兴业投资：钻井数继续下降 油价上周五反转收高

兴业投资：钻井数继续下降 油价上周五反转收高
2019year11month11day
国际油价上周五前半日受贸易不确定打压，触及一周低点。随后由于美国石油活跃钻井数继续大幅减少，支持油价扭转盘中跌势并适当收高。不过美元普遍走强，以及伊朗发现大型油田，加剧了现有全球供大于求的担忧，威胁了油价升势。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil12monthfuturesIncome increase0.45USD, or0.79%Report57.40dollar/Bucket, highest reach57.46dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to55.74dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil1Monthly futures up0.26USD, or0.42%Report62.61dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray62.67dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to60.66dollar/Bucket.
Baker Hughes, an American oil service company(Baker Hughes)The latest data shows that as of11month8During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased7Seat to684seat;Reduction in total number of active oil and gas drilling operations5Seat to817seat;天然气活跃钻井数持平于130Seat.
周一，油价开盘承压走低，伊朗发现巨大油田加剧原油供应过剩的担忧。与此同时，美元普遍走强，也继续抑制着原油市场人气。
伊朗总统哈桑?鲁哈尼周末在亚兹德市发表讲话时称，伊朗发现了一个巨大的油田，据估计原油储量规模达到530亿桶。新发现的油田将成为该国储量第二大油田，仅次于阿瓦兹的一个油田，该油田储量为650亿桶。这将使该国原油储量上升到第三位，仅次于其地区对手沙特阿拉伯。伊朗能否从中受益仍有待观察，因为在美国实施单边制裁后，伊朗一直难以出售其化石燃料。
伊拉克能源部长萨米尔?加德班周末表示，尽管伊拉克石油主要产区南部及中部省份的示威抗议活动仍在继续，但原油开采和出口情况保持稳定。伊拉克致力于完成OPEC设定的石油出口份额，目前石油开采处于“十分健康”的状况。
USD Index
美元指数上周五早盘在98.065低点略微调整后再续升势，再创10month16New high in recent days98.361，因贸易前景重现不确定性，提振了美元的避险需求。此外，美债收益率继续飙升，10Yields of one-year treasury bond bonds rose2.4Bps to1.941%，盘中一度触及多月新高1.953%，也提升了美元吸引力。
密歇根大学最新的消费者调查显示，11The monthly consumer confidence index starts from10Of95.5Slightly rising95.7，但低于市场预期的95.9。“消费者确实表达了对经济前景略为乐观的看法，但被对个人财务前景略为不利的看法所抵消，”消费者调查首席经济学家理查德?柯廷指出：“11月初，四分之一的消费者仍然自发的提到关税的负面影响。”
纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在一项活动中发表讲话时谈到了全球金融系统的脆弱性。威廉姆斯指出，在可预见的未来，利率将非常低，经济增长将较为温和;货币政策适度宽松;令他担心持续低通胀的是通胀预期可能下降;经济形势良好，劳动力市场非常强劲，失业率为3.5%，没有造成通货膨胀;货币政策目前处于有利地位。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价自上轨回落;14日均线趋平，20日均线上行势头趋缓;Random indicators have declined.
4小时图：保利加通道趋平，油价下测中轨;14and20均线交织持平;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
1小时图：保利加通道趋平，油价回落逼近中轨;14小时均线看涨，20The hourly moving average remains unchanged;随机指标加速下滑至超卖区。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days55.80-57.85Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month8Daily high point57.45After breaking through, we will explore further11month7Daily high point57.85And then9month24Daily high point58.50and9month19Daily high point59.50, and7month15Daily high point60.90and62.00Psychological checkpoint;And the following supports attention11month7Daily low point56.25Falling below will lead to exploration11month8Daily low point55.75And then55.00Psychological barriers and11month1Daily low point54.10, and10month31Daily low point53.70and10month22Daily low point53.20。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly Plus channel rising, oil prices developing above the mid rail;14and20Daily moving average bullish;Random indicators have declined.
4小时图：保利加通道收敛，油价跌穿中轨;14均线转为持平，20Bearish moving average;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
1小时图：保利加通道趋平，油价回落逼近中轨;14均线上行势头趋缓，20Bearish moving average;随机指标急剧下滑至超卖区。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days60.65-63.30Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month8Daily high point62.65Breakthrough will be explored11month6Daily high point63.30And then64.00Psychological barriers and9month24Daily high point64.60, and9month20Daily high point65.25and66.00Psychological checkpoint;And the following supports attention11month7Daily low point61.60Falling below will lead to exploration11month8Daily low point60.65And then60.00Psychological barriers and11month1Daily low point59.40, and10month23Daily low point58.80and10month21Daily low point58.20。
Follow on Monday:
美国因退伍军人节无经济数据发布
Boston Fed Chairman Rosengren delivers a speech