兴业投资：减产预期+库存下降 国际油价飙升逾2%

兴业投资：减产预期+库存下降 国际油价飙升逾2%
2019year10month24day
国际油价周三大幅飙升，美油和布油分别冲破56.00and61.00美元关口，主要受到美国EIAcrude oil库存意外下降以及OPEC及其盟友将进一步减产预期的提振。不过，中东紧张局势的缓和，限制了油价上行空间。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil12monthfuturesIncome increase1.52USD, or2.80%Report55.72dollar/Bucket, highest reach56.05dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to53.61dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil12Monthly futures up1.51USD, or2.54%Report61.05dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray61.27dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to58.83dollar/Bucket.
在经济增长放缓导致原油需求疲弱的情况下，OPEC开始考虑进一步减产，这为油价提供了强有力支撑。路透社援引知情人士的消息称，OPEC及其盟友计划在12month5-6日的下一次会议上讨论进一步削减石油产量，以应对低迷的原油需求增长前景。OPEC和包括俄罗斯在内的其他产油国承诺，今年1月开始实施的削减原油日产量120万桶的减产协议将延续至2020year3Month.
美国能源信息署最新数据显示，截至10month18During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased169.910000 barrels to4.332亿桶，此前连续5周增长，市场预期增加172.510000 barrels;库欣原油库存增加150.6Ten thousand barrels, continuous3周增长;Reduced inventory of refined oil271.5Ten thousand barrels, continuous5周下滑，降至2018year7月以来最低水平，市场预期减少27010000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory310.7Ten thousand barrels, continuous4周下滑，创4month12日当周以来最大降幅，市场预期减少229.4万桶。此外，上周美国国内原油产量继续持平于126010000 barrels/The record high for the day.EIA库存报告公布后，提振了原油多头信心，推动美油和布油快速走高。
鉴于土耳其政府已告知美国土方将停止在叙利亚境内的军事行动、实现“永久性”停火，在周三的新闻发布会上，美国总统特朗普宣布他们将取消美国于10月中旬对土耳其实施的制裁。据路透社报道，“除非发生我不满意的事情，否则制裁将被解除，”特朗普补充说：“我们欢迎其他国家帮助解决土耳其和叙利亚的冲突。”
USD Index
美元指数周三开盘后震荡上扬，但触及97.612盘中高位后遇阻走低，跌至97.382日内低点，因市场预期美联储本月底再度降息削减了美元吸引力。此外，美股走高令市场风险偏好情绪升温，这也降低了美元的避险需求。
美国经济增长和通货膨胀自2018年上半年达到顶峰后就开始下降。减税带来的最初提振效益似乎已经消退：CPI增速处于两年低点，经济活动处于2016年初以来最低迷的时期。这或许可以解释美联储今年为什么转向鸽派。德意志银行预计，未来两个季度美联储还将进行降息三次。美国经济增速将从2019Of2.2%Slow down to2020Of1.5%;预计不会出现全面衰退的唯一原因是，政策反应将是迅速和实质性的。
日内美国将公布一系列重要经济数据，其中MarkitmanufacturingPMI和耐用品订单将是市场关注的焦点。HYCMIndustrial Investment(britain)Analysts expect9月份耐用品订单下降0.8%，8月份数据为增长0.2%。不包括运输在内的核心耐用品订单预计增长0.1%，上月增长0.5%;不包括国防在内的核心耐用品订单预计增长1.9%，上月下降0.6%;不包括飞机的非国防耐用品订单料下降0.4%，上月下降0.2%。若数据弱于预期，将会加剧美国经济陷入衰退的担忧，进而提升美联储采取激进宽松措施的预期，对美元构成压力。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价回落至上轨附近;14and20Daily moving average bullish;Random indicators are rising.
4小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价回落至上轨附近;14and20Bullish moving average;随机指标自超买区回落。
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel up, oil prices falling from the upper track;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;Random indicators have rebounded from oversold areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days54.00-57.00Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above10month23Daily high point56.05After breaking through, we will explore further9month25Daily high point57.00And then9month24Daily high point58.50and9month22Daily high point59.10, and9month19Daily high point59.50and60.00Psychological checkpoint;And the following supports attention10month22Daily high point54.75Falling below will lead to exploration10month21Daily high point54.00And then10month23Daily low point53.60and10month17Daily low point52.60, and10month10Daily low point52.10and10month9Daily low point51.40。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价靠近上轨发展;14日上穿20日均线，后者下行势头趋缓;Random indicators are rising.
4小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价回落至上轨附近;14and20Bullish moving average;随机指标自超买区回落。
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel up, oil prices falling from the upper track;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;Random indicators have declined.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days59.00-62.00Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above10month23Daily high point61.30Breakthrough will be explored62.00Psychological barriers, followed by9month27Daily high point62.70and9month23Daily low point63.50, and9month24Daily high point64.60and9month20Daily high point65.25;And the following supports attention10month17Daily low point60.00Falling below will lead to exploration10month18Daily low point59.00And then10month21Daily low point58.20and10month10Daily low point57.75, and10month8Daily low point57.35and10month3Daily low point56.10。
Follow on Thursday:
Weekly unemployment claims in the United States
U.S.A9Monthly durable goods orders
U.S.A10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A9Monthly sales of new houses