Wenxi Dianjin: Gold and crude oil prices have continued to decline,7.18Analysis of Gold Crude Oil Operations

Wen Xi Dian Jin:goldcrude oilContinuously declining,7.18Analysis of Gold Crude Oil Operations


Message surface:


On Tuesday, investors were watching Powell's testimony in Congress, which stated that the best way forward is to maintain gradual interest rate hikes. It is difficult to predict the impact of trade policies on the economy, but long-term high tariffs are detrimental to the economy. The risks currently facing the US economy are roughly balanced, and the Federal Reserve is aware of the risks of raising interest rates too quickly or too slowly. After the testimony was released, gold briefly rose, but then the price of gold fell1230At the critical level, the US dollar index recovered its previous decline. Both long and short sides of gold are also involved1230Intense clashes erupted near the checkpoint. Just before Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was about to testify in Congress, the gold market was hit by a "surprise attack" of massive sell orders, testing the sharp drop in gold prices1230Pass. The data shows that,COMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract in Beijing Time21:18-21:21The trading volume within four minutes is11611The total value of trading contracts exceeds14USD100mn Although Powell's speech briefly boosted gold, it ultimately fell behind1230At the critical juncture, gold prices hit a nearly one-year low. As of the close, gold futures have fallen1.10%Report1227.4dollar/ounce.



Gold trend analysis:


From a technical perspective, the continuity of continuous declines is strong at the daily level, while the current trend of gold prices is extremely weak,MACDFalling, increasing volume, and strong momentum,RSIThe indicators are also constantly declining, and short-term short positions are still the main trend. The short-term decline in gold has not continued for the time being, but this does not affect the bearish thinking. Yesterday, gold fell and rebounded the most1234.4After the first line, it fell again, which is also the focus of today's attention. The continuation of the weakness depends on whether gold can withstand pressure and fall back here today. In the morning, gold opened at a low level and fluctuated, far from the resistance level. For now, it is1230Nearby pressure to enter, follow below1220The position is still mainly short-term within the day, as the price has already oversold and there is still a high possibility of the market fluctuating at a low level.


4After hours of consolidation, it broke the level and closed lower, and the short-term moving average formed resistance again with a dead cross downward. Combined with the last high point of last night's rebound1234.At the same time, it is also at the breakthrough point1236.Short term explanation1234-1236A barrier pressure has been formed. If the weakness continues, today it will revolve around1236The downward pressure continues to decline. Maintain the trend of short-term short selling, considering the relatively low price, short-term short selling is advisable for intraday short selling.


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


1Suggest a fallback1220-1222Take long positions in batches and strictly cut losses1318, Objective1228-1230frontline;


2Suggest a rebound1230-1232Short in batches, stop loss1236, Objective1226-1224frontline.



Analysis of crude oil trend


Crude oil has maintained an extremely weak downward trend this week, with multiple high platform dives and continuous price declines, which is also a manifestation of bullish profit taking. The weekly chart fell directly with a large bearish candlestick, and its price also touched5、10The position of the weekly chart and the formation of short-term support for a small bottoming out and rebound indicate that the price has a certain supporting effect here; From the daily chart, there was a cliff like decline last Wednesday, which led to a rebound correction trend in the following two days without significant volatility, and the price was still hindered5Daily moving average and10The daily moving average and the contraction of the Bollinger Bands also suggest that the market will maintain a volatile and bearish trend in the future; However, with a significant drop in prices, there will inevitably be a demand for adjustment in the future market, so the strategy is still to rebound and short for this reason.


From a technical perspective,4The hourly break continues with two waves of downward adjustment. Of course, the current decline is treated as an adjustment, not a trend, but a correction in the upward trend. The space is relatively larger, after all4Hour level adjustment space. along with69.20The break of this level translates into today's resistance, and today's rebound continues to see a downward trend under pressure around this level. But yesterday, there was still a significant release of the Great Yin space. Today, after the inertia decline, there will continue to be low volatility, and prices will fall too quickly. The indicator cannot keep up with the speed of up and down, and it is easy to pause and fluctuate after the big negative line, so today the short-term rebound is still empty. So, in the short term, the focus is on crude oil68.1One line of resistance, pay attention below67.2Frontline support, break through and continue to focus below67.0Support at the critical level, Wen Xi's personal suggestion for today's operation is to continue rebounding at high levels. In terms of operation, Teacher Wenxi suggests that crude oil should mainly rebound at high altitudes, supplemented by long positions during pullbacks, with a focus on the upper level68.00-68.10One line of resistance, pay attention below67.50-67.20Frontline support.





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