MBG Markets：风险情绪好转日元承压，仓位数据暗示商品货币反弹

　　美伊关系缓和，避险货币热度退潮(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day50Individual points, closing up0.38%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方，回踩多测试MA5后企稳；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to64-65一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。建议以连续两个交易日收于5日均线上方为滞涨信号。上方阻力关注108.70Below support attention107.00。
　　
Fundamentals:美国总统特朗普称，将考虑放宽对伊朗的制裁。前美国国家安全顾问博尔顿被解雇，外媒分析认为，直接原因是其不同意特朗普为与伊朗总统鲁哈尼会面而放松对伊朗制裁。美伊关系缓和，避险情绪退潮，使得作为避险货币的日元昨日延续下行趋势。日本首相安倍晋三11日改组内阁及自民党高层。19名内阁成员中，人选或职位有变动的多达17人。分析人士认为，此次内阁“大换血”更多体现安倍对亲信和自民党内各派阀支持者的“论功行赏”；与修宪相比，经济和外交才是新内阁的当务之急。
　　
仓位数据暗示走强，澳元持续上行(AUD/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:澳元兑美元上一交易日震幅达36Individual points, closing up0.25%，延续近期涨势。日线BOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to64一线运行，运行斜率较小稍趋上走高。上方阻力关注0.6905Below support attention0.6830。
　　
Fundamentals:根据摩根士丹利仓位综合报告（结合CFTC、Toshin、TFX、Beta、ETF、交易情绪指标）：自9month2日以来，资管经理削减了AUD空仓，而杠杆化基金小幅增加了AUD空仓；AUD的交易情绪指标稍有改善，脱离极度看衰水平；澳洲楼市数据的好转，以及市场对亚洲国家乐观情绪的抬头，可能推动AUD空头回补行情出现。加拿大皇家银行：澳大利亚经济增速创金融危机以来最低水平；澳洲联储在今年年中左右降息是合理的，且预计还会出台更多宽松政策。
　　
月度报告传递危险信号，贵金属延续跌势(USOIL)
　　
Technical aspect:WTIprimary油上一交易日震幅达268Points, closing down3.05%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价贴近布林下轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线稍趋走平，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to52-53一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。油价当前回踩下图趋势线位置附近，若成功保持于趋势线上方，有望达成“突破在外，充分回吐，保持在外”的多头突破三原则。上方阻力看58.75，下方支撑关注趋势线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:欧佩克周三公布的月度crude oil市场报告显示，欧佩克8Increase in monthly crude oil production13.610000 barrels/Solstice297410000 barrels/日，其中的增幅主要由沙特和伊朗贡献。欧佩克对原油需求前景持悲观态度，表示因今年上半年全球需求数据不及预期，以及预计在今年剩余时间内经济增速预期将放缓，将2019年原油需求增速下调810000 barrels to10210000 barrels/Day,2020年全球原油需求增速下调6万桶至为10810000 barrels/日。美伊关系有所缓和，暗示将有更多来自伊朗的原油流入国际市场，对油价构成打压。
　　
　　
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