MBG Markets: BeautyPMI数据拖累美指表现，欧央行纪要巩固鸽派基调

　　
manufacturingPMI数据爆雷，美元指数震荡微跌(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达33Points, closing down0.05%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平，汇价盘整于MA5附近；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减，DIFF、DEABilinear in0轴上方平缓运行，表明多空力量趋于平衡；日线RSI(14)to60-61一线运行。上方阻力关注前高99.00整数关口，下方支撑关注布林中轨98.30Near.
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIInitial value recorded49.9，若终值符合初值水平，将为2009year9月以来首次跌至50下方，显示出制造业企业持续受到全球经济放缓影响。最令人担忧的是，8月的调查数据提供了一个明确的信号——制造业和服务业的PMI仍远逊色于2019年初表现，美国第三季度经济增长将继续放缓。费城联储主席哈克称，不预计需要再次降息，不赞同采取保险性降息的言论；对于7月的降息，个人不太情愿。堪萨斯城联储主席乔治称，个人来看没有准备好提供更多政策宽松；在7月降息后美联储处于中性或平衡宽松状态。
　　
欧央行纪要巩固鸽派基调，欧元低位盘整(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar50Points, closing down0.06%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10The double track tends to decline; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to35-36一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。指标层面，EURUSD未见明显反弹信号，上方阻力关注10日均线位置，下方支撑建议关注1.1025。
　　
Fundamentals:昨日晚间，欧洲央行发布货币政策会议纪要：下行风险更加普遍，可能需要下调预期；经济放缓的时间可能比之前预想的更长；担心制造业疲软最终将影响服务业；对长期通胀预期下滑感到担忧。评论认为，欧洲央行进一步暗示，其将于9月份的会议上推出一系列大规模刺激计划（可能包括降息和资产购买）。德国8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value recorded43.6，优于前值及市场预期。虽然表现略微改善，但仍然不足以消除第三季度GDP增速出现萎缩的威胁。
　　
约翰逊态度稍缓，英镑迅速拉升(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达165Individual points, closing up0.99%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价一度运行至布林上轨上方极端超买位置；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to51-52一线运行。上方阻力关注下图所示AB段38.2%Callback bit1.2300Below support attention23.6%Callback bit1.2200。
　　
Fundamentals:英国首相约翰逊日前要求欧盟重启英国脱欧协议的谈判，将于21Rihe22日两日先后访问德国和法国，争取两国领导人支持。由于欧盟20日断然拒绝重新谈判，表示英国无法直接向欧盟提出任何实际方案，需英国新首相“约翰逊”游说诸国，方有望重启谈判。近期，约翰逊态度有所缓和，重新强调希望达成协议脱欧。英国脱欧进程的迟缓，让市场难以相信英国央行的加息预期。据CME“英国央行观察”：市场预计英国央行9Monthly interest rate maintained at0.75%The constant probability is97.0%；11Monthly interest rate maintained at0.75%The constant probability is67.9%Interest rate reduction25Bps to0.5%的概率为31.2%。
　　
　　
　　
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