12month17Intraday strategy for US Japan crude oil futures

Futures marketgoldStrategy: External drivefutures｜12month17japan-us crude oilFutures intraday strategy analysis
Today's important financial data and events
17:30  britain11Monthly unemployment rate, UK11Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits(ten thousand people)UK10Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate
18:00  eurozone10Monthly adjusted trade account(100 million euros)
19:00  britain12monthCBIIndustrial order difference
21:30  U.S.A11Annualized total monthly construction of new houses(10000 households), USA11Total monthly construction permits(10000 households)
22:15  U.S.A11Monthly industrial output rate
The next day05:30  From the United States to12month13Day and WeekAPICrude oil inventory(10000 barrels)
The next day01:30  2019yearFOMC票委、波士顿联储主席罗森格伦在纽约预测机构俱乐部发表演说。

US crude oil news:Monday(12month16day)油价小幅收涨，WTI 1Monthly crude oil futures up0.14USD, increase0.23%Report60.21dollar/Barrel; Brent2Monthly crude oil futures up0.12USD, increase0.18%, received at65.34dollar/桶。美油连续第二个交易日收于每桶60美元上方。在周五宣布中美达成部分贸易协定的前几天，看涨押注创三年来最大增长。
丰业银行大宗商品策略主管Michael Loewen表示，投资者仍在消化中美之间达成初步协议的消息，早些时候发布的美国制造业和服务业数据显示经济强劲，也提振了市场信心。虽然在过去20个月贸易争端中加征的关税很多维持不变，但初步协议标志着中美关系的解冻；而且，OPEC+本月初宣布的减产幅度超出预期。
需求前景方面，近期三大机构陆续公布12月报，从平衡表来看，EIA、OPECandIEAyesOPEC原油需求量分别为2920、2910、285010000 barrels/日，如果OPEC能够减产到位至290010000 barrels/日，那么如果按照前两家机构的预估来看，明年一季度大致供需平衡。
butIEA相对悲观，即便是OPEC减产到位，市场也会过剩7010000 barrels/日，不过IEA在本次月报上修了明年一季度市场对OPEC原油需求量的预期，从283010000 barrels/日上修至293010000 barrels/日。目前来看，机构普遍下调了明年美国石油产量的增长预期，EIADownregulated1810000 barrels/Day,IEADownregulated1110000 barrels/日，美国产量预期下修之后，市场对OPEC原油需求有所增加。分析师指出，11月通常是原油价疲软的月份，但今年11月油价却录得上涨。根据过去经验，11月份原油上涨时，12月份油价大概率会继续上涨。如果布油能够突破67.5美元的水平，那么有可能升至70美元。不过若油价跌破上周区间底部(63Near USD)，那么布油价格可能跌往60USD.
Technical aspects of US crude oil:美原油日线上看，布林带三轨朝上开口扩张，MA5/MA10均线金叉缓和朝上运行，KThe line intersects between the upper and middle tracks in BolinMA5Above the moving average,MACD快慢线交金叉上行红色动能弱势放量，KDJ三线呈金叉向右走平，原油整体还是位于多头趋势内；4小时图上，布林带三轨朝上开口运行，均线多头向上发散，MA5On the moving averageMA10The moving average crosses the golden cross upwards,KThe line intersects with the Bolin Upper Rail LineMA5Near the moving average,MACD快慢线呈金叉向右运行红色动能小幅缩量，KDJ三线呈金叉缩口向下运行，油价短线有回落风险但整体还是运行于上行趋势内。
Overall, for intraday operations, it is recommended to mainly focus on a pullback and a bullish trend, with initial resistance above60.6Nearby, the resistance in the next step is61.5； Preliminary support below59.9Nearby, further support is provided59.5。
US crude oil（02Contract trading strategy
1Above60.4-60.6Short term short selling, stop loss0.3, Objective59.3-59.5Nearby;
2Below59.3-59.5Long nearby, stop loss0.4, Objective60.4-60.6Nearby;
Reading instructions: Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution. This analysis is provided by the Futures Gold Strategy and is for reference only. It is not intended as the final basis for placing orders.

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