兴业投资：市场乐观情绪升温 油价上涨逾1%

兴业投资：市场乐观情绪升温 油价上涨逾1%
2019year11month8day
国际油价周四企稳反弹，收复了前一交易日大部分跌幅，主要受中美贸易协议取得重大进展、OPEC秘书长巴尔金都乐观言论及美伊之间重新出现的地缘政治紧张局势等多重利好因素支持。但市场担心需求疲软和美国及其他地区供应增加将使crude oil市场供应过剩，这限制了油价上行空间。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil12monthfuturesIncome increase0.65USD, or1.15%Report56.95dollar/Bucket, highest reach57.85dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to56.26dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil1Monthly futures up0.62USD, or1.01%Report62.35dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray62.86dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to61.62dollar/Bucket.
OPEC秘书长默罕默德?巴尔金都对原油市场的乐观展望也继续支持了油市的乐观基调。巴尔金都表示，2020年原油市场前景可能比先前预期的更加光明，淡化了进一步减产的必要性。
另有消息称，伊朗扣留国际原子能机构派驻该国检查人员，令市场担忧全球重要原油运输通道波斯湾的安全形势。几位熟悉国际原子能机构(IAEA)工作的外交人士表示，伊朗曾短暂扣留一位IAEA派驻该国的核查人员，并没收了她的旅行证件。自2015年伊核协议签署以来这还是第一次发生。根据伊核协议，伊朗政府限制核计划，换取国际社会解除对该国的多数制裁。但美国于2018year5月退出伊核协议，并对伊朗实施制裁，全面封杀伊朗石油出口，伊朗已逐步降低了对该协议的遵守程度。
然而，原油价格难以继续上涨，因为美国原油库存的增长超出预期，对价格构成了压力。展望未来，在最新的贸易新闻头条、美国消费者信心指数和贝克休斯美国石油钻井平台数出炉之前，市场情绪将是原油的主要驱动因素。截至11month1日当周，美国石油钻机数再减5Seat to691Seat, touching2017year4月来新低，若钻机数意外增加，油价料将受压走低。
USD Index
美元指数周四开盘后小幅调整至97.783低点再度走高，突破98.00心理关口，触及10month16New high in recent days98.196，主要受中美贸易取得积极进展、美国就业数据良好以及博斯蒂克鹰派言论的提振。此外美债收益率飙升至多月高位，也提升了美元吸引力。
美国劳工部周四公布，截止11month2The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week has decreased8000People, seasonally adjusted for21.1Ten thousand people, expected to be21.5万人，前一周的数据由21.8Revised to 1000021.9万人。初请失业金人数四周移动均值上周增加250Person to21.525万人。初请失业金人数水平表明劳动力市场状况稳定。
随着最近围绕美中贸易争端的新闻头条为市场情绪提供了强有力的提振，避险的美国国债难以找到需求，这推动10年期国债收益率跃升至8月初以来的最高水平1.950%，日增幅超过6.5%。
亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在纽约大学货币市场专家组织的一次活动上发表讲话时表示，当前的货币政策是“宽松的”。进一步的调整将取决于数据。如果他有投票权，就不会支持上次的降息。经济可能有点超出了充分就业的范畴。预计本季度末之前公布的经济数据将提振GDP增长。没有任何迹象表明消费者支出正在放缓。美联储希望尽早发现任何表明经济可能正在走弱的迹象。
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly Plus channel rising, oil prices developing above the mid rail;14and20Daily moving average bullish;Random indicators have declined.
4小时图：保利加通道趋平，油价在中轨上方徘徊;14均线转跌，20Flat moving average;Random indicators have declined.
1Hour chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices developing below the middle track;14小时均线转为持平，20小时均线上行斜率趋缓;Random indicators have rebounded from oversold areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days55.80-57.85Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month7Daily high point57.85After breaking through, we will explore further9month24Daily high point58.50And then9month19Daily high point59.50and60.00Psychological barriers, and7month15Daily high point60.90and62.00Psychological checkpoint;And the following supports attention11month7Daily low point56.25Falling below will lead to exploration11month4Daily low point55.80And then55.00Psychological barriers and11month1Daily low point54.10, and10month31Daily low point53.70and10month22Daily low point53.20。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly Plus channel rising, oil prices developing above the mid rail;14and20Daily moving average bullish;Random indicators have declined.
4小时图：保利加通道趋平，油价在中轨下方发展;14Under the moving average20均线，后者持平;Random indicators have declined.
1Hour chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices developing below the middle track;14小时均线转跌，20小时均线上行势头趋缓;Random indicators are turning higher.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days61.25-63.30Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month7Daily high point62.85Breakthrough will be explored11month6Daily high point63.30And then64.00Psychological barriers and9month24Daily high point64.60, and9month20Daily high point65.25and66.00Psychological checkpoint;And the following supports attention11month7Daily low point61.60Falling below will lead to exploration11month4Daily low point61.25And then10month29Daily high point60.60and11month1Daily low point59.40, and10month23Daily low point58.80and10month21Daily low point58.20。
Follow on Friday:
U.S.A11Monthly University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A9Monthly wholesale inventory
Number of Baker Hughes oil drilling platforms in the United States
New York Fed Chairman Williams delivers a speech
San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley delivers a speech