MBG Markets：特朗普烟雾弹致黄金回落，商业预期萎靡施压欧元

　　
耐用品订单喜忧参半，美元重回升势(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达48Individual points, closing up0.44%，收复上周五超61.8%的跌幅。日线BOLL(20)布林三轨趋于走平，汇价重返中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5,10双线稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to53-54一线运行，运行斜率较小稍趋下行。上方阻力关注98.80Below support attention98.00Near.
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A7月耐用品订单环比增长2.1%，优于预期1.1%。 U.S.A7月份核心资本（即扣除飞机后的非国防资本耐用品）运输量录得近三年来最大降幅。这表明商业投资仍疲软。耐用品订单数据表明第三季度GDP预期有可能遭下调。高盛研究员称，美联储官员现在在制定货币政策决策时，似乎比过去更重视债券市场定价；预测在接下来的两次会议上美联储将分别降息25个基点，但面临更多或更大幅度的降息风险。
　　
德国商业预期萎靡，欧元承压荣枯线下方(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar59Points, closing down0.38%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价测试布林中轨无果后回落；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较小，势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to43-44一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。布林中轨分水岭效应明显，上方阻力关注中轨位置，下方支撑建议关注1.1060。
　　
Fundamentals:Germany8monthIFO商业景气指数录得94.3，逊于前值及预期。德国8monthIFO商业预期指数录得91.3, creating2009year6月以来最低水平。机构评论称，德国工业处于衰退，服务业也随之衰退；工业企业上一次表现出这种悲观情绪是在2009年经济危机之时。昨日，意大利五星运动党和中左翼政党民主党进行组阁谈判，有可能就孔特在新政府中重新担任总理一事达成共识。今日意大利总统马塔雷拉将于周二和周三与各党派领导人会晤。意大利政局动荡有望在短时间内结束。
　　
特朗普推特放烟雾弹，金价回补跳空缺口(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached242Points, closing down1.21%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价贴近布林上轨运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5趋于走高，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日稍有缩减；日线RSI(14)to62-63一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注下图所示AB段61.8%外部拓展位1566，下方支撑关注布林中轨位置。
　　
Fundamentals:according toCFTC持仓报告，截止至8month14Solstice8month20日当周，投机者持有的黄金投机性净多头增加9903Hand contract, to299993手合约，表明投资者看多黄金的意愿升温。恐慌指数VIX指数上一交易日收跌5.01%, closing on19.32； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day0.57%, closing on19.25。美国总统特朗普在G7峰会期间发言称，中美两国的经贸磋商团队已经通话，中方表示希望重返谈判桌。此消息随后被中方辟谣。但市场在特朗普发言后迅速买涨美指，卖空黄金。
　　
　　
　　
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