兴业投资：油价窄幅波动 等待新的指引

兴业投资：油价窄幅波动 等待新的指引
2019year10month17day
随着市场对英国与欧盟可能达成脱欧协议的乐观情绪消退，加上旷日持久的贸易摩擦和全球经济放缓疑虑挥之不去，crude oil等风险资产再度承压。此外美国API原油库存飙升也给油价带来压力。但地缘政治紧张风险及OPEC和其他产油国可能进一步限制供应，为油价提供了一些支持。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil11monthfuturesClosing down0.18USD, or0.34%Report52.76dollar/Bucket, highest reach53.72dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to52.51dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil12Monthly futures up0.19USD, or0.32%Report59.02dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray59.72dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to58.34dollar/Bucket.
英国官方的最新表态称，北爱尔兰民主统一党(DUP)阻挡谈判进程，达成协议的可能性低，英国政府对脱欧协议的可能性持悲观立场。稍早前，法国欧洲事务国务秘书艾米莉?virtue?蒙特查林称，脱欧还是可能出现任何一种结果。任何可能导向无协议脱欧的举措，都会打压经济增长预期，进而抑制原油需求及打压油价。
经济增长放缓致使原油需求压力持续存在，国际能源机构(IEA)、美国能源情报署(EIA)和石油输出国组织(OPEC)频频下调未来全球原油需求预期。同时国际货币基金组织(IMF)近日将2019Expected global economic growth for the year7Of the month3.2%Down to3%，同时将2020Expected global economic growth for the year3.5%Down to3.4%。IMF指出：“由于贸易紧张局势、英国退欧、风险偏好下降、制造业疲弱等方面的不确定性，风险倾向于下行。”
American Petroleum Institute(API)The latest data shows that as of10month11During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased105010000 barrels to4.325Billion barrels, for2017year2月以来最大单周增幅，分析师预期增加277.210000 barrels;Cushing inventory increase16010000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory93.4Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect a decrease138.110000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil290Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect a decrease221.5Ten thousand barrels.API原油库存增幅再超千万桶，且连续五周录得增长，但汽油和精炼油库存继续下降。API数据公布后，美油和布油盘后短线下挫。
OPEC秘书长巴尔金都表示，OPEC及其盟友在12月会议考虑的选项之一是进一步减产，该组织将与盟友将尽其所能在2020年后继续维持原油市场稳定。此番表态为油价带来支持。OPEC、俄罗斯等产油国已经减产12010000 barrels/日，以支撑油市。
道明证券分析师表示，原油市场对油轮受袭、供应中断(包括结构性和暂时性的)以及紧张的地缘政治局势都已淡然视之，因产量大幅增加的预期给供应方面的乐观情绪蒙上了一层阴影，这将在欧佩克定于12月召开会议时对其构成挑战。
日内美国能源情报署(EIA)The weekly crude oil inventory report to be released will provide new clues for recent trading directions. by10month4Day of the Week, USAEIA原油库存增加了292.7万桶，市场预期截止10month4Increase in crude oil inventory for the current week277.2万桶。若库存增幅超预期，油价料将遭受更加强烈卖压。
USD Index
美元指数周三早盘小幅反弹至98.382水平后再度下滑，跌破98.00心理关口，触及一个多月低点97.86水平，主要是由于疲软的美国零售销售数据描绘出一幅黯淡的经济图景，为美联储进一步降息提供了新的证据。
美国商务部人口普查局周三公布的数据显示，9Monthly retail sales decrease0.3%, from2月份以来的首次下降，市场预期增长0.3%，8月数据由增长0.4%Upward cultivation leads to growth0.6%;9月核心零售销售持平，低于预期和前值增长0.3%;计入GDP的零售销售对照组下降0.1%Expected growth0.2%，8月数据由持平上修为增长0.2%。疲软的9月零售数据暗示制造业带动的疲弱可能蔓延至整体经济，加剧了对美国经济放缓的担忧。
与此同时，美联储周三公布的褐皮书显示，美国经济在9Month and10月初小幅至温和增长，但许多企业对未来几个月的前景更加悲观，这一最新迹象表明，美国贸易政策的影响继续给该国经济前景 蒙阴。
芝加哥联储主席埃文斯周三表示，对支持进一步降息的观点持开放态度，如果面临迫在眉睫的衰退，美联储将采取积极行动，当美联储在降息幅度上受到限制时，削弱增长或通胀的下行冲击将付出更大代价。并指出英国脱欧和美中贸易冲突的积极进展可能降低下行风险。货币市场利率的波动令人担忧，美联储不希望这成为货币政策的障碍。
此外，达拉斯联储主席卡普兰也指出，世界各地的企业都受到贸易紧张局势的影响。利率方面，他表示，“暂且等待，看看事情如何发展”。卡普兰本月初接受采访时称，“全球增长正在减速……我们正处在这个脆弱的时期，如果消费者保持强劲，我们就不会陷入衰退。”
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价跟随中轨走低;14and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators have declined.
4Hour chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices developing below the middle track;14and20Bearish moving average;Random indicators have declined.
1小时图：保利加通道趋平，油价在中轨下方发展;14and20The hourly moving average remains unchanged;Random indicators are rising.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days51.40-54.40Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above10month15Daily high point53.75After breaking through, we will explore further10month12Daily high point54.40And then10month11Daily high point54.90and9month26Daily low point55.40, and9month30Daily high point56.10and9month25Daily high point57.00;And the following supports attention10month15Daily low point52.40Falling below will lead to exploration10month10Daily low point52.10And then10month9Daily low point51.40and10month3Daily low point51.00, and8month7Daily low point50.50and1month9Daily low point49.90。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价跟随中轨走低;14and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators have declined.
4Hourly chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices approaching mid rail development;14and20Moderate decline in moving average;Random indicators have declined.
1小时图：保利加通道小幅上扬，油价徘徊在中轨附近;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;Random indicators are rising.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days57.75-60.65Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above10month16Daily high point59.70Breakthrough will be explored10month11Daily high point60.65And then9month30Daily high point61.30and9month27Daily high point62.70, and9month23Daily low point63.50and9month24Daily high point64.60;And the following supports attention10month15Daily low point58.00Falling below will lead to exploration10month10Daily low point57.75And then10month8Daily low point57.35and10month3Daily low point56.10, and8month7Daily low point55.85and1month4Daily low point55.30。
Follow on Thursday:
Weekly unemployment claims in the United States
U.S.A10Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A9月新屋开工及营建许可
U.S.A9Monthly industrial output
EIA每周原油库存变化
Chicago Fed Chairman Evans delivers a speech
美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话
New York Fed Chairman Williams delivers a speech