兴业投资：多空陷入拉锯 油价现过山车行情

兴业投资：多空陷入拉锯 油价现过山车行情
2019year11month21day
由于俄罗斯表示将继续与OPEC合作以支持油市平衡，以及与伊朗相关的紧张局势不断升级，加之美国EIAcrude oil库存增幅不及预期，国际油价周三因此大幅飙升，创本月1日以来最大单日涨幅。不过全球最大的两个经济体之间的贸易/政治紧张情绪持续升温，令全球能源需求受到挑战，打击了多头信心，油价受累回吐部分涨幅。美国截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil1monthfuturesIncome increase1.59USD, or2.87%Report56.94dollar/Bucket, highest reach57.35dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to54.84dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil1Monthly futures up1.7USD, or2.8%Report62.42dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray62.77dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to60.27dollar/Bucket.
俄罗斯总统普京周三发表声明称，俄罗斯希望能源市场是可预测和平衡的，他们将继续与沙特阿拉伯和OPEC就产量限制进行合作，以保持全球石油市场的平衡，这为原油价格提供更多的支持，扭转了此前有关俄罗斯不太可能在下月的OPEC会议上支持进一步削减产量的悲观情绪。
沙特国王萨勒曼(King Salman)周三在舒拉会议(Shura Council)上表示，沙特阿拉伯的石油政策旨在稳定全球石油市场，同时为产油国和消费国服务。萨尔曼进一步补充说，他们的目标是安全和可靠的石油供应。“9份的袭击后，沙特阿美迅速恢复石油产能的能力，证明了沙特在任何短缺时期都有能力满足全球需求。”
伊朗新一轮的示威运动爆发之后旋即风起云涌，顷刻间席卷全国百余座城镇。截止20日，伊朗的抗议活动导致近100人死亡。伊朗此次规模甚大的暴力示威活动是美伊博弈日趋激烈、斗争持续剧烈所衍生的副产品。特朗普政府上台之后，美国对伊朗的战略施压经历了威逼伊朗修改核协议到美国单方面退出伊核协议，再到将制裁领域拓展至最为核心的油气领域，直至最终单方面废除对有关国家进口伊朗石油的制裁豁免权，美国希冀通过扼住伊朗的石油出口命脉来实现对伊朗的极限施压。
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that, by11month15During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased137.910000 barrels to4.504Billion barrels, market expectations increase15410000 barrels;Reduced inventory of Cushing crude oil229.5Ten thousand barrels, creating8month23日当周以来最大降幅;Reduced inventory of refined oil97.4Ten thousand barrels, continuous9周下滑，市场预期减少86.510000 barrels;Increase in gasoline inventory175.6Ten thousand barrels, market expectations increase104.9万桶。此外，上周美国国内原油产量持平于纪录高位的128010000 barrels/日。由于上周美国原油库存增幅低于预期，同时产量维持纪录高位。EIA报告公布后，美油和布油扩大升势。
USD Index
美元指数周三开盘后自97.81低点震荡上扬，因市场对贸易协议前景的担忧加剧之际，投资者对高风险资产的偏好减弱。不过，随着美债收益率下降，削弱了美元的吸引力，使得美元指数破败98.00心理关口后转跌，最终小幅收高于97.862Horizontal.
北京时间周四凌晨，美联储发布的会议纪要措辞偏向中性，一方面承认了经济存在下行压力，尤其是在贸易困局之下增长受限，但另一方面却又认为近期无需继续降息，且完全没有实施负利率政策的必要性。平淡无奇的的会议纪要公布后，金融市场几无反应。会议纪要影响平淡主要是关于全球贸易前景的正面及负面消息传闻不断涌现，反复左右了市场交投情绪。而在美联储未来一段时间趋于按兵不动的政策基调基本确定之后，市场将会把更多关注注意力集中到全球贸易政策领域，并对此方面的消息反应更加敏感。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道略微上扬，油价升穿中轨;14日均线持平，20日均线温和看涨;Random indicators fluctuate higher.
4Hourly chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices approaching mid rail development;14均线持平，20均线下行势头趋缓;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel up, oil prices falling from the upper track;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;Random indicators are rising.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days55.75-58.05Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month20Daily high point57.35After breaking through, we will explore further11month18Daily high point58.05And then9month24Daily high point58.50and9month23Daily high point58.85, and9month19Daily high point59.50and60.00心理放宽;And the following supports attention11month8Daily low point55.75Falling below will lead to exploration11month20Daily low point54.85And then11month1Daily low point54.10and10month31Daily low point53.70, and10month22Daily low point53.20and10month21Daily low point52.70。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道略微上扬，油价升穿中轨;14and20日均线温和看涨;Random indicators are rising.
4Hourly chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices approaching mid rail development;14均线持平，20均线下行势头趋缓;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel up, oil prices falling from the upper track;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;Random indicators have declined.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days61.20-63.60Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month20Daily high point62.80Breakthrough will be explored11month15Daily high point63.60And then64.00Psychological barriers and9month24Daily high point64.60, and9month20Daily high point65.25and9month19Daily high point65.55;And the following supports attention11month13Daily low point61.20Falling below will lead to exploration11month19Daily low point60.65And then60.00Psychological barriers and11month1Daily low point59.40, and10month23Daily low point58.80and10month21Daily low point58.20。
Follow on Thursday:
U.S.A11Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
Weekly unemployment claims in the United States
U.S.A10Monthly Housing Sales
Cleveland Fed Chairman Maester delivers a speech
明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利发表讲话