MBG Markets：节前交易情绪谨慎，非美货币涨跌不一

　　
MF下调日本GDP预期，美国民主党酝酿弹劾攻势(USD/JPY)
　　
　　技术面：美元兑日元上一交易日震幅达32Individual points, closing up0.25%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to58-59Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above109.05Below support attention108.22。
　　
　　基本面：美国11Monthly Dallas Fed Business Activity Index Record-1.3%，优于市场预期-3.8及前值-5.1。美国众议院情报委员会民主党领袖希夫：众议院情报小组正为司法委员会准备弹劾报告，报告将在感恩节休会后完成。IMF将日本2019yearGDPGrowth expectations from0.9%Down to0.8%. expect2020年日本GDP将放缓至0.5%。其他主要央行更偏向宽松的货币政策立场可能导致日元升值，从而不利于日本央行提振通胀的努力。
　　
欧元延续偏弱震荡，野村看好欧元中期走势(EUR/USD)
　　
　　技术面：欧元兑美元上一交易日震幅达29Points, closing down0.11%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价贴近布林下轨；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5趋于下行，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to39-40一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注布林中轨位置，下方支撑关注1.0990。
　　
　　基本面：野村G10货币估值REER模型：当前EUR被低估8.2%，基准假设是，EUR将在中期走强，预计到2020end of the yearEUR/USD将升至1.16一线，主要受到三大因素影响：欧元区和美国经济增长由分化转向汇合，美国GDP增速料降至趋势水平下方，而欧元区GDP增速将提升；地缘政治环境将更为稳定；相对货币政策前景支持EUR稳定。高盛：预计明年美元将下跌1.5-2.0%。此外，美元面临的风险偏向下行。如果欧元区出现更为强劲的复苏或者美联储进一步降息，我们对美元的预期将更为悲观。
　　
批发销售数据走强，加元低位盘整(USD/CAD)
　　
　　技术面：美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达34Individual points, closing up0.05%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to65-66Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.3350，下方支撑关注布林中轨位置。
　　
　　基本面：加拿大9月批发销售月率报1%，优于预期0.4%及前值-1.2%. Canada9月批发销售年率报4%，显著优于前值2%. stay7个子行业中，有5个子行业的销售录得增长。机械、设备和供应子行业，以及个人和家庭用品的销售增长，占批发销售的82%，从销量看，增幅为0.9%。数据发布后，美元兑加元USDCAD短线下行10余点。加拿大至11month22日全国经济信心指数报55，稍逊于前值水平56.23。
　　
　　
　　
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