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强劲薪资对冲脱欧风险,美指连续震荡整理(GBP/USD)
技术面:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达73Individual points, closing up0.09%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口,布林中轨趋于上行,三线有望构筑上行通道线,汇价贴近布林上轨运行,布林轨道信赖区间显然对涨幅有所抑制;日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行,汇价运行于MA5上方;日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大,势能较前一交易日增大;日线RSI(14)to60-61一线运行,运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方关注1.2440,下方关注布林中轨得失。
基本面:昨日欧盘时段,英国首相特别顾问卡明斯被问及是否英国会按时脱欧时,表示理所当然,使得英镑短线急跌70余点。英国8Monthly unemployment rate recorded3.3%,较前值小幅上升。英国7Three months in a monthILO失业率回落至3.8%lower1975代以来的最低水平。英国7月三个月包括红利的平均工资年率录得4%,远优于市场预期及前值3.7%, for2008年以来最大增幅;但职位空缺数降至2017年年末以来新低。
强劲劳工市场数据助力下,英镑收复日内跌幅。
惠誉下调欧元区经济展望,欧元窄幅震荡(EUR/USD)
技术面:欧元兑美元上一交易日震幅达29Individual points, closing up0.03%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行,汇价多次测试布林中轨位置但终收于中轨下方;日线MA5,10构金叉,MA5,10双线稍趋走平,可以10日均线为下方支撑;日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大;日线RSI(14)to45-46Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.1000Below support attention10日均线位置。
基本面:惠誉下调欧元区今明两年的经济增速至1.1%(此前预期分别为1.2%and1.3%),称欧元区经济增速预期的风险仍在于英国无协议脱欧的可能性,若出现该情况,则可能导致2020年英国出现显著的经济衰退,同时欧元区亦受负面拖累。法国7月工业产出月率录得0.3%,逊于市场预期0.5,但较前值-2.3%大幅好转;7月制造业产出月率录得0.3%,同样较前值-2.2%大幅好转。从此前IHS Markit发布数据来看,几大欧元区国家核心横向对比,法国制造业表现出了超乎寻常的强劲韧性。
金价隔夜延续跌势,花旗豪言看涨至二千(XAU/USD)
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached166Points, closing down0.62%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)Tending to open up, the Bollinger track tends to decline, and gold prices continue to be under pressure below the track; Daily lineMA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于下行,金价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较大,势能较前一交易日增大;日线RSI(14)to43-44Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above5日均线位置,下方支撑关注1478。
基本面:恐慌指数VIX指数上一交易日收跌0.46%, closing on15.20; Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌0.92%, closing on17.25。花旗银行对金价前景展望充满信心,认为随着全球陷入衰退的风险加剧,金价将在更长时间内越发强劲,黄金再次测试纪录高位的可能性越来越大,预计将上破2000dollar/盎司。有数据显示,美元占全球外储的比例从次贷危机以来显著下滑,各国央行正持续扩大foreign exchange储备中黄金储备的比例。
Risk Statement and Important Notes
交易外汇保证金和差价合约交易涉及高风险,未必适合所有投资者。阁下可能会在交易时遇到损失超过本金的情况。
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