
　　
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　　3.4crude oilFundamental and technical analysis:
　　
Wednesday Beijing time(3month4day)In the early morning, the American Petroleum Institute(API)According to published data, as of2month28Day and WeekAPIIncrease in crude oil inventory169Ten thousand barrels, expected increase333.3Ten thousand barrels; Reduced gasoline inventory390Ten thousand barrels; Reduced inventory of refined oil170Ten thousand barrels; After the data was released, the US oil company saw a slight decline in the short term and closed higher47.10dollar/Barrel, increase0.75%. The Federal Reserve stated in its statement that the risks posed by public health events to economic activity are constantly evolving. Given these risks and in order to achieve the goals of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, the Federal Open Market Committee has decided today to lower the target range of the federal funds rate50One percentage point. This is2008Since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has urgently lowered interest rates for the first time between routine policy meetings. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a hastily convened press conference in Washington, "My colleagues and I have taken this action to help maintain strength in the US economy as it faces new risks. The deterioration of the public health situation has brought new challenges and risks.".
　　
On the technical side, crude oil opened high yesterday morning and rose after risingKThe line did not retrace the previous gap but continued to rise; From a daily perspectiveMACDThe moving average volume is gradually decreasing, and there are also signs of upward trend in the double line; In the short term, crude oil will show signs of recovery;MA5AndMA10The moving average is still stabilizing at52.20A dead fork on the front line descends;KIf you want a significant unilateral increase in the line, then the upper part49.2The pressure level is the key position. To stabilizeKStarting from attributing to50Above, the market remains mainly empty without stabilizing.
　　
　　4Looking at the hour lineKThe line stabilizes at the bottom support position43.40Afterwards, it was in a unilateral upward trend; Upper line pressure level49.2First line. Second line pressure level48.60frontline; Lower support position47.30frontline; Technically speakingMACDThe golden cross at the bottom of the moving average rises and the red energy column continues to increase in volume;KDJAndRSIThe moving average has three parallel upward trends. Overall, in terms of today's trading strategy, Zhihao Dianjin's personal suggestion is to focus on a pullback and buy long, with a rebound and short selling as a supplement; Follow Above49.0-49.2Resistance, pay attention below46.8-47.0Support!
　　
　　3.4Reference for crude oil operation strategy:
　　
Empty order strategy:
　　
Above the rebound of crude oil49.0-49.2Short selling nearby(Buy down), two tenths of a position, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target47.8-47.5Nearby; Dislocation47.0Near.
　　
Multi order strategy:
　　
Below the crude oil correction46.8-47.0Nearby long (buy up), 2/10 positions, stop loss0.4USD, target48.0-48.5Nearby; Dislocation49.0Near.
　　
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