Industrial Investment: Bull Confidence Rising Oil prices have risen for two consecutive days

Industrial Investment: Bull Confidence Rising Oil prices have risen for two consecutive days
2019year11month22day
becauseOPECAnd its allies are expected to extend the production reduction agreement to2020The geopolitical tensions in mid year and the Middle East, as well as the resurgence of optimism in the Sino US trade agreement,crude oilBulls' confidence was greatly boosted, driving oil prices to rise significantly for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday, reaching a new high in over two months. As of closing, USAWTIcrude oil1monthfuturesIncome increase1.35USD, or2.37%Report58.29dollar/Bucket, highest reach58.65dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to56.59dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil1Monthly futures up1.29USD, or2.07%Report63.71dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray64.00dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to61.91dollar/Bucket.
Reuters quoted sources as saying,OPECAnd its allies12At the monthly meeting, the existing oil production reduction measures may be extended to2020Mid year. In Saudi Aramco(Saudi Aramco)At the time of listing, nonOPECOil producing country Russia supports Saudi Arabia's efforts to stabilize oil prices. One personOPECThe source stated that so far, there are two main options: either12Monthly meeting to extend the current reduction plan to6month;Or postpone the decision until early next year, at3Hold a meeting before the month to check the market situation and extend the production reduction until mid year. More likely, in the12Extend the agreement on a monthly basis to convey positive information to the market.2020The market situation in the first quarter of the year remains uncertain due to concerns about a slowdown in oil demand and low compliance with production by oil producing countries such as Iraq and Nigeria, which further complicates the outlook. One personOPECRepresentative representation (extend)to6At the end of the month, to avoid3The meeting will be held again at the beginning of the month, and if market conditions require it, it may be requested to convene the meeting in advance. These two sources stated that it is currently unlikely to officially announce a larger production reduction, but it may convey information to the market about better compliance with existing production reduction plans.
In terms of geopolitics, Iranian officials have announced that they have quelled the latest protests that led to internet disruptions across the country, but this statement still seems to have doubts. At the same time, starting from10At the beginning of the month, large-scale anti government demonstrations continued in various areas such as the Iraqi capital Baghdad. In addition, the Hussein rebels shot down the Saudi coalition forcesF-15The news also provided additional impetus for the rise in oil prices.
In addition to positive developments in the Sino US trade situation, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD)In its latest economic growth forecast,2019Year and2020The global economic growth rate is expected to be2.9%，2019The annual growth rate remains unchanged from previous predictions, while2020The annual growth rate is as follows3%Downregulation. Further details of the report indicate that the OECD expects the United States to2019Year and2020The annual growth rates are respectively2.3%and2%And the Chinese economy is2019Year and2020The annual growth rates are respectively6.2%and5.7%. This no longer pessimistic report also boosted market sentiment.
Looking ahead to the future, the purchasing managers' indices of major countries and regions around the world will be released in the near future(PMI)Data and news related to trade headlines will be important market drivers. In addition, Baker Hughes(Baker Hughes)The weekly announcement of the number of US oil drilling platforms will also attract investors' attention, as the number of drilling platforms sharply decreased last week10Seat to674Seat.
USD Index
The US dollar index opened slightly lower on Thursday and fell again after covering the gap, hitting97.689Multi day low. However, with positive signs of trade and an increase in US bond yields, as well as overall positive US economic data, the US dollar index has been boosted to97.995Horizontal. In addition, Trump signed a bill to prevent the government from12month20Recently, it was closed again, which also provided some support for the US dollar.
According to data released by the National Association of Real Estate Agents on Thursday,10Month on month growth in completed home sales1.9%, year-on-year growth4.6%. This is mainly boosted by lower mortgage interest rates. Although the recent improvement in the second-hand housing market is encouraging, the growth in the past few months indicates that the decline caused by the rise in mortgage interest rates last year has reversed. In addition, recent improvements may reflect a slow and stable upward trajectory regression, which has become a sign of this expansion. Meanwhile, the United States 11The monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index has increased from the previous month's5.6Ascend to10.4. However, as of the end of the US11month15Increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week22.7Ten thousand, higher than expected21.8Ten thousand, previous value is22.5ten thousand;Last week, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States unexpectedly remained unchanged, reaching a five month high, indicating a partial weakening of the job market.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari stated that if trade issues are resolved, commercial investment will increase. At the same time, Cleveland Fed Chairman Maester stated at the Financial Stability Conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed that if there are signs of weakness in employment or consumer spending, she will reassess monetary policy. The risks facing the economy are still slightly downward sloping, and it is expected that the US economy will grow on average this year2%Inflation rate slightly lower than2%。
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily image: The Poly Plus channel slightly rises, with oil prices approaching the upper track of development;14and20Daily moving average bullish;Random indicators are rising.
4Hour chart: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices retreating from the upper track;14and20Bullish moving average;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel up, oil prices falling from the upper track;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;Random indicators have rebounded from oversold areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days56.60-59.50Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month21Daily high point58.65After breaking through, we will explore further9month23Daily high point58.85And then9month19Daily high point59.50and60.00Psychological barriers, and7month15Daily high point60.90and9month17Daily high point62.55;And the following supports attention11month20Daily high point57.35Falling below will lead to exploration11month21Daily low point56.60And then11month8Daily low point55.75and11month20Daily low point54.85, and11month1Daily low point54.10and10month31Daily low point53.70。
Brent crude oil
Daily image: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices approaching the upper track of development;14and20Daily moving average bullish;Random indicators are rising.
4Hour chart: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices retreating from the upper track;14and20Bullish moving average;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel up, oil prices falling from the upper track;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;Random indicators have declined.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days61.90-64.60Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month21Daily high point64.00Breakthrough will be explored9month24Daily high point64.60And then9month20Daily high point65.25and9month19Daily high point65.55, and66.00Psychological barriers and7month16Daily high point67.05;And the following supports attention11month20Daily high point62.80Falling below will lead to exploration11month21Daily low point61.90And then11month13Daily low point61.20and11month19Daily low point60.65, and60.00Psychological barriers and11month1Daily low point59.40。
Follow on Friday:
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI
U.S.A11Monthly University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A11Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for the Month
Changes in weekly oil drilling in Baker Hughes, United States
Cleveland Fed Chairman Maester delivers a speech