Nie Xinyan:5.24Interest rate hikes set the stage for a decline in the US dollar, causing fluctuations in gold and crude oil

Nie Xinyan:5.24加息定局美元下挫，goldcrude oil陷入震荡


Message surface:
　　
Wednesday night22:30United States Energy Information Administration（EIA）Published US to5month18Day and WeekEIAIncrease in crude oil inventory577.8Ten thousand barrels, expected to decrease156.7Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is a decrease140.4Ten thousand barrels. After the data is released,12Billion US dollars and15Two waves of selling orders worth 100 million US dollars hit the market one after another, and the US and Brazilian oil companies plummeted in a straight line.


         Thursday morning2:00Federal ReserveFOMCThe meeting minutes show that the majority of committee members expressed that the next interest rate hike may come soon, which consolidates the market's support for6Expectations for monthly interest rate hikes. However, some members stated that they will tolerate inflation exceeding the target level for a certain period of time, which is interpreted by the market as a dovish signal. For the already established interest rate hike, this is a favorable aspect for gold.


In addition, the Trump administration has already“232”Under the regulations, taxes are imposed on imported steel and aluminum products, and now the government may initiate measures to import automobiles on the grounds of national security“232”Investigation may ultimately result in the implementation of new tariffs, with the highest or highest tariff rates25%。 Trump previously mentioned the idea of tariffs on automobile imports multiple times during the meeting. The plan is still in its early stages and is likely to face strong opposition from numerous stakeholders such as foreign trading partners and domestic imported car dealers. The source stated that if the“232”The US Department of Commerce needs to conduct a lengthy investigation into the imposition of tariffs under the regulations.


Technical analysis of gold:

The overall trend of gold yesterday remained volatile, indicating that this week1288-1296Within the range, high altitude and low altitude can basically lead to profitable exit. Gold opened slightly higher in early trading today, with short-term resistance above1296Nearby, aggressive early morning positions can be built with short-term short orders, below the target1289-1288。 On the daily line, multiple small entitiesKThe line arrangement shows a clear trend of volatility, but it is expected that this range will fully open in the next two trading days, so intraday operations focus on upward and downward resistance and support. The trend of the four hour line in the Bollinger belt channel is relatively stable, and in terms of the moving averageMA5AndMA10Entangled together, the hours are basically synchronized online.


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


       1Upper resistance level1296-1298Suggest building a warehouse with empty orders, target1289-1288；
       2Lower support1288Suggest having more backhands nearby, target1295Near.


Analysis of crude oil trend:

Crude oil inEIAIn the case of major bearish conditions, the lowest point of short-term decline is reached71.15Nearby, it began to rebound again, which is more in line with the roller coaster trend of crude oil. From the current increase in production on the news surface, the bullish oil prices have been well contained. On the daily line, there have also been two consecutive negative periods that have not been seen for a long time, which is a good start for bearish positions. The daily moving averageMA5andMA10There are also signs of slowing down. At the same time, considering the sanctions sentiment of the United States towards Iran, the current short position of crude oil has not yet gained an absolute advantage. Therefore, in terms of daily operations, it will be temporarily handled according to broad fluctuations.


　Suggestions for crude oil operation:


      1Above72Nearby empty orders building positions, stop loss0.4, Objective71.2；
      2Below this week's low point71Multiple backhand orders nearby, stop loss0.4.target71.8。


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writing/Nie Xinyan  VX：xin19898