此刻论金：投资黄金、原油最常见的几种跳空

此刻论金：投资gold、crude oil最常见的几种跳空






　　跳空在日语中叫“窗口”，英语是“gap”，是指汇率在快速波动时产生的曲线的最低价与曲线的最高价之间有断层。有人说“跳空”迟早会填补的，这并非是绝对的，需要从图形上区别对待：有的跳空具有技术意义，有的则很一般，这要从跳空的部位、大小来判断市场趋势之强弱和真假之突破。
　　跳空是判断趋势的有力依据。


　　(1)跳空的形态：


　　(a)普通性跳空――对预测趋势无太大帮助，可以忽略它。因它是在交易量极少的情况下或是在波幅窄时所产生的。


　　(b)突破性跳空――一般发生在交易量大时或重要价位被突破后或新的大波动之初。当汇率跳空口大并远离原价位时，则显示其真正的突破开始了，所以跳空口越大将来的波动越激烈。


　　(c)持续性跳空――连续发生2次以上的反映市场以中等交易量在顺利的发展。在上升(或下降)趋势中，这些跳空在今后市场的调整时将成为支持(抵抗)区。因为此跳空群一般出现在整个趋势的中间，所以可利用沿着该涨(或跌)的方向在未来上升(或下降)的幅度中将翻一番的规律来进行交易。


　　(d)消耗性跳空――也叫衰歇跳空，一般出现在趋势的尾声，是急速上升(或下降)的回光返照，所以在随后的市场将出现转折。该跳空往往是在(a)


　　(b)跳空出现之后，并且当被填补之时，就是趋势将衰歇之日，这时应积极采取措施避免损失。
　　
　　(2)运用法则：
　　(a)消耗性跳空和普通性跳空在短期内有可能被填补，而突破性跳空和持续性跳空就有可能不被填补，所以分析突破性和持续性跳空比较有意义。


　　(b)突破性跳空出现后会不会马上被填补可以从交易量的变化来判断：在突破性跳空形成之前，如交易量大，但形成之后交易量反而减少时，快速填补该跳空的机会只有一半；在突破性跳空形成之后，如交易量大并且持续，则短期填补该跳空的可能性将会降低。


　　(c)消耗性跳空的出现一般伴随着的是交易量最大(或是第二天出现)。但当交易量减少时，则显示市场的交易(多投或空投)力量已充分的释放并且开始衰歇，这时价格可能会朝相反的方向波动。


　　(d)在上升或下降的过程中，跳空出现的越多，越显示其趋势接近结尾，这时投资者们应该谨慎交易


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US crude oil: fixed margin400USD in one hand/1000Bucket, Fluctuation0.04USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Silver: Fixed margin600USD in one hand/5000Ounces, fluctuating0.016USD return, fluctuating0.005USD profit and loss25USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


US Gold: Margin Estimation600USD in one hand/100Ounces, fluctuating0.4USD return, fluctuating0.1USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Natural gas: fixed deposit400USD in one hand/10000mmBtuFluctuation0.·004USD return, fluctuating0.001USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Brent crude oil: fixed margin400USD in one hand/1000Bucket, Fluctuation0.04USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Meijing Copper: Fixed deposit600USD in one hand/25000Pound, fluctuation0.0020USD return, fluctuating0.0005Profit and loss12.5USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Hang Seng Index: Fixed Margin600USD in one hand/50Hong Kong dollar, fluctuation4HKD payback, fluctuation1Profit and loss of Hong Kong dollars50Hong Kong dollars, no spread, no overnight fee.
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