脱欧协议助力英镑上测，制造业萎靡美元持续走弱

　　脱欧协议敲定周六冲关，英镑上测1.30后劲不足(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达241Individual points, closing up0.35%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to72-73一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方阻力关注1.3000整数关口，下方支撑关注五日均线支撑效应。
　　
Fundamentals:周四下午，欧盟委员会主席容克表示，欧盟与英国达成脱欧协议。英镑兑美元闻讯直线飙升，逼近1.3关口，随后回落，美盘前甚至回吐日内所有涨幅，多头稍显后劲不足。英国工党领袖科尔宾：英国首相约翰逊磋商达成的脱欧协议比英国前首相特雷莎·梅那份曾受到大量反对的脱欧协议更糟糕。北爱尔兰民主统一党（DUP）消息人士：本党对于脱欧协议的立场没有改变。没有同意英国与欧盟达成的协议。本周六，英国议会召开会议，将就此份脱欧协议进行投票。由于约翰逊在下议院没有获得多数席位，料此份协议“冲关”十分艰难。

　　

制造业拖累美元，欧元延续升势(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar75Individual points, closing up0.46%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to68-69Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.1165，下方支撑关注如下图所示十日均线的支撑效应。
　　
Fundamentals:周四，德国政府下调2020年的经济增长预期，由1.5%Down to1%。德国预计全球需求减弱、英国脱欧和贸易争端的影响将持续到明年。欧元区货币市场几乎计价欧洲央行在12Monthly interest rate reduction10个基点，周二时对这一情景的概率预期仅为10%。 U.S.A9月工业产出环比下降0.4%；9月制造业产出环比下降0.5%。全美制造业状况的前瞻数据——美国10月费城联储制造业指数录得5.6。上述三项数据均弱于前值及市场预期。数据低迷主要受到了通用公司罢工等事件的影响；由于全球经济疲软和国际贸易纷争，工厂前景也维持低迷。

　　

gold运行空间极限压缩，警惕破位随时到来(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达139Individual points, closing up0.19%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5趋于走高，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to46-47一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力观察布林中轨位置，破位则可看向1500,1515；下方支撑关注下图所示趋势线位置，破位则看向1459。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收平于13.79； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day0.89%, closing on17.09。近期，英国脱欧进程及东西方贸易谈判进展令市场风险偏好情绪升温，打压黄金需求；同时疲软的各国经济数据及央行鸽派货币政策前景又对黄金构成利好。令加拿大帝国商业帝国：金价在进入相对积极的季节性周期，这应该会在年底前推动金价突破关键阻力位，预计今年四季度黄金均价为1500美元，高于此前预估的1425美元，银价将升至18美元，高于此前预测的16.25USD.

　　

　　
　　
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