MBG Markets：英国脱欧大戏仍在延续，风险偏好情绪主宰汇市

　　
重新大选议案被否决，脱欧大戏仍在延续(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达65Individual points, closing up0.22%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5Tending towards a downward trend; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to62-63一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走高。上方关注1.3000位置，下方关注支撑1.2800Location.
　　
Fundamentals:昨日，欧盟27国一致同意将脱欧期限推迟至1month31日。今日凌晨，英国议会以299-70的票数否决约翰逊首相的大选议案。知情人士表示，英国议会将在周二对约翰逊提出的旨在进行大选的法案进行二读。高盛上调GBP/USD三个月、六个月、十二个月目标价位至1.29、1.33、1.35；其分析认为，尽管英国退欧的时间表更具不确定性，但是达成协议退欧的道路已经开始明朗，疑欧派的保守党议员已经联合表达了支持，不少工党议员们同样暗示可能会支持协议进行最小化的改动；认为英镑不太可能再次下探近期低点。
　　
利好因素密集呈现，大摩建议做多纽元(NZD/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:纽元兑美元上一交易日震幅达26Points, closing down0.06%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin track tends to rise, and the exchange rate continues to operate above the track; Daily lineMA5,10构死叉，MA5Tending towards a downward trend; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to51-52一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方关注0.6435位置，下方关注布林中轨位置。
　　
Fundamentals:摩根士丹利评估认为，在0.6320Going long nearbyNZD/USD是合理的。因上周公布的各国PMI数据出现企稳态势，且全球贸易风险有所下降，都将支持商品和风险情绪。这将引发美元全线走低，并支撑对商品敏感的货币。CFTC持仓数据显示，NZD空仓规模在G10货币中最为极端，因此NZD具有良好的上涨条件。新西兰联储：8月份降息应该会支撑通胀预期上升，并最终推动实际通胀上升；8月份的利率决定提醒市场要首先分析即将公布的数据和信息以确定该做什么。新西兰三季度CPI超出市场预期，反映了新西兰8月降息决定的有效性。
　　
风险情绪升温金价受挫，gold重回千五关口下方(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达182Points, closing down0.82%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线稍趋走平，金价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to47-48Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1500位置，下方支撑关注1487frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收涨3.64%, closing on13.11。金价前瞻指标巴里克黄金公司(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌2.79%, closing on16.72。本周盘初，受风险偏好情绪升温影响，股市和债券收益率同时向上突破。摩根士丹利的全球风险需求指标已达到2017year11月以来最高水平，这意味着风险市场可能会迎来一些修正。即股市、风险敏感型货币等交易品种或有回调需求，避险货币、黄金等品种或吸引买方涌入。
　　
　　
　　
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