欧央行纪要显决策层分歧，脱欧进程助英镑一飞冲天

　　爱尔兰总理助攻，英镑一飞冲天(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达261Individual points, closing up1.77%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价隔夜上破布林中轨下行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to57-58一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方关注1.2505，下方关注布林中轨得失。
　　
Fundamentals:britain8Three months in a monthGDPMonthly ratenewspaper0.3%, better than expected0.1%及前值0%。但同一时间公布的工业产出数据表现不佳。英国国家统计局补充称，全球需求疲软正在损害制造业出口需求，而占主导地位的服务业仅在8月份的增长就降至零。昨日晚间，爱尔兰总理瓦拉德卡与英国首相约翰逊会谈，谈话后，瓦拉德卡发表的言论较为积极，称有可能达成脱欧协议，在海关问题上取得了很大进展；认为未来数周内，在10月底之前达成协议是有可能的；希望今天取得的进展足以恢复脱欧谈判。瓦拉德卡发言后，英国短期国债收益率于周四创下五周来最大单日涨幅。

　　

欧央行纪要彰显分歧，欧元录得被动上行(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar54Individual points, closing up0.23%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to52-53一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注1.1100，下方支撑关注布林中轨支撑（此前汇价五度上探布林中轨才告破位）。
　　
Fundamentals:9月，欧央行推出了一揽子货币宽松计划，将存款利率下调10个基点，宣布将实时分级利率，并将于11月重启QE。这场会议的声明表现出了极大的内部分歧。昨日，欧洲央行9月会议纪要公布：一些政策制定者感觉无法支持降息；当前QE遭到了一些成员的反对，他们认为这应该是最后的手段。纪要还特别指出委员对欧元区疲软的通胀压力的担忧，以及委员对强调以市场为基础的通胀预期持谨慎态度，部分委员对经济增速预期表示怀疑，认为过于乐观。纪要再度彰显了欧央行决策层的巨大分歧以及整体的悲观氛围，料后续货币政策仍将偏鸽，但实施过程中料出现更多争议。

　　

市场恐慌情绪缓解，千五争夺战仍焦灼(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached229Points, closing down1.16%，重回千五关口下方。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5趋于下行，金价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to47-48一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注如下图所示趋势线阻力，下方支撑关注如下图所示AB段23.6%Retreat position1489-90一线，此位置已至少三次支撑价格企稳。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌5.58%, closing on17.60。金价前瞻指标巴里克黄金公司(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day0.22%, closing on17.91。需注意近三个交易日巴里克黄金股价同金价有所背离分化。全球最大的黄金ETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto10month11Daily reduction of holdings2.05吨黄金，净持仓量缩减至921.71Tons.SPDR Gold Trustnear4次仓位变化中，有3次为减持。世界黄金协会10日披露全球各国中央银行8月购金的最新数据时称，全球各国央行黄金需求势不可挡。8月份，全球各国央行购金总量为62.1吨，而售金总量仅为4.8吨，从而净购金量达到57.3Tons.

　　

　　
　　
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