Industrial Investment:OPEC+减产存疑，国际油价暴跌逾4%

Industrial Investment:OPEC+减产存疑，国际油价暴跌逾4%
2019year12month2day
国际油价上周五大幅下挫，盘中跌幅一度达到5%，主要受有迹象显示OPEC+stay12月会议上不愿加大减产力度和中美贸易不确定性的打压。不过中美经济数据向好，缓解了crude oil需求前景黯淡的担忧，这为油价提供了些许支持。美国截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil1monthfuturesClosing down2.68USD, or4.62%Report55.39dollar/Bucket, highest reach58.16dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to55.01dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil2Monthly futures closed lower2.57USD, or4.06%Report60.69dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray63.18dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to60.33dollar/Bucket.
虽然，俄罗斯塔斯社(TASS)援引阿曼能源部长的话称，OPEC产油国已经就延长维也纳协议达成一致。不过，有消息称沙特不愿再为其他成员国的过度生产提供补贴。另彭博社的一篇报道称，“OPEC及其盟友不愿在开会时进一步削减产量”。此外，还有人担心俄罗斯会阻止OPEC增加减产配额。这令市场对于OPEC+将加大减产力度的乐观预期消退，给油价施加了强劲的下行压力。
有消息称，最近接替哈立德?法立赫就任沙特能源部长的阿卜杜勒?阿齐兹?book?萨勒曼王子可能对OPEC当前的减产协议表示担忧。据说沙特将不再对其他成员国不遵守减产协议的行为作出补偿。OPECWill be on12month5日在维也纳召开会议，看起来会有一些激烈的争论。考虑到沙特国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)即将进行首次公开发行(IPO)，这似乎是一个非常冒险的策略，但这个国家可能觉得已经受够了，因为他们已经对其他行动迟缓的成员国进行了一段时间的过度补偿。
俄罗斯塔斯社(TASS)上周五报道称，俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大?诺瓦克表示，他希望OPEC及其非OPEC盟友在明年4月会议临近时，就是否延长原油产量限制协议做出决定。“天然气凝析油占俄罗斯石油总产量的7-8%，”诺瓦克进一步补充说。受这些言论影响，原油价格继续走低。
路透社周五调查显示，OPEC 11月原油日产量下降11Ten thousand barrels, to2,957万桶。路透补充称："OPEC 11月最大的产量降幅发生在安哥拉，该国因油田维护而导致日产量减少14Ten thousand barrels."尽管石油产量下降通常会起到支撑作用，但这一事态发展可能导致产油国在12月会议上避免延长减产，这一事实似乎正在给原油价格带来压力。
此外，在伊拉克持续几周的动乱之后，伊拉克总理迈赫迪上周五宣布辞职。一些交易员认为，伊拉克持续的抗议活动的结束，将导致石油供应中断威胁的结束，这对油价不利。
USD Index
美元指数上周五早盘小幅回落至98.267水平后走高，触及10month15New high in recent days98.506水平，但随着纽约午盘后欧元和英镑走强令美元承压，拖累美元指数反转走低，触及98.187近一周低点，最终收于98.206Horizontal.
日内关注美国11monthMarkit和供应管理协会(ISM)Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)，在美国消费数据仍相对旺盛的情况下，如果美国制造业进一步改善，可能会继续支撑美元。11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI料持稳于52.2水平。美国ISM)manufacturingPMIsince2018year4月达到峰值后开始下滑，在2019year9Monthly decrease47.8的十年低点。该指数10月份回升至48.3Expected11月份数据将改善至49.4。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道下降，油价自下轨回升;14and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators have declined.
4小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价回升至下轨上方;14and20Bearish moving average;Random indicators have rebounded from oversold areas.
1小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价自下轨回升;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days54.80-57.50Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month21Daily low point56.60After breaking through, we will explore further11month27Daily low point57.50And then11month29Daily high point58.05and11month27Daily high point58.65, and9month19Daily high point59.50and60.00Psychological checkpoint;And the following supports attention11month29Daily low point55.00Falling below will lead to exploration11month20Daily low point54.85And then11month1Daily low point54.10and10month31Daily low point53.70, and10month22Daily low point53.20and10month21Daily low point52.70。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道扩散，油价自下轨回升;14and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators have declined.
4小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价回升至下轨上方;14and20Bearish moving average;Random indicators have rebounded from oversold areas.
1小时图：保利加通道下降，油价回升至下轨上方;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days60.30-62.95Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month21Daily low point61.90Breakthrough will be explored11month20Daily high point62.80And then11month29Daily high point63.20and11month28Daily high point64.00, and11month27Daily high point64.60and9month20Daily high point65.25;And the following supports attention11month29Daily low point60.30Falling below will lead to exploration11month1Daily low point59.40And then10month31Daily low point59.20and10month23Daily low point58.80, and10month21Daily low point58.20and10month10day57.75。
Follow on Monday:
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A10月营建支出
U.S.A11monthISMmanufacturingPMI