MBG Markets：美元指数一枝独秀，原油基本面仍显疲软

　　
数据疲软不阻强势美指，美指上测关键阻力(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达65Individual points, closing up0.57%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方,一度探至布林中轨位置但截至今亚盘未有明显破位；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to50-51一线运行。上方关注布林中轨位置得失，下方关注97.95frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A9Recorded by the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the month2，显著逊于前值4.8And market expectations4;9月纽约联储制造业新订单指数自前值6.7Reduce to3.5，纽约州制造业虽仍在扩张，但扩张速度显著放缓，且新订单萎靡暗示制造业前景黯淡。今日数据面可关注美国8月工业产出、制造业产出数据，此类数据将从产出角度反映工业、制造业的健康状况，为美联储近期相当关注的数据分项。据CMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to1.75%-2.00%的概率为64.6%，维持当前利率的概率为35.4%。
　　
袭击致油价飙涨，大摩提醒基本面仍疲软(UKOIL)
　　
Technical aspect:Brentcrude oil上一交易日跳空高开收涨14.27%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to70-71一线超买区间下沿附近运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注如下图所示AB段行情的76.4%（61.8%Add38.2%And23.6%的差值）回调位70.80、，下方支撑关注67.60。
　　
Fundamentals:昨日，由于沙特阿美两处设施遇袭，布伦特原油大幅收涨。沙特领导的联盟发言人称，对沙特遇袭事件的调查正在进行中，初步迹象显示袭击武器并非来自也门，而是伊朗。由于突发袭击事件，摩根士丹利将第四季度布伦特原油价格预估上调5dollar/桶，至65dollar/桶；并将2020年第一季度预期上调2.50USD, to62.50dollar/桶。但该行同时表示，市场对周末袭击的反应适度，显示原油基本面整体“疲软”。
　　
日元避险效应不显，高盛看好日元后市(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day69Individual points, closing up0.37%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续贴近布林上轨附近运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to62一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注109.00Below support attention107.20。
　　
Fundamentals:韩国产业通商资源部的官员15日称，韩国最快将在从16日开始的一周内“正式撤销日本‘受信任贸易伙伴’地位”，即把日本从获得贸易便利“白色清单”中除名。高盛发布报告称，日元仍是避险资产中最被低估的品种，仍将其视为对冲全球经济增长风险时具有吸引力的选择；日元多头在本周面临的主要风险是日本央行利率决议，日央行决策者们可能开始担忧海外央行宽松对日本国内产生的影响，并且可能采取更为鸽派的立场；但高盛仍预计日央行在本次会议上按兵不动的可能性更大。
　　
　　
　　
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